League Two seems to be the most open and competitive division in the EFL. With the majority of sides having played eleven games, there have been six sides topping the table at some point during the last couple of months.
The competitive nature of the league has meant that the sides currently sitting in the automatic promotion places have, unusually, picked up less than two points per game. The only team hitting two points per game sit in tenth place in the table: AFC Wimbledon. This article will take a look at whether the Wombles can sustain this across the season in order to be competing for automatic promotion at the end of the season.
How have AFC Wimbledon started the season?
As mentioned, Wimbledon are hitting the two points per game figure with sixteen points after eight games. Despite having a number of games postponed due to issues with their pitch from flooding at the end of September they have started the season impressively.
One defeat in their opening six games, coming at the hands of EFL new-boys Bromley, was coupled with the Wombles taking maximum points from games against Colchester United, Cheltenham Town, Fleetwood Town and Milton Keynes Dons. A 0-0 draw at Bradford City came before the pitch damage which led to the postponements of home games against Crewe Alexandra and Accrington Stanley and a reversal of the Carabao Cup tie against Newcastle United to St James Park.
A second defeat of the season occurred at Salford City at the start of the month before a first home match in four weeks resulted in a 4-0 victory over Carlisle United. Their form so far suggests that they could be among the best in the division but tough upcoming trips to Notts County and Port Vale will test this theory.
What makes AFC Wimbledon automatic promotion candidates?
Arguably the strongest attribute of Johnnie Jackson’s Wimbledon side that could put them in a position to challenge for automatic promotion is their defensive statistics.
The Wombles have the best defensive record in League Two having conceded, on average, 0.6 goals per match and have kept five clean sheets in the eight games so far this season. Since the defeat at Bromley in the second gameweek of the season, Wimbledon have conceded just one goal which came in their defeat at Salford.
Not only are they not conceding goals but Jackson’s side are giving away very few chances in their games. The club has the league’s best record when it comes to expected goals (xG) conceded with 4.7 meaning that they are restricting their opponents to little or no attempts on goal.
Wimbledon are not afraid to get stuck into their opposition either to ensure their goal is protected. The South London side are top for successful tackles per match with an average of twelve and have committed on average 15.1 fouls per game which is, again, the most in the league.
Another reason which could see the Wombles compete at the top of the division come the end of the season is their impressive home record. Wimbledon have won their last six league matches at Plough Lane with an aggregate score of 18-3. The last time they won six consecutive games at home in the league was at Kingsmeadow during the Conference South season in 2008.
Their home form stretches back to last season with two defeats in the fifteen home league games since the start of 2024. Being able to go into away games having picked up the number of points they have at Plough Lane will no doubt provide a good platform to continue their run of two points-per-game throughout the rest of the season.
What could derail an automatic promotion push for AFC Wimbledon?
Despite an impressive defence and home record at Plough Lane, there are some signs to suggest that an automatic promotion place may be a step too far for the Wombles.
Despite scoring the fifth most goals per match in League Two with 1.6 goals, it is the expected goals figure that suggests tougher times could be ahead. The Wombles are ranked sixteenth for expected goals with 10.7 xG and have outscored this figure with thirteen goals so far this season.
This might suggest that they are incredibly clinical with their finishing but on the flip side could suggest that they are riding their luck in attacking areas. This stat coupled with the fact that their attacking options are not individuals who are likely to reach the top of the goalscoring charts, could derail their attempts to finish in the top three.
Their attacking forwards consist of Joe Pigott who has not scored double figures in a season since playing for the Wombles in 2020-21, Matty Stevens who over the past three seasons has scored twelve goals, Omar Bugiel who over the past four seasons has an average of seven goals per season and Josh Kelly who has played half a season of EFL football in his career having singed from Solihull Moors in January.
A side doesn’t need to have a striker scoring twenty goals in order to be in automatic contention but should Wimbledon’s defensive solidity start to fade away, those wins they have picked up may turn to draws or defeats.
In addition, a points total of sixteen from eight games is undoubtedly a good start to the season but they have been handed an easier fixture list when compared to other sides in the fourth tier. So far, Jackson’s side have played three of the bottom five sides and the average league position of their opponents is sixteenth.
Are AFC Wimbledon automatic promotion candidates?
Eight games is too few to definitively say whether a side will be in the automatic promotion places come the end of the season. However, AFC Wimbledon have a strong foundation to build upon this season.
If the Wombles can sustain their impressive defensive statistics they will undoubtedly be challenging at the top of League Two for a return to the third tier. An incredibly open and competitive league means that a points per game record of two points is likely to see a team promoted come the end of the season.
The South London’s next five fixtures could give a greater indication on their standing come the end of the season. Facing Notts County, Port Vale and Barrow away from home will prove a stern test for Jackson’s side but should they come through it with a healthy points return, they will no doubt be sitting higher up in the table going into the festive period.
Despite questions around their ability to consistently find the back of the net with the forwards at their disposal, the average goals scored in League Two by sides winning promotion over the past twelve seasons is between 61 and 83 goals. Taking this into account, it suggests that it is not the sides that score the most goals that get promoted from the fourth tier especially given the average was increased significantly by last season’s promoted sides scoring 96, 89 and 90 goals each.
Therefore based upon their strong defensive statistics and impressive home record, it is likely that AFC Wimbledon will be competing for, at least, a place in the play-offs and therefore knocking on the door for automatic promotion come the end of the season.