Year-on-year the task for promoted clubs of staying in the Premier League gets more difficult and this season is no different. After 21 game weeks have passed, the relegation spots are taken up by Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town all three gained promotion last season.
Opta have run the relegation battle through their supercomputer 10,000 times and the results are not good reading for fans of the newly promoted clubs.
Favourites for the drop are Southampton on a huge 99.80% followed by Leicester City on 91.03% and Ipswich Town on a far more reasonable 71.26%. However there is a big gap to the next most likely side to face the drop with Wolves on 30.83%. Realistically those relegated will come from the four sides mentioned but Everton and their newly appointed boss David Moyes come in with a 6.38% chance of facing the drop.
West Ham (0.39%), Brentford (0.09%), Crystal Palace (0.08%), Tottenham (0.08%) & Manchester United (0.06%) are the teams next at risk of going down but as the percentages show, are unlikely to get dragged into a relegation scrap this season.
State of play
Having played 22 matches, Southampton have claimed a measly six points with a win at home to Everton the only three points the Saints have picked up this season to date.
Over double that tally, Leicester City sit in 19th position with 14 points. Having started the season in reasonably good form the appointment of new coach Ruud Van Nistelrooy hasn’t had the desired effect when it comes to gaining results.
After defeating West Ham in his first game in charge, the former Manchester United man has failed to claim a victory in the league since the beginning of December.
Ipswich Town make up the bottom three on 16 points. They are joined on points with Wolves and that is understandably reflected in the likelihood of the Tractor Boys going down.
Even though they have struggled to pick up points at times, Kieran McKenna’s men have been a breath of fresh air in the league. Their front-foot style of play has been a joy to watch so far this season.
Previous Premier League Seasons
We have witnessed over the last number of years the mixed fortunes promoted teams have the year following their promotion to the Premier League.
Last season, all three that came up went straight back down without leaving any impression on the league (Sheffield United, Burnley, Luton Town).
In contrast to the previous season where Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest all made the step-up and have since become established clubs in the league with Forest currently sitting in a European spot this season (3rd).
It proves that investment is crucial within these clubs as the difference between the two leagues continues to grow and expand.
It’s hard to look past the teams that currently occupy the bottom three places to secure their place in the Premier League for another year but stranger things have happened.