The 2025/26 League One season is well underway, with most teams having played at least eight games. With that the Opta Supercomputer has revealed its latest prediction.
Bradford City currently sit top of the tree, with 20 points from nine games which included a thrashing of title rivals Cardiff City. Surprise promotion candidates Stevenage and Lincoln City sit second and third respectively. Huddersfield Town and Barnsley join the Imps and Bluebirds in the play-off spots.
At the other end of the table Rotherham United, Blackpool and Burton Albion are joined by Peterborough United, who do seem to have turned a corner since their poor start.
However, with the season not even a quarter of the way through, the supercomputer at statistics and data experts Opta have been crunching the numbers to try and predict who will earn promotion to the Championship.
EFL League One Table and Statistics
Pre-Season League One Lowdown Prediction
Opta Supercomputer League One Prediction – Relegation
There are four relegation spots from League One to League Two meaning clubs in 21st and below would drop into the fourth tier next year. Last year saw Crawley Town, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge United and Shrewsbury Town end their League One spell.
21st Peterborough United
Arguably the biggest name on the list would be Peterborough United. Darren Ferguson’s side have suffered a dreadful start to the season and sit 23rd in the table.
Despite a couple of good results, Opta still gives them a 46.10% chance of relegation from League One.
22nd Port Vale
Port Vale are one of two sides currently outside the bottom four to be predicted to be relegated. They sit 19th, but with Blackpool, Rotherham and Reading all predicted to improve, they may have to settle for a return to League Two football.
Darren Moore’s side are 45.20% likely to be relegated.
23rd Exeter City
Currently looking good in 16th, a string of poor results have cast doubt over their long term future in the third tier.
The Grecians are predicted to drop all the way to 23rd, with a 47.96% chance of relegation.
24th Burton Albion
The league’s bottom club is unsurprisingly predicted to finish bottom at the end of the season. Despite pulling off a great escape last campaign, it now looks increasingly unlikely they can pull off the same feat.
They are a huge 58.10% likely to be relegated.
Play-Offs
Love them or hate them, the play-offs are a great way to give your club a chance of promotion after missing out on the automatic spots. Charlton Athletic beat Leyton Orient to secure their return to the Championship last season at Wembley, who will do it this year?
League One has four play-off spots, from third place down to sixth. Lincoln City, Cardiff City, Huddersfield and Barnsley currently occupy those spots.
6th Bolton Wanderers
Forever the bridesmaid and never the bride. Bolton Wanderers are familiar with the League One Play-Offs, one of the most defining moments of Ian Evatt’s tenure was his failure at Wembley. The Trotters are currently backed to finish 6th, just one point above Barnsley.
They are currently given an 8% chance of the title, 16.7% chance of automatic promotion and a 30.32% chance of the play-offs or higher.
5th Stevenage
Arguably one of the surprise packages of the League One season. I certainly underestimated them in our pre-season predictions. However, Alex Revell has taken the league by storm and sit deservedly 2nd place. However, Opta predict that they will drop slightly to 5th, earning a play-off spot at the end of the season.
They are currently given an 11% chance of the title, 20% chance of automatic promotion and 34.34% chance of the play-offs or higher.
4th Bradford City
After earning promotion last season Graham Alexander’s Bradford City sit deservedly top of the League One table. They have adapted well and their squad seem to have a unity many will envy. However, Opta does expect that some of this early season buzz to die down as they settle for fourth.
They have an 11.20% chance of the title, 21.7% chance of automatic promotion and a 34.36% chance of the play-offs or higher.
3rd Lincoln City
One of the other surprise packages of League One this season. Michael Skubala’s side have gone from one of the youngest squads in the division this time last year, to one of the oldest. With it has come a balance that the Imps have arguably needed for some time. For every James Collins in the squad there is a Freddie Draper there to pick up the mantle. The strength in depth is probably the strongest the LNER Stadium has seen in a few years. They are currently 3rd in the table and are predicted to remain in 3rd, just missing out on the automatics by one point.
They have an 11.6% chance of the title, 22.8% chance of automatic promotion and a 34.24% chance of the play-offs or higher.
Automatic Promotion
2nd Cardiff City
After relegation from the Championship last season, with a new manager at the helm Cardiff were predicted to take some time to adapt. However, despite a few stumbles along the way, they look good to keep up a push for promotion this season. However, Opta predict that they will miss out on the title to a surprising club.
Cardiff have a 15.06% chance of the title, 26.9% chance of automatic promotion, and a 35% chance of the play-offs or higher.
League One Prediction – Champions
1st Stockport County
This may come as a surprise to those who have been following the start to the League One season. Dave Challinor’s side currently sit eighth in the table. They have suffered some difficult results, including the 4-2 loss to Plymouth Argyle. However, Opta predicts that they will turn it around and win the title.
They give them an 18.6% chance of winning the league, 32.14% of automatic promotion and 35.38% chance of the play-offs or higher.
Final League One Prediction
| 2 | Cardiff City |
| 3 | Lincoln City |
| 4 | Bradford City |
| 5 | Stevenage |
| 6 | Bolton Wanderers |
| 7 | Barnsley |
| 8 | Luton Town |
| 9 | Leyton Orient |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town |
| 11 | Wigan Athletic |
| 12 | Doncaster Rovers |
| 13 | Wycombe Wanderers |
| 14 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 15 | Reading |
| 16 | Plymouth |
| 17 | Blackpool |
| 18 | Mansfield Town |
| 19 | Northampton Town |
| 20 | Rotherham United |
| 21 | Peterborough United |
| 22 | Port Vale |
| 23 | Exeter City |
| 24 | Burton Albion |
League One Prediction In Summary
- Stockport County predicted to win League One
- Cardiff City predicted to get automatic promotion to the Championship
- Lincoln City, Bradford City, Stevenage and Bolton Wanderers predicted to make the play-offs
- Peterborough United, Port Vale, Exeter City and Burton Albion predicted to be relegated to League Two