With the new Championship season just around the corner, Opta Supercomputer has shared its predictions for the 2024/25 season.
Each year, Opta uses the Opta Supercomputer to predict how the Championship will look at the end of the season.
To do this, they simulate the season 10,000 times, resulting in a final league table based on percentage probabilities of finishing in each position.
The computer will go through every match and predict the outcome based on betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings.
Given the competitive and unpredictable nature of the Championship, the final table might look nothing like that predicted by the supercomputer, but it makes for an interesting read.
Who do Opta predict will win the league this season?
The battle for the title this season is set to be another thriller. The three teams coming down from the Premier League, Luton Town, Sheffield United, and Burnley, will all fancy their chances this season.
We’ll unlikely have another promoted team having the same success as Ipswich Town. Still, the fans of Oxford United, Derby County, and Portsmouth will be dreaming about it.
The Opta Supercomputer has predicted last season’s beaten play-off finalists, Leeds United, will win the Championship this season. Leeds have been given a 45% chance of finishing first, with Middlesbrough the next team behind them with a 13% chance.
The only two teams not to be given a percentage probability of winning the league are Plymouth Argyle and Cardiff City.
Oxford United and Sunderland have the lowest possibility, with both having a 0.2% possibility of winning the league.
Who will get automatic promotion to the Premier League?
As you can imagine, Leeds United are favourites to get automatic promotion to the Premier League. Daniel Farke’s side have been given a 63.4% possibility of being promoted automatically this season.
The other automatic position is slightly more open between a few teams. All three relegated teams are expected to be involved, however one is lower than you might think:
- Middlesbrough – 27.5%
- Burnley – 18.5%
- West Brom – 17.2%
- Luton Town – 16.7%
- Norwich City – 14%
- Coventry City – 8.9%
- Sheffield United – 5.8%
- Bristol City – 3.7%
A reason for Sheffield United’s low percentage could be their -2 start. Although it’s only a small amount, it does put them on the back foot immediately this season.
Interestingly, Middlesbrough are seen as the second most likely to get promoted this season. This is despite finishing outside the play-offs last season. The club have brought in Aidan Morris, Delano Burgzorg, and Luke Ayling this summer, in the hopes of improving on their 8th place finish last season.
Who does the Opta Supercomputer predict will be relegated?
Last season’s relegation battle took plenty of twists and turns, with fans of lots of clubs left biting their nails until the final day of the season.
After making the worst start in Championship history, Sheffield Wednesday looked set to go down. However, under Danny Rohl, they made an unexpected turnaround, and they don’t even feature in the conversation for Opta’s Supercomputer this season.
This season, Cardiff City are favourites to go down. The Welsh side finished 12th last season, but the Supercomputer believes their time is up this season.
Oxford United who won the League One play-off final last season are expected to have a tough season but are only third favourites to return to League One.
The other two promoted teams also feature on the list, but have been given a good chance to stay up:
- Cardiff City – 49.6%
- Plymouth Argyle – 34.9%
- Oxford United – 27.9%
- Sunderland – 24.1%
- QPR – 19.2%
- Derby County – 18.5%
- Preston – 17.9%
- Portsmouth – 17%
- Blackburn Rovers – 15.9%
- Watford – 13.8%
What’s Opta Supercomputer’s final league table prediction?
1st: Leeds United
2nd: Middlesbrough
3rd: Burnley
4th: West Bromwich Albion
5th: Luton Town
6th: Norwich City
7th: Coventry City
8th: Hull City
9th: Sheffield United
10th: Bristol City
11th: Swansea City
12th: Sheffield Wednesday
13th: Stoke City
14th: Millwall
15th: Watford
16th: Blackburn Rovers
17th: Portsmouth
18th: Preston North End
19th: Derby County
20th: Queens Park Rangers
21st: Sunderland
22nd: Oxford United
23rd: Plymouth Argyle
24th: Cardiff City