The 2024/25 Premier League season concludes on Sunday following another year full of memorable moments. As always, all 10 games will kick off simultaneously for sporting integrity.
While we already know the champions, three of the six UEFA Champions League spots, and the three relegated teams, there are still some things left to be decided. Five teams are in the running for the final three places in the UCL, while two others are chasing a potential European spot.
Ahead of the final day of play, The Deck takes a look at who is still fighting for something, and what they need to succeed.
Premier League Final Day Permutations
Race for Champions League: Manchester City (68 points), Newcastle (66), Chelsea (66), Aston Villa (66), Nottingham Forest (65)
We start with the race for the final three Champions League spots. Five teams can still join Liverpool, Arsenal, and Europa League winners Tottenham in the UCL next fall. Regardless of what happens, all five teams will be in Europe next campaign.
Manchester City heads into Sunday in the best situation. They just need a point to return to the UCL next campaign. They head to Craven Cottage to battle Fulham. The Cityzens have guaranteed themselves at minimum a Europa League spot, but they will only participate in that competition if they lose, and all three of Newcastle, Chelsea, and Aston Villa win.
For Newcastle, who took the EFL Cup back in March, they will enter the UCL for the second time in three years with a victory at home to Everton. However, the Magpies will also qualify if Aston Villa loses and Nottingham Forest fails to win their match.
Chelsea is also in a similar situation to Newcastle. Win, and the Blues will end a three-year wait to return to Europe’s premier club competition. A draw will also do the trick if Villa does not win. Defeat will confine the London-based club to sixth at best. If Villa voids defeat, then it will be seventh place and potentially a return to the Conference League next August. If they finish outside of the top five and win the UECL on Wednesday, that will impact the Premier League’s European places. More on that below.
Aston Villa is in a tough situation. They need to beat Manchester United, who lost in Wednesday’s UEL final, and hope that either Manchester City loses, or Chelsea and/or Newcastle do not win. Any of those scenarios will see them play UCL football for the second season running. Otherwise, it will be UEL or even UECL football for Unai Emery’s men later on this year.
Potential Conference League Spot: Brighton (58), Brentford (55)
There is a scenario where the eighth place team could still enter the Conference League next season. The only way this happens is if Chelsea ends up in seventh (or sixth, with Newcastle seventh) and wins the UECL on Wednesday.
As per UEFA’s rebalancing principles, the European Performance Spot (EPS) – the extra berth in Europe in the UCL – is applied after all titleholder rebalancing is done. That is to say, the initial European spots available for the Premier League are what determines titleholder rebalancing, which happens when the winner of the UCL, UEL, or UECL qualifies for Europe domestically before applying an EPS.
This is why if Chelsea finishes sixth (assuming Newcastle finishes above them), they would have initially taken the UECL spot. If they win UEFA’s third tier club competition, they enter the UEL as titleholders. England would lose their place in the UECL, as that spot would be rebalanced by promoting cup winners from lower leagues in the UECL qualifying rounds. Instead, the seventh place team would take the UEL league phase berth passed down to them after EPS rebalancing.
If Chelsea finishes seventh, or if they finish sixth and Newcastle seventh, they would not have qualified for Europe before considering the EPS. The top four enter the UCL, and Crystal Palace as the cup winner would enter the UEL along with the fifth place side. The EFL Cup winner (Newcastle), or the sixth place side (should the Magpies finish fifth or higher) enters the UECL playoff round.
In this case, Chelsea would qualify for Europe solely as the Conference League winners. No titleholder rebalancing would occur. Then, the EPS is applied. The Premier League’s European places given to the fifth and potentially sixth place team move down a spot in the league. However, Chelsea’s Europa League place at UECL winners would not be passed down, as that is a continental spot, rather than a league place. Should this occur, England will have 10 European spots.
This means that the eighth place side, in this scenario, would take the UECL berth awarded to England. That is where Brighton and Brentford come in. The Seagulls need just a point at UEL winners Tottenham to secure eighth place. If they lose, the Bees will take that spot from them, provided they beat Wolves away. They are the only two sides still in the running as Bournemouth and Fulham recently lost out.
Should Brighton qualify for Europe, it would be their second time doing so, all within the space of three years. As for Brentford, they have never participated in continental football before.
So while there may not be as much left to play for in the Premier League on Sunday, there are still six of the 10 games left where something of note is up for grabs. Will England end up with 10 European places next season? We will find out on Sunday, and possibly Wednesday as well.