The 2024-2025 regular season in the Championship is a little over halfway done, and it has been quite the season. All of the races this season have been competitive and entertaining, and a supercomputer has taken on the task of predicting the final standings and outcomes of the season.
Currently, Leeds United lead the league with 59 points, but their lead is only one point as Sheffield United has 58 points. Burnley and Sunderland cannot be counted out of the promotion race either with 56 and 54 points respectively.
The playoff race is rather tight as well. Middlesbrough is in fifth place right now with 44 points. Blackburn is right behind in sixth at 42 points, with West Bromwich Albion and Watford tied at 41 points, Sheffield Wednesday at 40 points, and QPR holding 38 points.
Meanwhile, the relegation battle is no different with Plymouth Argyle in last place with 21 points. Hull City and Luton Town are both in the relegation zone tied at 26 points. Derby County are just outside the drop with 27 points and Stoke City and Cardiff City are only two points off the relegation zone with 28 points. Portsmouth and finally Millwall bring up the rear of the relegation battle with 29 and 31 points separately.
Things could change rapidly though in a Championship season, and Opta’s supercomputer has combed through the data and given a rough prediction of what the final Championship table will look like.
The Title Race: A Three Horse Race
According to the supercomputer, the promotion race will be super close between Leeds United and Sheffield United. The computer predicts that Leeds United will finish with 91.85 points, and Sheffield United will fall just short with 90.53 points. The supercomputer says that Burnley will fall just short with 88.50 points.
The title odds, however, are a bit more in favour of Leeds United. Only three teams have a 20% or greater chance to win the title. While Leeds United’s title odds are at 46.96%, Sheffield United has only a 29.94% chance, and Burnley has a mere 20.72% chance to win the title. Sunderland has the highest title odds outside of the top three, but they are only at 2.76%.
Promotion Race: Sheffield United’s to Lose?
While the computer might feel confident about Leeds United winning the title, the odds for automatic promotion are somewhat similar as Sheffield United has the best odds for promotion at 63.56%. Burnley, who is projected to finish with 88.50 points, has the next closest odds to be automatically promoted at 48.00%. From there, the drop-off is steep with Sunderland having the next best odds at 12.72% and then Middlesbrough at a mere 0.06%. The computer certainly thinks that the current top two teams are the obvious favourites to automatically go up to the Premier League.
Playoff Promotion: Surprise Leaders?
Considering how the supercomputer has predicted things so far, the logical conclusion might be that Burnley, who have high odds for automatic promotion, would be the favourite for promotion via the playoffs. Surprisingly, that is not the case. Actually, Burnley have the fourth highest odds of being promoted by the playoffs at 51.82%.
The supercomputer actually favours Sunderland to get promoted. The Wearside club actually has an 86.26% chance to go up to the Premier League through Wembley according to the supercomputer. The supercomputer has them finishing 83.28 points. Middlesbrough, who are projected to finish with 71.08 points, have the second best odds at 58.02%, while West Bromwich Albion have a 55.14% chance to make the Premier League through the playoffs. Blackburn has the next best chance at 31.48%. West Bromwich Albion are forecasted to finish with 70.57 points, beating out Blackburn for the final playoff spot by less than three points as Blackburn are said to finish at 67.93 points.
Relegation Battle: Too Close to Call?
The supercomputer seems to believe that the relegation battle will be the one to watch come the end of the season. The teams projected to be nineteenth to 24th are projected to all be separated by five or fewer points. Plymouth Argyle are expected to be by far the worst team in the Championship as they are projected to finish with 39.88 points and a 90.58% chance to be relegated. Luton Town comes in at 23rd with 46.95 points and a 48.42% chance to be relegated. Cardiff City fill in the final relegation spot finishing with 47.87 points and a 38.80% chance of being relegated.
Hull City and Derby County finish just above the drop zone with Hull City projected to finish 21st by just a tenth of a point. Hull City is expected to have 48.61 points while Derby County is expected to have 48.51 points. Portsmouth, meanwhile, stays clear of drama by securing 50.69 points and ending the season in nineteenth.
In short, the Championship is expected to be its usual, chaotic self if the supercomputer is correct. Lots of drama, heartbreak, and euphoria is exactly why many are fans of this league. If one is curious, the supercomputer’s final standings are as follows:
1. Leeds United: 91.85
2. Sheffield United: 90.53
3. Burnley: 88.50
4. Sunderland: 83.28
5. Middlesbrough: 71.08
6. West Bromwich Albion: 70.57
7. Blackburn: 67.91
8. Watford: 65.38
9. Norwich City: 63.54
10. Bristol City: 63.16
11. Sheffield Wednesday: 63.10
12. QPR: 60.81
13. Coventry City: 59.83
14. Preston North End: 57.33
15. Swansea City: 56.74
16. Oxford United: 55.02
17. Millwall: 54.13
18. Stoke City: 51.48
19. Portsmouth: 50.69
20. Derby County: 48.61
21. Hull City: 48.51
22. Cardiff City: 47.87
23. Luton Town: 46.95
24. Plymouth Argyle: 39.88