Are Norwich City Championship Play-Off Contenders?

After a convincing win away at Watford on Saturday afternoon, Norwich City are currently sitting in 8th place in the Championship, with a playoff push becoming a likely ambition. Considering Norwich failed to register a shot on target against Leeds & Sheffield United two games ago, it summarises the free-flowing nature of the Championship, and how quickly things change. 

With two turbulent prior campaigns with David Wagner and Dean Smith at the helm, Johannes Hoff Thorup has revitalised the fanbase. The Danish manager has introduced an aesthetic possession-based style of play and recruited young players to align with his vision. Some examples include Oscar Schwartau, Callum Doyle, Ante Crnac, etc. 

Those exciting young players have been spearheaded by reliable experienced heads, including Kenny McLean, Shane Duffy & Angus Gunn. With those experienced individuals providing fantastic availability to the side, Norwich City has a healthy diversity of age profiles, which aids their playoff push tremendously. 

The return of Sargent

When Josh Sargent returned to the team, an upturn in results was inevitable. The American has scored three goals in two games following a long absence since October. 

Although the 24-year-old forward provides vital goals for the side, his general performance level increases Norwich’s productivity in the attacking third. 

Across the last couple of league games, Sargent has applied his sublime intelligence to the team, executing marauding runs forward, in behind opposition defenders. This has been an important factor for the Canaries, as Norwich lacked those creative forward movements from their makeshift strikers. 

Not only has Sargent been effective at stretching an opposition defence in behind, but he’s also been sensational at dropping deep towards the ball, containing defenders and retaining possession for the team confidently. Sargent’s physical capabilities have allowed Norwich to gain territory up the pitch, resulting in frequent passing combinations being displayed. 

Given that Borja Sainz is set to return to the team next week, after his lengthy six-game ban, Sargent could establish a goalscoring relationship with the Spaniard, potentially propelling Norwich higher up the table. 

However, the American must stay fit, otherwise, Norwich’s playoff hopes significantly decrease.

High scoring Canaries

Norwich City is currently the league’s second-highest goalscorers (49), with Leeds United only scoring more throughout the campaign.

One specific individual that’s contributed significantly to Norwich’s goal tally, is Spanish forward, Borja Sainz. Sainz has accumulated 15 goals across the season, resulting in the Spaniard leading the top goal scorer charts. 

Although Sainz & Sargent’s individual quality has greatly assisted Norwich, their game model has become reliable. According to FBref, the Canaries have produced the fourth-best non-penalty xG (41) across the division, highlighting their evident creativity. 

Norwich have also backed up their attacking proficiency, outperforming their non-penalty XG – scoring seven additional goals. 

Johannes Hoff Throup has implemented an effective settled possession structure, consisting of multiple player rotations. This has enabled Norwich City to create numerous attacking overloads in critical areas of the pitch. 

Despite Norwich looking toothless from an attacking sense during a selection of games across the season, the Dane doesn’t measure performance by the volume of shots at goal. 

Thorup prioritises progressing the ball into dangerous zones of the pitch, meaning he’d rather his teams play an extra pass than shoot from a difficult angle.

This rationale from Throup has escalated to Norwich winning numerous home games by big margins — thumping Watford, Plymouth, Hull City & Swansea, by at least three goal margins. 

Favourable fixtures 

Another aspect favouring Norwich’s promotion push is their fixture list until the end of the season, as they face opponents below them in the league regularly – especially at Carrow Road. For example, the Canaries have yet to play any of the three newly promoted clubs from League One at home, increasing their chances of collecting points. 

Furthermore, the Canaries only have to play one of the top four sides at home until the end of the season, with Sunderland the only automatic promotion candidate yet to face Norwich City at Carrow Road. It’s also worth noting that Norwich have played Leeds and Sheffield United twice. 

However, Norwich will still be tested on the road thoroughly, as they have to travel to Middlesbrough, Burnley, Blackburn & Bristol City before the climax of the season. This could be the deciding factor for Norwich City, as their away form is considerably inferior to their home form – accumulating ten points less on their travels, compared to playing at Carrow Road. 

Players returning 

Not only has Josh Sargent returned for the Canaries, but they’re set to have multiple other players back for the game against Derby County.

During January, Norwich’s squad has been extremely depleted, with numerous academy prospects making the bench. The Canaries have had over five central midfielders injured, with Anis Ben Slimane, and Marcelino Nunez pertinent examples. 

Slimane and Nunez will return to the team against Derby, giving Throup’s outfit a massive boost, ahead of an important three-game week. 

Furthermore, Norwich will be boosted to have January signing Matej Jursaek available, as the Czech is now available to play after remaining in Prague due to Brexit regulations. Additionally, deadline-day signings Jacob Wright & Ruairi McConville are likely to feature – strengthening the depth of the senior squad. 

Room for Norwich to evolve?

Despite Norwich City experiencing back-to-back victories and the gap to a playoff place shortening, Thorup’s men still need to demonstrate improvement. Considering this is the Dane’s first season at Norwich, this was to be expected. 

One aspect for the Canaries to evolve to become a promotion-chasing team is their bravery in attacking areas at tough away venues. For example, during the games against Leeds & Sheffield United, Norwich failed to provide a threat in the middle and attacking third.

Too often the team hasn’t shown the courage to commit extra bodies forward against difficult opposition, even when the game situation is still dubious. This could be due to the plethora of young profiles amongst the side, as they haven’t developed the strong mentality to take the game to the top teams.

This explanation is backed up statistically, as Norwich haven’t beaten anyone in the top ten of the Championship this season. If Norwich want to be a Premier League club next season, this statistic has to change. 

The team struggled at perfecting their combinations, with loose passes often going astray, allowing the opposition to retain possession.

Conclusion 

Norwich have performed admirably across the 24/25 campaign so far, accumulating a selection of statement victories, whilst embedding a vast selection of young talent. 

Johannes Hoff Throup has created an effective game model that maximises the ability of their star players, constructing a clear quality gap between themselves and the bottom half sides in the division. 

Although the Danish manager has crafted an efficient playstyle, there are scenarios where Norwich can take the game to the opposition more frequently, but decide to relinquish further control in deeper areas. Albeit, it’s a small criticism, Norwich has the potential to score a bigger volume of goals. 

The competition amongst the chasing pack in the playoff race is strong, with Coventry & Bristol City possessing commendable depth and quality amongst their sides.

However, with the added investment that Norwich spent in January, they’ll be quietly confident that they can sneak into the 6th place position, at least.