The 2024/25 Premier League season, has granted us several shocks and surprises so far, but could Chelsea be able to provide a major shock to Liverpool’s title aspirations?
From Brentford’s rise to the top half of the table to Nottingham Forest entering Champions League places in match-day 16. However, Chelsea’s sudden surge this season has been an interesting one. Why is this the case?
Italian coach Enzo Maresca joined the Blues in the summer of this season. Taking over from the now head coach of the U.S.A’s men’s national team, Mauricio Pochettino.
Despite their outstandingly inconsistent performances throughout the season. Chelsea were able to finish in sixth place, following a late run of positive form under the Argentinian.
This led to some doubters of Pochettino, slightly turning into believers. Taking a team that was all over the place, an extensive roster of players in the squad, and Poch stabilized it.
On the other side of the coin, others felt like they had seen enough to suggest that they couldn’t progress under this coach.
This was a thought that was shared by the Chelsea hierarchy, as Pochettino was replaced by the former Leicester City coach, Enzo Maresca.
Following the Italian’s successful season in the second division of English football. As Leicester City were promoted back to the top of the food chain.
Since his arrival, Maresca has been able to find the right tune for his team in the domestic league. Performing in a manner that Chelsea fans can admire, while also grabbing the all-important three points in games.
This leads us to a couple of questions, Has Chelsea been that good? Are they a genuine threat to Arne Slot’s Liverpool?
How good have Chelsea been?
The 44-year-old manager has assured fans on numerous occasions, that Chelsea are not title challengers.
Although the points system may suggest otherwise, as the Blues are only two points behind Liverpool. Granted, Liverpool have a game in hand, let’s compare Chelsea between the two sides fighting it out.
In Possession:
Beginning with attacking numbers. Before their latest 2-1 win over Brentford, Chelsea was the best goal-scoring side in the league. Ranking up 35 goals in 15 games, now let’s compare those numbers to Liverpool and Arsenal.
Well, both clubs rank in joint fourth place for goals scored, finding the back of the net 29 times. (Liverpool have a game in hand on both teams)
However, let’s dive deeper. When comparing the quality of chances that all three clubs produce, Chelsea once again ranks in first place. Accumulating a total of 32.6XG (Expected goals, in contrast to Liverpool’s 29.16XG (third) and the Gunners’ 26.26XG (sixth).
To emphasize this point even more, Chelsea ranks (1st) in non-penalty goals and expected goals too. This concludes that in regards to their attacking statistics, they are right up there.
Out of possession:
Moving on the the defensive side of things. Once again, this is before match-day 16 took place, and Chelsea conceded 18 goals. Which is joint, (3rd) along with Nottingham Forest and Manchester United. Who are they behind?
You guessed it, Liverpool (11) and Arsenal (15).
What is interesting is the expected goals on the defensive side of things. As both title rivals are in the top two, with the Reds accumulating 13.68, (1st) and 14.32 (2nd).
Where is Chelsea in this? The London club has conceded a total of 21.97 expected goals, which means that they sit in (11th).
In addition to them ranking in (19th), for errors leading to shots, and joint (16th) for errors leading to goals.
Can Chelsea challenge for the title?
Following the numbers mentioned above. What can be concluded is that Enzo Maresca’s side are impressive on the offensive side of things.
Scoring the most amount of goals in the league, while not fully relying on the brilliance of Cole Palmer. As that was the case last season, they now are free-flowing in the attacking half.
With Nicolas Jackson scoring eight goals, Noni Madueke with five, and others contributing too. Therefore, the side has a nice balance of the variety of their goal scorers.
However, their defensive numbers indicate that they still have work to do in that department. This could be a factor as to why the Italian coach is persistent in saying that his team is not yet ready.
As he reiterated once again last night “It’s not about how many games we win… it’s about being realistic. There are things we have to do better”.
Another reason is the number of players that have been in a situation so high up the table before. The side is composed of very young players, others who have experience at the top level.
Nonetheless, only a handful of players have been in title races before. The likes of Jadon Sancho and Christopher Nkunku in Germany.
In stark contrast to their rivals, who their respective squads have been in these types of situations for years.
Verdict
Despite all of the mentioned factors that could mean Chelsea aren’t in this race.
At the end of the day, they are two points off Liverpool with favorable games ahead. Their quest can be unlikely, but it doesn’t mean that it’s impossible.