The race for automatic promotion in League One is as good as over, according to data experts Opta.
It’s fair to say that England’s third tier has been far more open this season. With big spenders Birmingham City and Wrexham leaving the division for the Championship, this opened up an opportunity for others to launch a bid for success.
After two successive relegations and aided by Premier League parachute payments, Luton Town were installed as the pre-season favourites. They were joined in the drop by Cardiff City and Plymouth Argyle, both of whom were also expected to enjoy a better time than their previous campaigns.
Cardiff Appointment Barometer For Success
Out of the three relegated teams, it is Cardiff who currently stand the best chance of an immediate return to the Championship. This can largely be attributed to the arrival of Brian Barry-Murphy in the summer.
After parting company with Omer Riza in April, the Bluebirds took their time in naming a permanent successor. Opting for a man whose only senior managerial role at Rochdale ended in 2021 raised some eyebrows, but it has proven to be a masterstroke.
The 47-year-old has earned his stripes over the past few years at both Manchester City and Leicester City, returning to the dugout with a fresh approach. This has seen him acquire the League One Manager of the Month award on two occasions already this season, and they currently sit top of the division.
Nine games unbeaten in @SkyBetLeagueOne 👊#CityAsOne pic.twitter.com/x08nfqRt1K
— Cardiff City FC (@CardiffCityFC) January 31, 2026
Lincoln Aiming To End 65-Year Hoodoo
Two points behind the leaders stand Lincoln City. The Imps have become a staple of League One since earning promotion from League Two in 2019, with their best showing in those years coming in 2021 when they lost in the play-off final to Blackpool.
Under the guidance of Michael Skubala, the East Midlands-based side have emerged as one of the frontrunners to finish in the top two. They travel to Plymouth this weekend with a six-point cushion over Bolton Wanderers and Stockport County in third and fourth respectively.
In the midst of a 12-game unbeaten run, it’s difficult to see them derailing, especially with those teams directly below them still to visit the LNER Stadium. As such, a return to the second tier for the first time since 1961 is looking a very real prospect.
😍 Three wins in a row!
⌚️ FT | 🔵 0-1 🟣
— Lincoln City FC 🇺🇦 (@LincolnCity_FC) January 31, 2026
Opta Calculations Make For Exciting Reading For Top Two
Football is a game of twists and turns. However, with the season approaching its final third, things are starting to take shape.
Cardiff and Lincoln look like they are going to take some usurping though. This is a view echoed by data analyst experts Opta, who have calculated that it would take a formidable effort from the chasing pack to upset the current top two.
When it comes to securing automatic promotion, the Bluebirds have been given a whopping 84% chance of returning to the Championship at the first time of asking. Understandable, given there is currently eight points between them and the play-off places. Meanwhile, Lincoln’s six-point cushion and current form means that the Imps are 77.64% likely to join the league leaders in the division above.
Fourth-placed Stockport are seen as the most likely to upset the applecart, although they have been given only a 22% chance of breaching the top two. Bolton, who currently sit third, are further back at just 8%. This is thanks in part to them having played a game more than all of the current top five.
Elsewhere, Bradford City are aiming for back-to-back promotions. They may have lost ground on those above them in recent weeks but with a seven point lead over seventh-placed Luton, the Bantams look good for a place in the play-offs.
Huddersfield Town currently occupy that all-important sixth spot, although are only handed a mere 2% possibility of embarking on a remarkable surge up the table. Their top six aspirations are more probable though, with the Terriers 51.92% likely to extend their season. However, they’ve played two games more than eighth-placed Stevenage and one more than Luton, meaning we are set to witness an almighty scrap in the coming months.