Supercomputers are useful, but they are not definitive.
They are built on trends, probabilities and points-per-game logic, which works well when leagues behave predictably. League One rarely does. Last season was a reminder of that, with Charlton climbing from 14th on December 17th into the promotion picture. This year’s Opta projection feels like another case of numbers failing to capture momentum, squad evolution and tactical change.
Opta currently place Bolton Wanderers fourth, giving them a respectable chance of promotion but stopping short of backing them for the title. On paper, that feels logical. In reality, Bolton look like the most complete side in the division and the team best equipped to win the league rather than simply compete in it.
Why Back Bolton?
The biggest reason the model undersells Bolton is Steven Schumacher. This is his first full season after a summer rebuild, and the impact is now clear. Bolton play on the front foot, press aggressively and move the ball wide at speed. They are top four for cross success, and their expected goals numbers are strong. They lead League One for touches in the box and shots on target per game, and also have the lowest expected goals conceded. That combination matters far more than raw league position in December.
Schumacher’s willingness to adapt is another factor that algorithms struggle to quantify. Bolton are seeing more sides deploy deep, narrow shapes to block central areas, and Schumacher has responded by leaning into width and crossing. They are flexible and their attacking patterns vary: this is not a rigid system waiting to be figured out.
Squad depth and quality is another area where Bolton stand apart. They have moved on from players who carried them through previous play-off campaigns and replaced them with younger, more dynamic profiles. Thierry Gale has been one of the most underappreciated players in the division, Mason Burstow started the season in prolific form, and Amario Cozier-Duberry gives them genuine chaos from wide areas. Add in experienced League One performers like Ethan Erhahon and the creativity of players such as Javier Simmons, and this is a squad built to sustain form rather than spike it.
January also favours Bolton more than most. Opta models treat all squads as broadly static. Bolton are not. They have the depth, pull and financial headroom to strengthen, particularly if they want to mitigate the risk of loan recalls. Even with that caveat, this is already a side capable of dominating matches. Reinforcements would only raise their ceiling.
Recent results support the eye test. An eight-game unbeaten run in League One included wins over Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town and draws away at Luton and Bradford, two fixtures that rarely yield easy points. The only real frustration came against Swindon in the FA Cup. Performances in those matches still pointed towards a team creating volume and pressure, even when results lagged behind.
Bolton Turning Point
The Wigan derby in September felt like a turning point. After two wins in eight, Schumacher needed a big performance, and he got it. Bolton pressed relentlessly, played at tempo and overwhelmed a rival they had not beaten at home for over a decade. That intensity, combined with a more direct attacking edge, showed what this side can be when confidence aligns with structure. League One centre-backs do not enjoy defending repeated quality crosses, and Bolton are now delivering them in volume.
The supercomputer favours Cardiff and Bradford because they are already there. That is understandable, but it ignores trajectory. Bolton are not chasing form, they are building it. They have the manager, the tactical identity, the squad depth and the statistical dominance that usually underpins champions.
If League One is decided by who peaks at the right time rather than who starts best, Bolton Wanderers look better placed than anyone. The model says fourth. The football says first.