The EFL Championship is approaching the business end of the 2023/24 season, but which teams are still in danger of going down and who will survive for another season?
Aside from Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town, every side in this article has nine matches left to play, although the latter are in action on Sunday as they host play-off chasing West Bromwich Albion live on Sky Sports.
Whilst analysing each side’s PPG (points per game), current position and remaining fixtures, I have picked out nine sides that are in danger of going down to League One, although we won’t be discussing Rotherham United here as they are a ticking time bomb, sitting 20 points from safety with just nine games to go.
This leaves eight sides that will be analysed and discussed in detail before I provide my final opinion on which three sides I think will be relegated. The teams I will be analysing are; Millwall, Plymouth Argyle, Blackburn Rovers, Stoke City, Queen’s Park Rangers, Birmingham City, Huddersfield Town and Sheffield Wednesday.
Let’s dive into each side in detail and feel free to let me know your personal opinions…
16th) Millwall FC – 43 points
Neil Harris’s side picked up a crucial 1-0 victory against Birmingham City on Saturday to climb up to 16th in the Championship table, although they are just five points above the relegation zone. The club are also unbeaten in their last four matches.
Who have they got left to play?
- Leeds United (A)
- West Bromwich Albion (H)
- Rotherham United (A)
- Huddersfield Town (A)
- Leicester City (H)
- Cardiff City (H)
- Sunderland (A)
- Plymouth Argyle (H)
- Swansea City (A)
Taking a look at their fixtures, Millwall still need to play three of the top six sides in the division, as well as difficult trips to Sunderland and Swansea City. However, they also have winnable fixtures against Rotherham United and Huddersfield Town that should be enough to ensure their safety.
What is their expected points finish?
Millwall’s current PPG throughout the season is 1.16, but over the last eight matches, it has increased by 8% to 1.25. On average, Neil Harris’ side is expected to gain between 10.44 and 11.25 points, which balances out to 10.845 (round to 11).
This will see Millwall finish the Championship season on 54 points which should be enough to ensure their survival.
17th) Plymouth Argyle – 41 points
Ian Foster’s Plymouth Argyle rescued a point during their trip to Ewood Park on Saturday, but despite sitting 17th in the Championship, the football club is one of the most out-of-form sides in the entire division and remains at risk of being sucked into the bottom three.
Who have they got left to play?
- Preston North End (H)
- Norwich City (A)
- Bristol City (H)
- Rotherham United (A)
- Queen’s Park Rangers (H)
- Leicester City (H)
- Stoke City (A)
- Millwall FC (A)
- Hull City (H)
The Pilgrims have an easier run of fixtures in comparison to Millwall, facing four of their fellow relegation contenders, but equally have four matches against teams competing for promotion and this could see more pressure being placed on their match against Bristol City.
What is their expected points finish?
Currently, Plymouth Argyle sits on 41 points with nine matches left to play, but their current form is a major issue. Their PPG this season is 1.11, but this has suffered a 43% decrease to 0.63 over the last eight matches. This means that between now and the final match, the Pilgrims are expected to earn between 5.67 and 9.99 points, which averages out at 7.83 (rounded up to 8).
This means that Plymouth Argyle is predicted to finish on 49 points, which puts them in danger of going down if things don’t change.
18th) Blackburn Rovers – 41 points
Blackburn Rovers were held by the Pilgrims on Saturday, after Kyle McFadzean was sent off for a professional foul in the second half, making it back-to-back draws for the football club meaning their place in the Championship is still up for debate.
Who have they got left to play?
- Middlesbrough FC (A)
- Ipswich Town (H)
- Sunderland AFC (A)
- Southampton FC (H)
- Bristol City (A)
- Leeds United (A)
- Sheffield Wednesday (H)
- Coventry City (H)
- Leicester City (A)
On paper, it appears that Blackburn Rovers have the toughest run-in out of all relegation candidates, with the club still having to face the entire top four. They also only have one match against a fellow relegation side in Sheffield Wednesday which they have to win.
What is their expected points finish?
Like Plymouth, Blackburn Rovers also find themselves on 41 points, despite having the division’s top goal-scorer in Sammie Szmodics. The club’s PPG this season is 1.11, whilst their form PPG has dropped by 10% to 1.00. This means that the club are expected to earn between 9.00 and 9.99 points per game, which averages out at 9.495 (rounded down to 9).
This will take Blackburn up to 50 points, which should be enough to keep them in the Championship.
19th) Stoke City – 41 points
The final Championship side on 41 points is Steven Schumacher’s Stoke City, who picked up their second win in three games against promotion-chasing Preston North End, courtesy of a late winner from Luke McNally.
Who have they got left to play?
- Norwich City (H)
- Hull City (A)
- Huddersfield Town (H)
- West Bromwich Albion (H)
- Swansea City (A)
- Sheffield Wednesday (A)
- Plymouth Argyle (H)
- Southampton FC (A)
- Bristol City (H)
On paper, Stoke City have at least three winnable matches against sides directly around them, but do face three games against sides in the top six as well as Norwich City who sit 7th. However, the fixtures are certainly favourable for the club.
What is their expected points finish?
Steven Schumacher’s side currently have 41 points from 37 matches this season. Their season PPG is 1.11 but has made a 2% increase to 1.13 over the past eight matches. This means that the club are expected to gain between 9.99 and 10.17 points, which averages at 10.08 (10 points rounded).
This means the club are set to finish the season on 51 points, which places them higher than both Blackburn Rovers and Plymouth Argyle in the table.
20th) Queen’s Park Rangers – 39 points
Up next is QPR, who were on the receiving end of a defeat against Middlesbrough on Saturday afternoon, leaving them just a point above the relegation zone with nine matches left to play.
Who have they got left to play?
- Sunderland AFC (A)
- Birmingham City (H)
- Swansea City (A)
- Sheffield Wednesday (H)
- Plymouth Argyle (A)
- Hull City (A)
- Preston North End (H)
- Leeds United (H)
- Coventry City (A)
QPR still have three matches left against sides directly around them in the Championship, but face a nightmare final four games against teams all chasing promotion to the Premier League, meaning they need to pick up points a lot quicker than their rivals.
What is their expected points finish?
Currently, the club have 39 points and faces a tricky battle to avoid the drop. Their season PPG is 1.05 which is the third lowest in the league, although that increases by 67% to 1.75 based on their form over the last eight league games. This means that the club will likely pick up between 9.45 and 15.75 points, which averages out at 12.6 (rounded to 13).
Therefore, the club could finish the Championship season on 52 points, which places them above Stoke, Blackburn and Plymouth and would keep them up comfortably.
21st) Birmingham City – 39 points
Tony Mowbray’s Birmingham City slipped to another defeat against Millwall on Saturday, leaving them just a point above the relegation zone and placing further pressure on their game in hand.
Who have they got left to play?
- Middlesbrough FC (H)
- Watford FC (H)
- Queen’s Park Rangers (A)
- Preston North End (H)
- Leicester City (A)
- Cardiff City (H)
- Coventry City (H)
- Rotherham United (A)
- Huddersfield Town (A)
- Norwich City (H)
In terms of their remaining games, Birmingham only have to face one of the top six, although they do also have to play Norwich in 7th and Coventry in 8th, although both of those matches are at St. Andrews. Fortunately, the final couple of away games are against teams around them and ideally, they’d need six points from them.
What is their expected points finish?
Taking a look at Birmingham’s current PPG (1.08) shows they are very much in danger, with their form PPG dropping by 19% to 0.88. This means that Tony Mowbray’s men are expected to earn between 8.8 and 10.8 points, which averages at 9.8 (rounded to 10).
This would put Birmingham City on 49 points, which places them level with Plymouth Argyle and leaves them in danger of going down.
22nd) Huddersfield Town – 38 points
Huddersfield Town may sit inside the bottom four, but they are yet to play this weekend as they host West Bromwich Albion on Sunday. That result will have a serious effect on the statistics I’m about to discuss, depending on whether they win or lose.
Who have they got left to play?
- West Bromwich Albion (H)
- Rotherham United (A)
- Coventry City (H)
- Stoke City (A)
- Millwall FC (H)
- Preston North End (A)
- Bristol City (A)
- Swansea City (H)
- Birmingham City (H)
- Ipswich Town (A)
Over the last few weeks, Huddersfield have picked up some intriguing points, meaning it is much harder to predict where they may finish. The club have just two matches against sides in the top six, but after this weekend’s match, they won’t face another until the final day.
What is their expected points finish?
Currently, the Terriers have 38 points from 36 games, averaging a PPG of 1.06. However, this increases by 30% to 1.38 over their last eight matches. This means that the club are likely to earn between 10.6 and 13.8 points, averaging at 12.2 (rounded down to 12).
This puts the Terriers on 50 points, which would be enough to keep them in the Championship as they sit above Birmingham and Plymouth with one team left to discuss.
23rd) Sheffield Wednesday – 38 points
Finally, Sheffield Wednesday have seen a huge improvement in their form over the last few weeks and that is likely to have a major impact on where they could finish if this form were to continue between now and the season finale.
Who have they got left to play?
- Ipswich Town (A)
- Swansea City (H)
- Middlesbrough FC (A)
- Queen’s Park Rangers (A)
- Norwich City (H)
- Stoke City (H)
- Blackburn Rovers (A)
- West Bromwich Albion (H)
- Sunderland AFC (A)
Looking at the fixtures, Wednesday have two of the top six left to play, but have three matches against sides in the relegation picture and they will need to earn at least six points from them to ensure they have a healthy chance at survival.
What is their expected points finish?
Currently, Sheffield Wednesday has a PPG average of 1.03 which is the second lowest in the division, although that has a huge 83% increase to 1.88 based on their form over the last eight league games. This means that the club are set to pick up between 9.27 and 16.92 points, which averages at 13.095 (rounded down to 13).
This would allow the Yorkshire side to finish the Championship season on 51 points which would ensure their survival and complete the great escape.
Based on PPG, what will the bottom three look like?
Beginning with the season PPG, the relegation battle could change to this…
- Millwall FC – 53 points
- Plymouth Argyle – 51 points
- Blackburn Rovers – 51 points
- Stoke City – 51 points
- Birmingham City – 50 points
- Huddersfield Town – 49 points
- Queen’s Park Rangers – 48 points (Relegated)
- Sheffield Wednesday – 47 points (Relegated)
- Rotherham United – 24 points (Relegated)
However, if the club maintained their current form between now and the season finale, it would look like this…
- Queen’s Park Rangers – 55 points
- Sheffield Wednesday – 55 points
- Millwall FC – 54 points
- Huddersfield Town – 52 points
- Stoke City – 51 points
- Blackburn Rovers – 50 points
- Birmingham City – 48 points (Relegated)
- Plymouth Argyle – 47 points (Relegated)
- Rotherham United – 19 points (Relegated)
Who do I think will go down?
Rotherham United are almost certainly returning to League One after a very disappointing season. Based on the current form, Birmingham City is also in serious trouble and needs a quick revival, although they do have a habit of avoiding the drop when it matters. Plymouth Argyle is likely to sack their manager before the season ends, which could save them for the time being.
Sheffield Wednesday and QPR looked dead certain to go down but based on form, they are the most likely to stay up.
22nd) Sheffield Wednesday, 23rd) Queen’s Park Rangers, 24th) Rotherham United
Who do you think will go down? Let us know on Twitter @LSMSportsNews or @CallumLSM.