One of the most thrilling Serie A seasons of all-time is coming to an end this weekend. After 37 rounds of football, there is still one matchweek left. Between Friday and Sunday, we have two teams still competing for the title, four sides trying to claim the last three European spots (including a Champions League place), and five teams aiming to avoid the drop.
The Serie A campaign might not even fully end this weekend, as there could still be two playoff matches after. Ahead of the final week of (regular season) play, here is a look at who is fighting for what, as well as the permutations.
Serie A Final Matchday Permutations
Battle for the Scudetto: Napoli (79 points), Internazionale (78)
Unlike the other ‘Big 5’ leagues this term, the title has not yet been decided going into Friday’s action. Napoli and Inter Milan have gone back-and-forth throughout the second half of the season. Yet, neither have been able to clinch the league title.
Antonio Conte’s Napoli heads into the final round with a point more than his former employers. The scenario is simple for the Partenopei: beat Cagliari at home, and they will win their second Scudetto in three years. A draw is only enough if Inter fails to win. Speaking of the Nerazzurri, who have a Champions League final on 31 May, they must win at Como and hope Napoli fails to do so if they are to be champions on Friday.
It begs the question though, what happens if they finish level on points? This can still happen if Napoli loses and Inter draws. In this case, a playoff match will occur to decide the champion. This match would likely occur on Tuesday to give Inter enough time for their UCL final the Saturday after.
While neither Cagliari nor Como have anything of note to play for, they will certainly look to play the role of spoilers. The latter has not lost in their last eight games, making them a tricky prospect for Inter. Even the club from Sardegna has two wins from their last four. As such, this title race will be very much worth the watch.
Remaining European Spots: Juventus (67), AS Roma (66), Lazio (65), Fiorentina (62)
Three teams are competing for the final Serie A place in the UCL next season, looking to join Napoli, Inter, and Atalanta. Juventus currently has the edge over Roma and Lazio heading into their game at Venezia. Should the Bianconeri win, they will finish fourth. The two Rome-based sides failing to win would also assure them fourth place regardless of their result.
Roma‘s hopes of returning to UEFA’s premier club competition for the first time since 2018/19 will depend on them beating Torino on the road, while Juve drops points. A draw will likely not be enough for the Giallorossi, as Juve currently has a better goal difference. A loss will see them finish fifth at best, though they would drop to sixth if the fail to collect three points while Lazio does so.
Speaking of the Biancocelesti, they face a struggling Lecce team on Sunday. Lazio will need a win, coupled with a Juventus defeat and a Roma draw or loss. That is their only route to UCL football in the fall. If they finish level on points with either team, they will lose out on head-to-head.
However, unlike Juve and Roma, Lazio has yet to secure a place in Europe. That is where Firoentina comes in. La Viola are in Udine to take on Udinese. They can only qualify for the UEFA Conference League, for the fourth year running. In order for that to happen, the two-time UECL finalist needs to win and hope that Lazio loses. Any other scenario will see them miss out on Europe.
Relegation: Hellas Verona (34), Parma (33), Lecce (31), Empoli (31), Venezia (29)
Five teams are aiming to avoid the same fate as Monza and drop to Serie B. Four of the five teams can still go down on Sunday, while the other can only still take part in a two-team playoff.
Hellas Verona is the one team in this group who cannot be relegated on Sunday. They face Empoli in what will be a huge match for both teams. Lose that match, and Verona will have to watch for results to go their way elsewhere in order to avoid a potential playoff. There could be a three-way, or even four-way tie on 34 points involving Verona, Empoli, Parma, and Lecce.
Parma, like Verona, will be safe with a win. A point will also be enough if at least one of Lecce or Empoli fail to collect three points.
Venezia’s scenario is simple: they must win and hope that at least one of Lecce or Empoli fail to do so. Any other scenario will see them go down to Serie B. As for Lecce and Empoli, they are in an interesting situation. If both lose, they will go down only if Venezia wins. If both draw or lose, and Venezia does not win, the pair face each other in a playoff to determine who stays in the league.
Regarding three-way or four-way ties here, the teams who finish 17th and 18th after breaking those ties will meet in the playoff. Below are all of the possible three-way/four-way ties that can occur, and who would partake in a playoff in this case (teams listed from in order of final position from left to right, with the sides in bold partaking in the playoff):
– Four-way tie on 34 points: Lecce, Empoli, Verona, Parma
– Three-way tie on 34 points: Lecce, Empoli, Verona
– Three-way tie on 32 points: Lecce, Venezia, Empoli
This means that so long as Lecce finishes level with at least one other team for 17th spot, they cannot be automatically relegated on Sunday.
One thing we can say about the final weekend of the Serie A, this will be an unforgettable Friday and Sunday. Not everything may be decided on either night, but it will be must-watch TV for fans of calcio.