Across the wider footballing world, Bristol City have often been dismissed as a Championship promotion contender, as they normally fall away during the crunch time of the season. Despite there being time for Bristol City to repeat this trend, there are signs of optimism that this season can be different for the Robins.
Overcoming home expectations
On the topic of trends, Bristol City have never been reliable at beating teams below them in the league, despite often winning against strong opposition to make up for those disappointing results. For example, Bristol City lost to QPR, Millwall, Stoke & Birmingham at home last season, with those teams occupying a place towards the relegation positions for the majority of the 23/24 campaign.
Ironically, the Robins defeated Southampton and Leicester at home during the same campaign, underlining the supporters’ frustration that they couldn’t capitalise against weaker sides, especially as it would have boosted them towards the playoff picture.
However, Liam Manning’s men have demonstrated their intent to change this narrative across 24/25, as they’ve beaten Plymouth Argyle & Portsmouth convincingly, whilst edging past Oxford United, Millwall, Derby & Luton Town. They’ve only lost two games at Ashton Gate this season, possessing the added quality to get over the line.
The Robins have a fantastic variety of attacking profiles amongst the squad, with all of them contributing effectively across the season so far. Manning has the luxury of relying on Scott Twine’s tremendous dead-ball quality, coupled with the dynamism and craft of Anis Mehmeti & Yu Hirakawa.
As well as the differing profiles having a positive effect on the team, several key individuals are fantastic at executing tactical instructions – providing reliability in crucial areas. Some examples include Jason Knight & Max Bird, who’ve played together at Derby and brought terrific consistency to the team.
Marvellous Mehmeti
One player that’s had a sublime campaign for the Robins so far, is Anis Mehmeti. The forward-thinking attacker is fantastic at dribbling through congested zones, opening up greater promising areas for a shot or extra pass towards goal. Mehmeti’s agileness is difficult to contain, resulting in opposition players committing rash fouls on the Albanian wide player.
Given Bristol City have a player of Scott Twine’s quality from free-kicks, it’s a risky defensive ploy to give the Robins too many set-pieces outside the box.
According to FBref, Mehmeti has a non-penalty xG & assisted xG tally of 9.4, aligning with his overall current goal contribution tally of 10. Mehmeti has already doubled his goal contribution tally in January, after only accumulating five across 23/24.
The former Norwich academy player has been clinical in front of goal this season – finding the bottom corners emphatically. This is represented statistically too, as Mehmeti has scored nine goals during the season, overperforming his xG frequency of 7.6, as per FBref.
Additionally, Mehmeti has showcased his clinical instincts in front of goal, breaking into vacant gaps of space swiftly — giving himself time to apply the correct finish repetitively. The ex-Wycombe forward has even portrayed his ability to take his opportunities first time, highlighting the confidence he’s experiencing this season.
Effective passing combinations
Although Liam Manning isn’t obsessed with possession-oriented football, his side has constructed a catalogue of aesthetic goals, often crafted by an effective vertical pass through the opposition midfield. This was displayed against Plymouth Argyle on New Year’s Day. Max Bird threaded a delightful through ball into Nahki Wells before the striker offloaded to Anis Mehmeti for the Albanian to equalise.
Nahki Wells has portrayed his intelligence throughout the campaign, with his sublime attacking movement. Wells is extremely effective at stretching opposition backlines, making additional space for his teammates to construct deep powerful runs.
Wells has displaced two of Bristol City’s summer striker signings out of the starting eleven, as Sinclair Armstrong and Fally Mayulu have struggled to make an immediate impact in Bristol. The former Huddersfield striker has accumulated eight goal contributions for the season, with five being goals.
Due to Bristol City gaining success at combining at a high intensity, before playing vertical passes through the lines, opposition teams have combated their strength, by creating a narrow and compressed out-of-possession structure.
QPR were a perfect example of executing this, as they applied a 4-5-1 shape out of possession, causing Bristol City to find alternate solutions, rather than playing through centrally. Unfortunately for the Robins, they struggled to break down the West London outfit, resulting in the game finishing 1-1.
Away deficiencies
A common association of Liam Manning’s side is they’re a better team away from home, as they face fewer sides wanting to sit deep against them — allowing more space for their attacking players to operate.
However, despite a few eye-capturing victories on the road against Middlesbrough & Norwich City, the Robins have found results hard to come by away from home, with humbling defeats against Portsmouth, Derby County & Blackburn Rovers.
Furthermore, there have been genuine opportunities for Bristol City to accumulate further points against Sunderland & Plymouth Argyle away from home, but they failed to see the game out against both of those teams, conceding late equalisers — losing out on four crucial points.
Although Manning’s side isn’t defensively fragile from a statistical perspective, they’ve tended to collapse during critical moments, conceding soft goals when they’re in control of matches. For example, the equalisers for Sunderland & Plymouth originated from players leaving critical zones unattended in the penalty box, giving the opposition a free shot at goal.
Conclusion
Bristol City’s home and away fortunes differ, with the Robins struggling to find consistency throughout the season. This has been an apparent topic for years with Bristol City, as they’ve struggled to cope with the pressure of a play-off promotion push, often falling at the last hurdle.
Whilst the signs are positive that they are building serious momentum at Ashton Gate, they must take one game at a time, respecting the challenge of each opposition. Focusing on the wider achievement too frequently could lead to complacency; a term that the Robins can’t be associated with — especially with greater investment each season.
Whether Bristol City looks to strengthen in January remains to be seen, but the promotion-winning experience could be useful at retaining high standards.
However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they continued their trend of recruiting young players with potential sell-on value, sticking to the long-term principles of the club.
Bristol City’s next two fixtures are away to Coventry & Sheffield Wednesday. Both sides are in the bottom half for home form across the season, underlining the opportunity for Liam Manning’s men to break into the play-offs.
Winning both games will give them the belief that they can perform strongly away from home, and their home venue. However, the fans are accustomed to their side failing to retain promising league positions, meaning the external pressure will be firmly present.