As the long slog of the international break draws to a close and club football prepares to return, now is a great time to look at the upper echelons of the Premier League and speculate how things will unfold by game week 38.
What surprises might there be along the way this season? Who will achieve, and who will narrowly miss out, on the Champions League? And of course, who will win the title? While the top five sides appear to be a cut above the rest, anything can happen, and at this stage, the title is still up for grabs for anyone.
Read on for The Deck’s Premier League top six predictions, which follow our verdict on who will be relegated.
Premier League Top Six Predictions
6th – Tottenham Hotspur
For this prediction to come true, Spurs must overcome Brighton, Newcastle, and Fulham, who sit above Tottenham in the table at present. However, there are reasons for the Lilywhites to be hopeful of 6th place and the Europa Conference League.
Though Spurs didn’t make many summer signings, the additions of Archie Gray, Dominic Solanke and Wilson Odobert are positive and provide plenty of reason for excitement. Solanke has already provided three goal contributions in the league this season and is sure to provide more whilst Odobert and Gray are both excellent young talents who are sure to exponentially improve the level of the squad.
Spurs are currently first in the Premier League for expected goals. However, holding them back is that they only have the 7th best-expected goals conceded in the league. If they can maintain their underlying attacking stats and improve upon their defensive ones, 6th may even turn out to be a conservative prediction.
5th – Aston Villa
Last season, Aston Villa shocked the Premier League to finish in the top four, climbing from a seventh-place finish in the previous campaign. Unai Emery has turned Villa into a team capable of competing with the very best sides in European Football.
Currently sitting in 5th place, Villa are fighting for back-to-back Champions League qualifications. The squad at the disposal of Emery is very impressive with elite-level talents filling their ranks such as Ollie Watkins and Emiliano Martinez. They also have some talented prospects in players such as Jhon Duran, who has won several games for The Villains as a substitute already this season.
However, this prediction has them just missing out on a top-four spot with Chelsea re-securing a spot in the Champions League. The quality of players in the squad at Chelsea and the nature of the depth available to Enzo Maresca, coupled with the European games Aston Villa now have to contend with, means they may finish slightly lower than last season.
That said, there is no guarantee that even finishing 5th, Villa will not maintain Champions League status. This is because the Premier League gains a fifth UCL qualifying spot, in the scenario that Premier League clubs in the Champions League perform well in a new rule which is part of wider changes to the format of the competition.
4th – Arsenal
On the surface, the start that Arsenal have made so far this season has been a very positive one. They are joined by only Man City in having not lost a game this season and have scored the third most goals while having the second-best defensive record.
However, statistics suggest that their current form is not sustainable for how the Gunners are performing. Statistics indicate Arsenal have scored two goals more than expected and have conceded one less than they should have. These differences indicate that Arsenal have so far accrued five points more than they should have.
While they are still very likely to finish within a Champions League spot, another side that currently trails them has a better outlook for how high in the top four they will finish. The talent Mikel Arteta has available to him is definitely capable of defying expected goals, but outperforming by so much already sets a very difficult precedent for the Gunners to maintain.
3rd – Chelsea FC
It is safe to say that the Blues are back and have been ever since their awful 12th-place finish in the 2022/23 season. Following their 6th place finish last season, they now look to be making a fight for a Champions League spot and while it has taken some time, it appears the heavy investment from owner Todd Boehly is finally paying off.
Chelsea are currently fourth and the fight for a Champions League spot appears to be heating up between them and Aston Villa with goal difference being the only thing that currently separates the sides. Expected goals suggest that Chelsea are currently scoring and conceding as much as they would statistically be expected to and this is the best-case scenario for the Blues because it means that their current form is sustainable.
According to the xG table, Chelsea should actually be in the top two right now so a Champions League spot seems inevitable. While the two teams predicted to finish ahead of them have their world-class stars they rely on such as Mohammed Salah or Erling Haaland, Chelsea boasts players such as Cole Palmer who is arguably, much to the dismay of the Etihad faithful, the best player in the Premier League right now.
2nd – Liverpool FC
Despite being the current league leaders, this prediction has Liverpool falling just short of claiming the title to the current title holders. Over the last seven years, Liverpool are the only side to prevent City winning the Premier League when they famously achieved an incredible 99 points in the 2019/20 season.
The Reds have similarly started this season in great form, winning six matches and losing just once. While they are only joint 5th for goals scored, Liverpool have enjoyed by far the best defensive record in the division with only two goals conceded thus far, three times better than joint second Nottingham Forest and Arsenal.
The prediction for Liverpool to lose their first-place spot to Manchester City is based on the fact that City have such a track record of consistency and have overcome countless scenarios where it seemed improbable for them to win the Premier League.
In the 2022/23 season City were eight points behind Arsenal in gameweek 29 and come the end of the season, they were five ahead, highlighting the ability of City to perform at an extremely high standard when it matters. Another factor is despite having incredible talents like Salah, Liverpool still lacks a player who can reach the type of numbers that Haaland does for the Citizens.
1st – Manchester City
Despite a lot of controversy off the pitch with the ultimate decision over the 130 charges looming over them potentially as soon as the end of the year, Pep Guardiola will no doubt want his entire squad fully focused on footballing matters which they can control. Currently, Manchester City find themselves 2nd place.
The Citizens have thus far scored 17 goals which is the most goals in the division which is in no small part thanks to the absurd 10 goals that the lethal Haaland has already netted for the side. While they have been unstoppable in attack, their defence has allowed in eight goals which is bettered by several teams including the league leaders Liverpool who have so far conceded only two goals, a quarter of City’s total.
Manchester City will, in all likelihood, claim their 11th Premier League title.
However, defensive mistakes that led to dropping points in draws to Newcastle and Arsenal will need addressing. Guardiola also has the huge task of drawing his players’ attention away from the charges they are battling and entirely focusing on being the lethal side everyone knows them to be.