With two months of the season having passed, a number of clubs may start to be excited by what the season may bring but some may be concerned that they might be dragged into a relegation scrap that isn’t desired. In this article, we will have a look at Tranmere Rovers and whether their start to the season suggests they could be fighting to avoid dropping into the National League at the end of the season.
The Super White Army are entering their fifth consecutive season in League Two with a number of mid-table finishes in that time. The club were promoted out of non-league after a second place finish in the National League in 2017-18 led them onto a play-off final victory against Boreham Wood.
A second consecutive play-off final victory occurred in the 2018-19 season when they beat Newport County to reach the third tier. However, their stay in the third tier lasted a solitary season with relegation confirmed by points-per-game after the coronavirus pandemic stopped the season. Having spent six seasons out of the National League, the Wirral side will be hoping that this season doesn’t see them drop back into the fifth tier.
How have Tranmere Rovers started the season?
Tranmere currently sit in 17th place in League Two after eight games having picked up ten points. They have played one game less than the vast majority of the league so far with their game against AFC Wimbledon in early September called off due to international call-ups.
Nigel Adkins’ side kept three clean sheets in a row to start the season with their first win of the season coming in the third game at home to Walsall after 0-0 draws with Notts County and Port Vale.
The made it back-to-back wins coming away from Carlisle United with all three points in a 2-1 win but have been winless in the last four having lost 3-0 in consecutive games to Gillingham and Colchester United before 0-0 and 1-1 draws with Salford City and Swindon Town respectively ahead of their visit to Milton Keynes Dons tomorrow.
What might lead Tranmere Rovers to being relegation candidates?
The most important thing in football is scoring goals, without that you cannot win games of football and this is becoming an issue for the Wirral side and the reason why they could be dragged into a relegation battle this season.
So far this season, Tranmere are the lowest ranked side when it comes to goals per match. Their total of four goals provides an average of 0.5 goals so far this season. Should this figure continue for the rest of the season, the Super White Army will end the season with 23 goals across 46 games. To put this in context, last season’s relegated clubs Forest Green Rovers and Sutton United scored 44 and 59 goals respectively.
Adding to this is Tranmere’s poor chance creation. They have the second worst expected goals (xG) tally in the league so far with 5.5 which states that the problem they have isn’t with finishing but with creating chances in any fashion. Even with the few chances that they create, their finishing is poor with a shot conversion rate of 4.7% from an average of 3.3 shots per game.
The League Two sides’ top scorer so far this season is Omari Patrick with three goals and their only other scorer is Kristian Dennis who got off the mark on Tuesday against Swindon. If Tranmere are to rely on these two to score goals then they may continue their poor record in front of goal.
Over the past five seasons, Dennis has, in all competitions, scored an average of 6.2 goals per season with his 21 goals for Carlisle in 2022-23 significantly boosting his average. Despite predominantly being used as a winger, Patrick has an average of five goals per season over the past five seasons. With this in mind, the Wirral side may continue to struggle in front of goal.
What could save Tranmere Rovers from a relegation battle?
It is at the other end of the pitch that might provide redemption for Tranmere as they have some of the better defensive figures in the fourth tier so far this season.
Despite conceding seven goals in their last four, they are currently ranked sixth in the division for goals conceded per match having let in one goal on average per 90 minutes. Coupled with this is Nigel Adkins’ side having the fourth best record in the division when it comes to clean sheets.
The Wirral side have kept four clean sheets out of their eight games so far this season. Coupling this with their goals conceded per game, it suggests that many teams may find it hard to penetrate their back line with fine margins up top allowing them to pick up three points when needed.
One other reason why there may be hope for Tranmere to not get sucked into a battle at the bottom is how unfavourable the fixture computer has been. The average position of the teams that they have faced so far this season is eleventh and they have faced the current top three as well as seventh placed Port Vale.
In the games against teams struggling at the bottom and below them in the table, Adkins’ side have picked up five points, suggesting that they are better than the poorest sides in the league so far.
Will Tranmere Rovers be relegation candidates this season?
Despite the worrying attacking statistics, Tranmere currently sit six places and points ahead of the relegation zone with a game in hand. The club can take a positive from the fact that last season they had a similarly poor start to the season having picked up 18 points from their opening 20 games and were three points clear of the drop zone going into December.
However, the lack of attacking threat must be a worry for Nigel Adkins and the Tranmere supporters. With no clear goalscorer in the squad, they may have to boost their attacking talents in the January window in order to rectify this.
Given the club’s league position getting progressively worse over the past four seasons culminating in a 17th place last season, it is likely that they will be competing in the lower mid-table region. However, Tranmere should have enough to ensure they keep their head above water, even if this season is another year of regression.