There was a significant 18-point gap between Huddersfield Town and Rotherham United in the Championship last season and the current campaign is shaping up in a similar vein as the Terriers sit eight points above Steve Evans’ side after just three games, who have yet to score in League One.
The teams meet at the AESSEAL New York Stadium in the Saturday lunchtime kickoff with their last meeting at the venue coming in March, where they played out a scoreless draw.
Read on for The Deck’s regular preview of a selected League One fixture every game week, with Wrexham’s home meeting with Reading the feature from matchday three.
Huddersfield Town Seamlessly Settle Into Life in League One
Huddersfield Town are under new management after the appointment of former Cheltenham Town manager Michael Duff in May. The transfer window saw the departure of Jack Rudoni to Coventry City in a multi-million-pound deal but they have recruited well and picked up an impressive win at Peterborough United on the opening weekend.
Back-to-back home wins followed, with a 2-1 win over Stevenage before a 1-0 success over Shrewsbury Town where West Ham loanee Callum Marshall scored the winner in the first half. Huddersfield Town have a strong squad at this level with the likes of Ben Wiles and Anthony Evans dominating in midfield and summer signing Herbie Kane ready to step in when he settles into the squad.
Huddersfield Town sit second in the league table and are in the same position for expected goals with 5.88 and have the fifth-best record of expected goals against of 2.29. The fact that they have conceded just once makes the statistic even more impressive but there will be tougher tests ahead, starting with Rotherham United this weekend.
Rotherham United Continue Struggles in Front of Goal
The Millers accumulated just 27 points in the Championship last season as a result of ineffective attacking play as they scored just 37 goals. They had the lowest expected goals tally in a miserable campaign and it has become a recurring story as they have been relegated in four of their last five appearances in the second tier.
Steve Evans has returned after leading Rotherham United to promotion from League One and Two in his previous spell but has been unable to lift the club’s fortunes in the opening weeks. They drew with Bristol Rovers in their only league game at ASSEAL New York Stadium but have failed to score from an expected goals tally of 5.54.
If they continue to create that level of chances their form should turn around and they have the opportunity to claim a major scalp against a heavily fancied Huddersfield Town. They average the highest number of shots per game in the division but will need a more clinical display from Sam Nombe and new arrival Jonson Clarke-Harris, as the duo have yet to find the net from a combined expected goals tally of 2.19.
The manager is keeping faith in his players and he commented on the expected goals tallies ahead of this encounter, telling the club’s official website:
“I think there are signs in football when your team is disjointed and not playing well and your eyes can tell you lies.
“The one thing that doesn’t lie in the world of football are the statistics behind it. The facts are we haven’t scored a goal [in the league] and if you don’t score goals you aren’t going to get many points.
“The expected goal statistics show that we’re quite exceptional at scoring chances and dominating large spells of games.
“Interestingly our xG for conceding goals is at the right end as well, so we’re doing a lot right. Now it’s just a case of having a little bit of luck and better finishing.
“Football can change within 10 minutes, experience tells us that. We’ll continue to work hard and support the players.”
Prediction
The form book points to a comfortable away win but Rotherham United are creating chances and are bound to hit the goal trail. There is little to separate the sides when you dig into the data and this encounter could be much closer than their early positions in the league table might suggest.
Steve Evans is unbeaten in his two meetings with Huddersfield Town as manager of the Millers, picking up four points in the 2014/15 season. This game is difficult to predict from the outset and appears to be a 50/50 in terms of the result.