While Bromley may be having their best ever season since their formation, it is not looking pretty for the Ravens in a different kind of League Two table.
The Ravens have defied expectations to be surefire candidates for promotion to League One, with Andy Woodman turning his outfit from a National League playoff outsider to be on the verge of the third tier with a nine-point cushion over fourth place with 10 games remaining.
However, according to the FotMob expected points (xPts) table, it is a position that the South London club should not be in considering their performances across the campaign.
What is the FotMob Expected Points Table?
According to the Football site FotMob, their xPts table takes into account the amount of points a team should have taken out of a match based on the expected goals, or xG, they created throughout a single game.
Their algorithm simulates the outcomes of a match through the quality of each team’s xG and expected goals against (xGA) output and awards points based on that, creating an overall ‘justice table’ based on each game played across the season, creating a vastly different picture to the one currently seen in the actual League Two standings.
Who Leads League Two’s Alternative Standings?
FotMob’s data for the League Two xPts table sees Milton Keynes Dons sitting atop the division, with Paul Warne’s side on 65 points, meaning that the Buckinghamshire outfit are actually outperforming their expectations by six points.
Rounding out the other automatic promotion spots are National League champions Barnet and Grimsby Town, with both drastically underperforming based on their xG creation.
For the Bees, they are seeing the greatest discrepancy of any League Two outfit, with Dean Brennan’s side 10 places below where they are expected to be, which can be pinned down to their struggles up forward, underperforming their xG by 12.2 goals.
Grimsby are locked head-to-head with fourth-placed Salford City, while Cambridge United are the first team in the table believed to be doing better than expected with the U’s actually in second place rather than their expected fifth.
The final two-playoff teams are Notts County and Colchester United, both on an xPts of 58, and are closely trailed by Swindon Town, Bromley and Fleetwood Town.
What Does The Relegation Battle Look Like?
The actual League Two relegation battle looks to be going down to the wire, but in this simulated table, one side is much further behind than the rest of the sides hoping for survival.
FotMob have Harrogate Town as their bottom side, much as in real life, but with a much larger margin to safety, with the xPts table reckoning that the Sulphurites are underperforming expectations, and should be behind 22nd place by five points.
Both Cheltenham Town and Newport County are tied for 23rd place in these simulations, while Tranmere Rovers and Barrow, who actually occupy the other relegation spot, are a further two points ahead.
Shrewsbury Town, who have had a remarkable resurgence under Gavin Cowan over the past few months, are the only side in League Two level with their xPts total compared to the actual figures on 41 points, which puts them 19th in this alternative picture.
New Dimension Added
While of course it is an entirely hypothetical standings, which has no meaning on the actual standings, FotMob’s xPts table offers a very interesting insight into how some sides have been over or underperforming their expected metrics this campaign.
Barnet might be the biggest loser out of this alternative table, with it revealing how poor their xG to actual goal ratio has been this campaign, perhaps highlighting areas for improvement for Dean Brennan’s side to look at in the summer.
Both Bromley and Crawley Town have had extreme points swings between the actual and simulated tables, with the Ravens 16 points better off and the Red Devils 14 points worse off, respectively.
Ultimately, as much as the data can inform of some facets of teams’ outputs both offensively and defensively, it does not reflect the reality of the game, with each side where they are on merit through their efforts throughout the season.