The League Two title could come down to the final weekend with just six points separating Walsall in first and Port Vale in fourth with just eight games remaining. Bradford City and AFC Wimbledon also give chase to the Saddlers.
Walsall had looked as though they were Champions elect earlier in the season but their stuttering form has allowed for the chasing pack to make up ground. Graham Alexander‘s side produced a show of intent thrashing Danny Cowley’s in-form Colchester United to further pile on the pressure for Mat Sadler. The league leaders on the other hand had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Gillingham extending their winless run to six games.
Port Vale picked up victory over relegation fodder Morecambe, whilst AFC Wimbledon drew against Barrow.
Walsall Still Predicted to win the League
Despite Bradford City managing to close the gap on Walsall to just one point, the League Two prediction table still expects Mat Sadler’s side to pick up the title. Unfortunately for the Bantams, they will have to settle for third place behind Darren Moore’s Port Vale if the numbers are to be believed. That leaves AFC Wimbledon having to enter the play-offs.
| Pos | Club | Points |
| 1 (C) | Walsall | 86 |
| 2 (P) | Port Vale | 83 |
| 3 (P) | Bradford City | 79 |
| 4 | AFC Wimbledon | 79 |
This model uses a mixture of points per game, form and head to head against the remaining opponents to predict the probability of each outcome then awards points as though the games had played out that way. Whilst the model is not perfect, it does display trends and the most likely outcomes well.
Full League Two Predicted Table Here
Port Vale have the “easiest” run-in
On a points per game basis (tied to home or away fixtures) Port Vale have the easiest run in of the top four sides with the average opponent’s points per game sitting at 1.38 compared to Walsall (1.43), Bradford (1.54) and AFC Wimbledon (1.46). The Bantams have the most difficult of the four, which could be one of the reasons behind their predicted third place finish.
Walsall Run In
| Opponent | H/A | Opponent PPG (As either the home side or away side) |
| AFC Wimbledon | H | 1.33 |
| Doncaster Rovers | A | 1.78 |
| Port Vale | H | 1.47 |
| Barrow | A | 1.72 |
| Harrogate | H | 0.75 |
| Newport | A | 1.83 |
| Accrington | H | 0.90 |
| Crewe | A | 1.67 |
Average 1.43
Bradford City Run In
| Opponent | H/A | Opponent PPG (As either the home side or away side) |
| Accrington | A | 1.28 |
| Port Vale | A | 2.0 |
| Crewe | H | 1.40 |
| Swindon | A | 1.47 |
| Notts County | H | 1.58 |
| Chesterfield | A | 1.61 |
| Doncaster | A | 1.78 |
| Fleetwood | H | 1.17 |
Average 1.54
AFC Wimbledon Run In
| Opponent | H/A | Opponent PPG (As either the home side or away side) |
| Walsall | A | 2.11 |
| Swindon | A | 1.47 |
| Harrogate | H | 0.75 |
| Doncaster | A | 1.78 |
| Chesterfield | H | 1.21 |
| Gillingham | A | 1.42 |
| Port Vale | H | 1.47 |
| Grimsby | A | 150 |
Average 1.46
Port Vale Run In
| Opponent | H/A | Opponent PPG (As either the home side or away side) |
| Barrow | H | 0.74 |
| Crewe | A | 1.67 |
| Bradford | H | 1.17 |
| Walsall | A | 2.11 |
| Bromley | H | 1.42 |
| Carlisle | A | 0.79 |
| Grimsby | H | 1.61 |
| AFC Wimbledon | A | 2.00 |
| Gillingham | H | 0.89 |
Average 1.38