The League Two relegation fight is hotting up, with Sutton United, Forest Green Rovers, Grimsby Town and Colchester United all battling it out to remain in the fourth tier next season. Doncaster Rovers and Salford City seem to have done enough to put a thirteen-point gap between themselves and the drop seemingly confirming their safety (although not mathematically).
Currently, Danny Cowley’s Colchester United lead the pack with 31 points, Grimsby Town follow just behind on 30 points with a game in hand and Forest Green Rovers and Sutton United occupy the two relegation spots on 26 and 23 points respectively.
Who has the toughest run in?
To analyse this we have looked at two key criteria, the current position of the opposition as well as the average points per game of the opposition (respective of whether they are playing home or away.
Colchester United 21st
Out of the four, The U’s are currently the most in form over the last six games. They have won one game, drawn dour and only lost once with a zero goal difference. This perhaps demonstrates the improvements made under former Lincoln City and Portsmouth duo Danny and Nicky Cowley. However, they will be hoping to turn a few more of those draws into victories to put some distance between them.
Who have they got left to play?
Salford City (A) 19th (PPG at home = 1.06)
Stockport County (H) 2nd (PPG away = 1.75)
Barrow (A) 6th (PPG at home = 1.80)
Doncaster Rovers (H) 20th (PPG away = 0.81)
Walsall (H) 9th (PPG away = 1.12)
Mansfield Town (A) 1st (PPG at home = 2.06)
Newport County (H) 16th (PPG away = 1.00)
Tranmere Rovers (A) 17th (PPG at home = 1.71)
Wrexham (H) 4th (PPG away = 1.24)
Crawley Town (A) 8th (PPG at home = 1.65)
Grimsby Town (H) 22nd (PPG away = 0.73)
Notts County (A) 13th (PPG at home = 1.94)
Crewe Alexandra (H) 3rd (PPG away = 1.59)
This means that based on the current standings Colchester have to face seven sides in the top half of the table, and six in the bottom half including a relegation six-pointer against Grimsby Town. This works out as an average position of 11th (10.769 rounded).
The points per game metric (home/away) puts the hardest game as Mansfield Town away, who have accumulated an average of 2.06 points per game, whilst on paper the easiest is David Artell’s Grimsby Town at home at 0.73 points per game. This works out at an average of 1.42 points per game for the opposition (home/away) left to face. Colchester United have averaged 0.94 points per game across the entire season (home and away).
Average Position 11th (higher number is better)
Average Points Per Game Of Opposition (Home/Away) 1.42 (lower is better)
Grimsby Town 22nd
Grimsby Town opted to make the change earlier in the season, appointing former Crewe Alexandra boss David Artell to the top job. However, he has struggled to turn the form around. In his 13 league games since taking over, he has only won two, (Salford City and Crewe Alexandra) drawn five and lost six with a goal difference of -11. The Mariners are currently on a run of seven games without a win, as they are yet to record a league victory in 2024, and have conceded an eye-watering 16 goals over the last six fixtures.
Who have they got left to play?
Forest Green Rovers (H) 23rd (PPG away = 0.88)
AFC Wimbledon (A) 12th (PPG at home = 1.56)
Sutton United (A) 24th (PPG at home = 0.89)
MK Dons (H) 5th (PPG away =1.31)
Gillingham (A) 7th (PPG at home =1.61)
Wrexham (H) 4th (PPG away = 1.24)
Barrow (A) 6th (PPG at home = 1.80)
Bradford City (H) 15th (PPG away = 1.24)
Newport County (H) 16th (PPG away = 1.00)
Harrogate Town (A) 11th (PPG at home = 1.25)
Crewe Alexandra (A) 3rd (PPG at home = 2.00)
Colchester United (A) 21st (PPG at home = 1.06)
Swindon Town (H) 18th (PPG away = 0.72)
Crawley Town (A) 8th (PPG at home = 1.65)
Based on the current standings Grimsby Town have to face seven teams in the top half of the table, including a difficult run where they have to face the teams from 4th to 7th in consecutive games. They also have to face six sides in the bottom half of the table. This works out at an average position of 12th for the opposition.
When it comes to points per game the most tricky fixture comes as they face Crewe Alexandra away, who average 2.0 points per game at home, whereas their least challenging fixture comes against Swindon Town at home who have only averaged 0.72 points per game away from home. This averages 1.30 points per game average for the opposition (home/away).
Average Position 12th (higher number is better)
Average Points Per Game Of Opposition (Home/Away) 1.30 (lower is better)
Forest Green Rovers
The eco-friendly side look to be staring down the barrel of back-to-back relegations after they slipped out of League One last season. There has been turmoil behind the scenes as several high-profile staff members departed and the club dealt with the Troy Deeney debacle. They do however, boast better form than Sutton and Grimsby Town, having won two and drawn one of their last six ties however, they have still recorded a goal difference of minus five in that period.
Who have they got left to play?
Wrexham (H) 4th (PPG away = 1.24)
Grimsby Town (A) 22nd (PPG at home = 1.12)
Walsall (H) 9th (PPG away = 1.12)
Bradford City (A) 15th (PPG at home = 1.56)
Sutton United (H) 24th (PPG away = 0.44)
Doncaster Rovers (A) 20th (PPG at home = 1.53)
Stockport County (H) 2nd (PPG away = 1.75)
Crewe Alexandra (A) 3rd (PPG at home = 2.00)
MK Dons (H) 5th (PPG away = 1.31)
Mansfield Town (A) 1st (PPG at home = 2.06)
Wrexham (A) 4th (PPG at home = 2.38)
Morecambe (A) 10th (PPG at home = 1.56)
Notts County (H) 13th (PPG away = 0.94)
Based on the current standings Forest Green Rovers are set to face eight of the top half of the table, including first, second and third, fourth and fifth-placed sides as well as five from the bottom half of the table. The average position of these teams works out to be 10th.
In terms of points per game of the opposition (home/away), the easiest fixture is unsurprisingly at home against bottom-placed Sutton United at 0.44 ppg away as Dale Vince’s side are set to face two out of the four sides battling against relegation. However, on the other hand, they are set to face three teams away that boast an average of over 2.0 points per game at home, in Crewe (2.00), Mansfield (2.06) and Wrexham (2.38). They are also set to face second-placed Stockport County and an in-form MK Dons. The average points per game of the opposition home/away works out to be 1.46.
Average Position 10th (higher number is better)
Average Points Per Game Of Opposition (Home/Away) 1.46 (lower is better)
Sutton United
This has been a season to forget for Sutton United and unless there is some sort of miracle, they will be returning to non-league football next year. They sit at rock bottom of the table, seven points from safety having played two games more than 22nd place Grimsby Town. Their form doesn’t read much better as they have recorded only two points from their last six games. No wins, two draws and four defeats with a minus-four goal difference.
Who have they got left to play?
Notts County (A) 13th (PPG at home = 1.94)
Tranmere Rovers (A) 17th (PPG at home = 1.71)
Grimsby Town (H) 22nd (PPG away = 0.73)
Crewe Alexandra (A) 3rd (PPG at home = 2.00)
Forest Green Rovers (A) 23rd (PPG at home = 0.71)
Accrington Stanley (H) 14th (PPG away = 1.07)
Salford City (A) 19th (PPG at home = 1.06)
Swindon Town (H) 18th (PPG away = 0.72)
Stockport County (H) 2nd (PPG away = 1.75)
Harrogate Town (A) 11th (PPG at home = 1.25)
Crawley Town (H) 8th (PPG away = 1.31)
MK Dons (A) 5th (PPG at home = 2.06)
Based on the current standings Sutton are set to face five teams from the top half of the table and seven sides from the bottom half. They face a tricky end to the season away at MK Dons. They are also due to face both Forest Green Rovers and Grimsby Town in the relegation battle. The average position of these sides is 13th.
With regards to the opposition’s points per game (home/away), the lowest tally comes when they face relegation candidates Forest Green Rovers away who only hold an average of 0.71 points per game at home. Although Swindon Town and Grimsby Town only hold 0.72 and 0.73 respectively. They are also set to face two sides Crewe Alexandra (2.00) and MK Dons (2.06) who hold an average of over 2.0 points per game with the latter holding the highest total. The average points per game of the opposition is 1.36.
Average Position 13th (higher number is better)
Average Points Per Game Of Opposition (Home/Away) 1.36 (lower is better)
Who has the hardest run-in?
Average League Position of Opposition
- Forest Green Rovers 10th
- Colchester United 11th
- Grimsby Town 12th
- Sutton United 13th
Average Points Per Game Of Opposition (Home/Away)
- Forest Green Rovers 1.46
- Colchester United 1.42
- Sutton United 1.36
- Grimsby Town 1.30
Therefore out of the four teams Forest Green Rovers has the most difficult run-in followed by Colchester United then Sutton and Grimsby are split depending on your preferred statistic.