League One is set to be impacted this weekend due to the ongoing international break, but with just nine matches left for most sides – which two sides will finish in the automatic promotion places and who will miss out?
Over the last few season’s, the points needed to finish in the automatic promotion places in League One has varied. We’ve seen as low as 87 and as high as 98 points being required, which means the average needed since the 2020/21 season is 91.75 (rounded up to 92).
Currently, there appears to be only three sides left in the running for a top two finish, but the form of two other sides would suggest this automatic promotion race is more detailed than meets the eye.
However, let’s first take a look at the five sides a little closer…
Which sides are in the automatic promotion battle in League One?
Unsurprisingly, big spenders Birmingham City are the runaway leaders in League One and despite a drop in form recently, it’s still a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ in terms of their promotion back to the Championship.
This leaves Wycombe Wanderers and Wrexham left to battle it out for the final spot. The Welsh side beat the Chairboys last weekend but lost out on the top two in mid-week after Wycombe won their game in-hand.
Both sides have the same games played and the same points total, meaning fans are in for an extremely nervous run-in but as a neutral it’s certainly exciting.
However, the ongoing form of both Charlton Athletic and Stockport County have blown the automatic promotion race wide open – suggesting that there is indeed five sides in the race for the top two.
Let’s individually dive into each of the five teams…
Birmingham City:
Chris Davies’ side are running riot in League One, which isn’t entirely surprising given the numbers they’ve spent in comparison to the rest of the division.
However, credit where it’s due because the management and senior members of the team have handled the pressure extremely professionally.
Current season statistics:
With the Blues having an additional fixture left, they arguably need just three wins from their last ten matches in order to definitely be playing Championship football next season.
They currently sit 12 points clear at the top and are seemingly within weeks of lifting the League One title, holding a season PPG of 2.31.
Form statistics:
Over the last eight league games, Birmingham have dropped points in three of those and have tasted their first loss in the division since the end of November.
This has given a slight advantage to the likes of Wycombe and Wrexham but that hasn’t been utilised recently, with Birmingham’s current form PPG dropping to 2.13 which is no longer the highest in the division. Their average PPG is currently 2.22.
Remaining fixtures;
- Stevenage (A) TBC, Shrewsbury Town (H), Bristol Rovers (A), Barnsley (H), Peterborough United (A), Blackpool (A), Crawley Town (H), Burton Albion (A), Mansfield Town (H) & Cambridge United (A)
Run-in analysed:
On paper, Birmingham City have a fairly straight forward run towards the League One title. Although they are due to face six relegation threatened teams, they don’t play against any of the current top nine again this season.
Should Birmingham continue to drop the odd point, they aren’t having to worry about challenging fixtures in comparison to their automatic promotion rivals.
Wycombe Wanderers:
Mike Dodds’ Wycombe Wanderers restored their place in the automatic promotion places in mid-week after they beat Rotherham United 3-2.
The Chairboys have been superb for the vast majority of the season but have shown recently that their early season magic has begun to fade out slowly.
Current season statistics:
At one stage of the League One season, Wycombe Wanderers had a better run of form than Birmingham City and in-turn one of the best in the entirety of English football.
Wycombe have nine games left to play in League One but have gained 71 points so far this season and have a season PPG of 1.92.
Form statistics:
Since the turn of the year the Chairboys have saw their form drop substantially and have lost to both Wrexham and Birmingham recently.
Unsurprisingly, these mixed results alongside draws against Wigan, Crawley and Peterborough have seen their form PPG fall to 1.50. They are averaging 1.71 points per game currently.
Remaining fixtures;
- Lincoln (H), Shrewsbury (H), Reading (A), Huddersfield (A), Stevenage (H), Bolton (A), Charlton (H), Leyton Orient (A), Stockport (H).
Run-in analysed:
It’s fair to say that Wycombe’s remaining matches are going to be very tricky indeed if they are to maintain second spot.
Within their last nine games, six are against sides in or around the play-off places, with Shrewsbury being the only team in the bottom ten that they face although that is a reunion against legendary manager Gareth Ainsworth.
Wrexham AFC:
Phil Parkinson’s Wrexham continue their quest to make it three successive promotions and their current form would suggest that they have the potential to make that dream a reality.
Although they fell out of the top two in mid-week, Wrexham beat Wycombe which will give them a mental advantage heading into the promotion run-in.
Current season statistics:
Similar to Wycombe, Wrexham also have 71 points from 37 league games, though they are seven goals worse off when it comes to their goal difference and have also netted 13 less goals.
However, the club have won 21 games this season which is the second-highest in League One and have built a season PPG of 1.92.
Form statistics:
Despite a recent defeat against Steven Schumacher’s Bolton Wanderers, Wrexham have been defensively strong and have conceded just twice in their previous five league games.
Their form recently has saw their PPG slightly increase to 2.00, but face a challenging fixture this weekend.
Remaining fixtures;
- Stockport (H), Exeter (A), Cambridge (A), Burton (H), Wigan (A), Bristol Rovers (H), Blackpool (A), Charlton (H), Lincoln (A)
Run-in analysed:
Looking at Wrexham’s remaining fixtures, they have a mixed bag in terms of challenges, with two games being against sides in the top six and two coming against the current bottom four.
Compared to Wycombe, Wrexham’s run-in is easier (on paper), which does place more pressure on the Welsh side but it should be one they can handle.
Charlton Athletic:
Nathan Jones’ Charlton Athletic are currently the form side in League One and have clawed their way back into automatic promotion contention.
With Matt Godden grabbing goals 14 and 15 of the season, Charlton stand an excellent chance of making the late dart into the top two.
Current season statistics:
Charlton Athletic have lost just nine times in League One this season and currently find themselves fourth in the table with a season PPG of 1.78.
Across their 37 league outings thus far, the club have gained 66 points and have risen to within five points of the automatic promotion places with just nine games left to play.
Form statistics:
In order to close the gap, Charlton had to have improved their form and they’ve certainly done that recently.
The club have lost once since January 18th and that came against league leaders Birmingham City, establishing an improved PPG over the last eight games too 2.38.
Remaining fixtures;
- Peterborough (A), Huddersfield (H), Mansfield (A), Lincoln (H), Cambridge (A), Northampton (H), Wycombe (A), Wrexham (A), Burton (H)
Run-in analysed:
Despite a major improvement form wise, Charlton have a challenging run of matches to come including games against three of the top six.
Their form will carry them an improved distance but they need to ensure they maintain current levels, otherwise there’s a good chance they’ll fall just short of the top two.
Stockport County:
Dave Challinor’s side have endured their own challenges this season, especially with Louie Barry’s loan recall in January but they also remain in top two contention.
Like Wrexham, Stockport are also competing for successive promotions but would need to improve form to beat their main competitors.
Current season statistics:
Stockport are currently fifth in League One, but only find themselves six points off the automatic promotion places.
The club have earned 65 points from their 37 league matches this season and have suffered just eight defeats all campaign, resulting in a season PPG of 1.76.
Form statistics:
Elsewhere, Stockport are currently unbeaten in their last four league matches and have only lost twice in league competition since Boxing Day.
Though they’ve drew two of their last three, their current form PPG has risen up to 1.88 and could increase further if they win next time out.
Remaining fixtures;
- Wrexham (A), Burton (H), Stevenage (H), Exeter (A), Rotherham (H), Peterborough (A), Huddersfield (H), Lincoln (H), Wycombe (A)
Run-in analysed:
Ultimately, a defeat at Wrexham would end their automatic promotion hopes this season, but a victory matched with an easier run of form would lead to an exciting finish.
Currently, Stockport are unlikely to finish in the top two but their upturn in form could see that possibility change, especially if they win five or six of their remaining matches.
What do the form/season/average League One tables look like?
To properly analyse where each of the five teams could finish, we need to look at their PPG for each of the three discussed sections and see how much of an impact it has.
Using this data, here are three potential outcomes;
| Season PPG Table | Form PPG Table | Average PPG Table |
| 1) Birmingham 106 | 1) Birmingham 104 | 1) Birmingham 105 |
| 2) Wycombe 88 | 2) Wrexham 89 | 2) Wrexham 89 |
| 3) Wrexham 88 | 3) Charlton 87 | 3) Wycombe 86 |
| 4) Charlton 82 | 4) Wycombe 85 | 4) Charlton 85 |
| 5) Stockport 81 | 5) Stockport 82 | 5) Stockport 81 |
By closely analysing the data from the table calculations, Birmingham City will win the league with a triple-digit points total.
Elsewhere, Stockport regularly finish fifth but if they beat Wrexham, their probability would increase substantially.
Charlton Athletic look set to miss out but as shown by their form PPG, they will run the current top two very close.
In the battle between Wycombe and Wrexham, it appears that despite both sides having the same games played and the same points total, it’ll be the Welsh side that progress in the final automatic promotion spot.
Ultimately, the form PPG table can fluctuate rapidly week upon week, but there is a 0.5 points gap in Wrexham’s favour, meaning that between now and the end of the season – Wrexham will gain four points over the Chairboys as highlighted above.
League One fans, which two teams will be automatically promoted to the Championship?