The 2024/25 League Two standings have already led to several surprise storylines and with all clubs playing between 24 and 27 matches, a supercomputer has attempted to predict the final outcome of the fourth tier. 

Football statistical experts OPTA have attempted to predict the final standings of the League Two table, using a combination of factors such as form, points per game and the expected xG of their remaining opponents.

Currently, Walsall lead the way at the top of the League Two standings, sitting 12 points clear of Crewe Alexandra and having a +17 better goal difference.

Port Vale completed the top three, whilst the race of the playoffs contained six teams that are separated by just three points as the top seven battle continues to intensify.

At the bottom, Carlisle United and Morecambe occupy the two relegation spots in League Two and face relegation to the National League. They sit seven and five points from safety respectfully.

With that said, let’s break down OPTA’s expectations…

Walsall to cruise to the title whilst three push for the final two

Beginning with the title race in League Two, there are only four teams that have more than a 1.00% chance of winning the title.

Walsall are expected to win the division with an expected points finish of 95.58, whilst AFC Wimbledon, Notts County and Crewe Alexandra are the three remaining sides competing for the final two places.

Those three are currently separated by just 0.71 points, proving to be a major fight for the final automatic promotion places. The current percentage chances of winning the title are as follows;

• Walsall – 93.94%
• AFC Wimbledon – 1.98%
• Notts County – 1.18%
• Crewe Alexandra – 1.08%

The model conclusively determines that Walsall will see the season out as league champions, whilst two of the remaining three will join the Saddlers automatically in League One next season.

Play-off race continues to heat up

Removing Crewe Alexandra out of the equation, three play-off spots are remaining in League Two and those are set to be competed by four clubs, whilst the rest are a minimum of six points off.

• Port Vale – 76.34
• Doncaster Rovers – 75.67
• Bradford City 74.46
• Salford City – 72.48

If you add Crewe Alexandra in and remove Salford City (the team expected to finish eighth and miss out), the play-off winners percentage does change.

According to OPTA, Crewe Alexandra would face Bradford City in the semi-final, whilst Port Vale face Doncaster Rovers in the other match. Crewe have a 50.92% chance of winning promotion via the play-offs, but that amount is set to be lower due to their higher chance of being promoted automatically.

Meanwhile, Bradford (51.36%), Doncaster (53.18%) and Port Vale (52.42%) are left.

Therefore, the current favourites according to OPTA to be promoted via the play-offs are Doncaster Rovers.

Which two are going down?

Unlike the other areas of this article, the relegation battle is predicted to be very straightforward and if you look at the current standings – it shouldn’t make for a surprise to anyone.

Carlisle United are seven points off safety and currently have a 68.84% chance of being relegated to the National League.

Meanwhile, Morecambe are five points away from safety and have a 63.64% chance of following Carlisle out of the football league.

Tranmere Rovers (22.80%) and Accrington Stanley (11.68%) are the only other clubs that have a high chance of going down.

OPTA’s predicted final League Two standings

All data is correct as of 21:20 on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 via OPTA.