The 2023/24 Championship season has been nothing short of breathtaking once again, but with the majority of sides having just seven matches left, who will finish inside the top six and who will miss out?
For clarity, the current top four; Ipswich Town, Leeds United, Leicester City and Southampton won’t be analysed in this article because their places in the top six (at least) are nailed on.
Therefore, that leaves five teams that are still in contention to secure the final two playoff places. These are; West Bromwich Albion, Norwich City, Coventry City, Preston North End and Hull City.
In order to work out the probabilities, I will analyse each teams remaining fixtures, season PPG, form PPG as well as providing my personal opinion for the final two places.
I have previously analysed the Championship relegation battle and now its time to focus on which clubs are still within contention for a place in the Premier League next season.
Lets begin…
5th) West Bromwich Albion – 67 points
Kicking off in the Midlands, West Bromwich Albion have just seven games to go but find themselves in a healthy position to secure their place in the Championship playoff places at the end of the season.
Remaining fixtures;
- Watford (H)
- Stoke City (A)
- Rotherham United (H)
- Sunderland AFC (H)
- Leicester City (A)
- Sheffield Wednesday (A)
- Preston North End (H)
Despite having to face two promotion contenders, West Bromwich Albion have three games against sides at the wrong end of the Championship which should be more than enough to secure their top six finish.
What is their expected points finish?
The Baggies have established a season PPG of 1.72, which has since risen to 1.88 based on their form over the last eight games. This means that the club are expected to earn between 12.04 and 13.16 points, averaging at 12.6 (rounded up to 13).
If this is followed, West Bromwich Albion will finish the Championship season on 80 points which will be more than enough to secure a playoff place.
6th) Norwich City – 64 points
At one stage this season, David Wagner looked close to being dismissed as manager of Norwich City, but the turnaround has been nothing short of brilliant and now the Canaries find themselves back in promotion contention.
Remaining fixtures;
- Leicester City (A)
- Ipswich Town (H)
- Sheffield Wednesday (A)
- Preston North End (A)
- Bristol City (H)
- Swansea City (H)
- Birmingham City (A)
The Canaries face two extremely difficult matches in the next week, which could allow for sides below them to catch up and potentially go ahead of them. However, they also have three games against sides at the wrong end of the table which they should win.
What is their expected points finish?
So far this season, Norwich City have established a PPG of 1.64, which has since risen to a whopping 2.38 based on their current run of form. This means the club should earn between 11.48 and 16.66 points, averaging out at 14.07 (rounded down to 14).
This will allow the club to finish on 78 points, which should be more than enough to secure a top six finish.
7th) Coventry City – 60 points
Mark Robins’ side have an entirely new squad and still find themselves in playoff contention as well as an FA Cup semi-final clash with Manchester United on the horizon, but could they make it double Wembley trip?
Remaining fixtures;
- Cardiff City (H)
- Leeds United (H)
- Southampton (A)
- Birmingham City (A)
- Hull City (H)
- Blackburn Rovers (A)
- Ipswich Town (H)
- Queen’s Park Rangers (H)
Coventry still have to face four promotion contenders in their remaining eight matches, but if they can build momentum, there’s no reason why they can’t make it back-to-back playoff campaigns.
What is their expected points finish?
The Sky Blues have established a season PPG of 1.58, which has since risen to 2.00 based on their recent form. This gives Mark Robins’ side an expected 12.64 to 16.00 points from their remaining matches, averaging out at 14.32 (rounded down to 14).
Sadly, this won’t be enough for Mark Robins’ side to finish above Norwich as they’d only have 74.
8th) Preston North End – 59 points
Speaking of form, Ryan Lowe’s Preston North End are one of the divisions most in-form sides in recent weeks and have thrown themselves back into the promotion mix, but is it too little too late?
Remaining fixtures;
- Birmingham City (A)
- Watford (A)
- Huddersfield Town (H)
- Norwich City (H)
- Southampton (A)
- QPR (A)
- Leicester City (H)
- West Bromwich Albion (A)
Preston face four promotion contenders within their final five matches, meaning they will need to take maximum points from their next three games to have any shot at the top six.
What is their expected points finish?
Currently, Preston have established a season PPG of 1.55, which has since risen to 2.13 based on their form. This means that from their last eight games, Preston should earn between 12.4 and 17.04 points, averaging out at 14.72 (rounded up to 15).
This will see Ryan Lowe’s side finish on 74 points, which is level with Coventry and will see them miss out on the top six.
9th) Hull City – 58 points
Finally, Liam Rosenior’s side have slipped further away from the top six after a frustrating run of form, but will a busy, attack minded January prove to work against the Tigers?
Remaining fixtures;
- Leeds United (A)
- Cardiff City (A)
- Middlesbrough (H)
- QPR (H)
- Watford (A)
- Coventry City (A)
- Ipswich Town (H)
- Plymouth Argyle (A)
The Tigers face a tricky clash on Easter Monday, which could see them fall to nine points off the top six, with seven matches left and two of them are against promotion rivals too.
What is their expected points finish?
So far this season, Hull have established a PPG of 1.53, which has slightly risen to 1.63 over the last few matches. This means that the Tigers are expected to earn an additional 12.24 to 13.04 points, averaging out at 12.64 (rounded up to 13).
This will allow the Tigers to finish on 71 points, which will see them miss out on the playoffs.
Based on PPG, which teams will secure a Championship playoff place?
For this section, I have compiled three tables based on season PPG, form PPG and average points. So, here is how the Championship table could finish…
| Championship Table (Season PPG) | Championship Table (Form PPG) | Championship Table (Average Points) |
| 5th) West Bromwich Albion – 79 points (Playoffs) | 5th) Norwich City – 81 points (Playoffs) | 5th) West Bromwich Albion – 80 points (Playoffs) |
| 6th) Norwich City – 75 points (Playoffs) | 6th) West Bromwich Albion – 80 points (Playoffs) | 6th) Norwich City – 78 points (Playoffs) |
| 7th) Coventry City – 73 points | 7th) Coventry City – 76 points | 7th) Coventry City – 74 points |
| 8th) Preston North End – 71 points | 8th) Preston North End – 76 points | 8th) Preston North End – 74 points |
| 9th) Hull City – 70 points | 9th) Hull City – 71 points | 9th) Hull City – 71 points |
Who do I think will finish in the top six?
Based on the findings, Hull City look unlikely to finish in the top six and they could be further away if they lose against Leeds United on Monday. West Bromwich Albion may have struggled at times this season, but they’ve found a way to win games and that will be enough.
This leaves Norwich City, Coventry City and Preston North End fighting for one spot. Norwich have the form, Coventry have Englands highest goalscorer in 2024 whilst Preston have been a tricky outfit all season.
However, this is how I believe the table will finish…
- 5th) West Bromwich Albion (Playoffs)
- 6th) Norwich City (Playoffs)
- 7th) Coventry City
- 8th) Preston North End
- 9th) Hull City
What are your thoughts on this article and who do you think will finish in the top six?