We are approaching the final ten matches (for most) in the National League for the 2023/24 season, but which clubs stand the best chance of survival and which face a dreaded run-in?
To carefully pick out four sides that are most likely to go down, I have analysed every team’s final ten (or more) matches, selecting which matches they are most likely to gain points in and which are almost a ‘free hit’.
Excluding the bottom side, 13th to 23rd in the National League are split by just seven points, with the majority of sides having at least 30 points left to play for, meaning a place in the National League next season is still anyone’s game.
Currently, Oxford City, Woking, Kidderminster Harriers and York City occupy the four relegation places, but all except Oxford are within touching distance of safety. Dorking Wanderers, Rochdale and Wealdstone have played the least amount of games, but the latter is still in the FA Trophy and could see another game postponed should they beat Solihull Moors in the Quarter-Finals.
For me to say a club is ‘safe’, they will need to reach 52 points at least. My reasoning for this is due to how tight the National League is and how many sides have to play against each other over the next few weeks.
With that being said, let’s take a look at which sides are in danger of going down…
Who is in danger?
The only side I can convincingly say is in danger is Oxford City, which is sad to admit after their excellent start to their first-ever National League season. The club are currently 13 points off safety with just nine games left to play.
This means that ideally, the club need to gain points in all of their remaining matches, which include facing the likes of Chesterfield, Bromley and Barnet. In other words, as much as I would love to see Oxford City emulate last season’s Gateshead, I think it’s highly unlikely.
Which clubs have the hardest run-in?
York City in particular are just one point from safety but have still got to face four difficult matches including trips to Altrincham, Bromley and Solihull Moors on the final day of the season. With a new manager at the helm, York will need to ideally earn four points from their next two games to put additional pressure on their rivals.
Woking has struggled to perform all season so far and looks like a side that is all but set to go down. However, Woking’s last three games are all against sides in the bottom half of the table, which means that if they can avoid dropping a lot of points, survival could be in their hands.
Kidderminster Harriers are the other side in the bottom four, but their next three matches are all winnable which could be enough to keep them up. Dorking Wanderers outplayed the league leaders at the weekend, but arguably have the toughest run of fixtures (aside from Oxford) in the entire division. Marc White’s men have to face Solihull Moors, Barnet and Bromley as well as difficult trips to Altrincham, Southend, Aldershot and Rochdale. They have shown that they are more than capable of staying up comfortably, but will need to build on Saturday’s result.
Which clubs have the easiest run-in?
Despite there being no easy games in the National League, I’d argue that Dagenham & Redbridge have the easiest run of matches, closely followed by Boreham Wood.
Ebbsfleet United have won four games on the bounce and have enough matches left that they realistically should gain points from.
How significant will the FA Trophy be?
In my personal opinion, the FA Trophy Quarter-Finals will have a significant role in the relegation battle. Solihull Moors, Barnet, Bromley and Gateshead may all be in the top seven, but if they can confirm their places sooner, their focus could shift to the semi-finals which would affect their remaining league games.
However, Wealdstone in 18th is still in the competition, hosting Solihull Moors in the last eight of the tournament. The Stones have four games in hand on some of the sides directly surrounding them and sit three points above the bottom four.
Wealdstone’s squad on paper is more than good enough to avoid relegation, but they would much rather have points on the board than the games in hand. Therefore, their fatigue levels could play a major role in their quest for survival, especially with the likes of Kidderminster Harriers hitting form at the right time.
How does each team’s PPG affect their outcome?
Rochdale in 13th and Wealdstone in 17th have the highest points-per-game (Rochdale 1.29, Wealdstone 1.27). Therefore, with the number of games left, both sides are expected to finish with a respectable 59 points. Dagenham & Redbridge and Boreham Wood are expected to end the season on 56 which will also keep them up.
Continuing the trend will see Ebbsfleet United (55 points), AFC Fylde (54 points) and Dorking Wanderers (54 points) all also survive for another season in the National League.
Maidenhead United have a PPG of 1.14 and with just nine games to go, they are likely to finish on 52 points, which puts them in major danger of going down.
However, the current bottom four (York City, Kidderminster Harriers, Woking & Oxford City) are all currently going down, despite the first two having an expected points total of 50, which usually is enough for safety. Woking is likely to finish on 49 points whilst Oxford City will have just 35 points.
Admittedly, these statistics are based on each side’s PPG times by the number of matches they have left, which means that factors such as games against each other or against the top sides aren’t taken into consideration.
For the full list of each National League side’s PPG, please click here.
Who is my bottom four?
I believe Oxford City will be the first confirmed team to go down, which isn’t something I’m happy to say given how well they have performed in a lot of matches throughout the season so far. However, given their run-in, they will need points in roughly all of their remaining matches and that includes the runaway leaders Chesterfield.
Woking is also in a lot of trouble but earned an excellent 3-2 win against play-off-chasing Gateshead at the weekend. If Michael Doyle’s men beat Kidderminster Harriers, they could climb to within touching distance of survival and would travel to Altrincham with buckets full of confidence.
However, the rest could go either way, especially due to how many sides have still got to play each other and with Dorking Wanderers’ win over Chesterfield truly proving anyone can beat anyone.
Therefore, my bottom four predictions are…
21st) Dorking Wanderers, 22nd) Maidenhead United, 23rd) Woking FC, 24th Oxford City
Oxford City as I have previously stated is almost certainly going down, whilst Woking also faces an uphill battle and whilst they’ll gain more points, I think they’ll fall just short.
Maidenhead United have a difficult schedule and ends the season with three games against play-off teams which is far from ideal and I think that could be a contributing factor.
For the final place, I was torn between Dorking Wanderers and York City and I opted to go with Dorking. My reasoning for this is that they have a very difficult schedule, with eight of their last 11 games coming against sides currently in the top half of the National League table, whilst York has a significantly easier schedule and a new manager boost.
Readers, let me know what you think on Twitter @LSMSportsNews and/or @CallumLSM.