Portsmouth FC, newly promoted from League One last season, have started their season in the Championship quite poorly to say the least. Having just secured their first home win over the weekend by beating Preston North End 3-1, the question of whether they can pull themselves out of the relegation zone is becoming a fascinating one. What do the underlying statistics suggest? Is there any evidence to suggest they can pull themselves out? Some loaded questions, but ones that might be easier to answer than expected.
Home and Away Form
Looking at form, especially home and away, can be a good indicator of whether a team can survive relegation. Most would agree one must take a majority of their points while at home. Unfortunately for Portsmouth, as noted above, their first home win just came this last weekend. Perhaps that result might help Portsmouth turn that home record around, but the stats tend to suggest they need to score more to succeed. Who would have thought, right? According to the statistics, Portsmouth are only scoring .86 goals per match off an average 1.32 xG while conceding an average of 1.43 xG at home. What about their away form? As one would expect for a bottom table side, it’s just as bad if not worse.
While they have split their losses between home and away, they have conceded an average xG of 2.25 while only scoring an average of 1.00 xG. Portsmouth have also failed to keep a clean sheet on the road all season. When Portsmouth do have a clean sheet, it’s been a home draw. The form both home and away, in terms of record, is actually the same, but it feels like they are more competitive yet slightly unlucky at home. On the road, one could argue they just can’t find the winning edge consistently and are getting beaten at the back.
Lack of Scoring Punch
As noted above, no matter where you lol, Portsmouth lack an attacking punch. They don’t create a ton of chances and don’t capitalize when they do. Their top scorer, Callum Lang, only has four goals, and there is a four way tie for second at two goals scored. Obviously, this makes sense considering where Portsmouth are in the table, but looking at them last season, they were a very free scoring team in League One with many similar players. What changed? One could argue that it’s simply that Championship defences are better. However, they got some good or solid attacking players in the summer transfer window including Josh Murphy from Oxford United, Andre Dozzell from QPR, and Samuel Silvera on loan from Middlesbrough.
It feels like Portsmouth tend to try and be the free attacking team they were from last season. Unfortunately for them, that doesn’t work for Portsmouth. When watching them, you see them trying to attack with a wing style of play where they want the wings to roam and cross chances into the box. Usually when Portsmouth score though, it’s off a counter, a chaotic set piece, or a mistake by the other team. A prime example is their game against Sheffield Wednesday a couple weeks ago. Connor Ogilvie scored the only Portsmouth goal off a set piece situation where he had a vicious header and gave Portsmouth the lead in first half stoppage time. Portsmouth tend to score better in the first half and that drops off dramatically in the second half. One of their better results was a draw at Middlesbrough early in the season where Callum Lang took advantage of two Middlesbrough mistakes in the first half. and slotted home both. In short, it feels like Portsmouth are not playing a tactic that suits the attacking players they have
Defence Too Leaky?
When looking at the Portsmouth result, it’s hard to not notice that Portsmouth have only had two clean sheets all season, and those were in 0-0 draws. They loaded up on defensive players in the transfer window, but why can’t they seem to stop teams from scoring? It feels like this is because, as mentioned above, Portsmouth want to be a free attacking team and get exposed easily when they get up field quickly.
Portsmouth tend to lose shape and let teams carve them old too easily, and one can look no further than the Stoke City game where they got drubbed 6-1. In the above-mentioned game against Middlesbrough, despite having a 2-0 lead after the first half and their goalkeeper having a great game, they just kept getting cut open to the point where they eventually broke and gave up a well cut chance and a penalty in second half stoppage time to eventually drop two points on the road. That game feels now like a summary of the season for Portsmouth. They’ve conceded an average of 1.87 goals per game, and that just is not good enough if you want to be competitive in the Championship especially with a limited attack like Portsmouth has.
So can Portsmouth survive relegation? Sure, it is possible. It is the Championship after all, anything can happen. However, the outlook feels grim. Unless they change their tactics and maybe get a couple decent attacking options to help them score consistently, the outlook looks bleak for boys in Portsmouth.