After the first few months of the National League season, one thing has already become clear: the battle for promotion to the EFL promises to be a captivating fight to the finish.
The potentially fancied sides before a ball was kicked, including Forest Green Rovers, Carlisle United, and Rochdale, have surged to the fifth-tier summit, but a host of very capable challengers are already snapping at their heels.
All three pace-setters have encountered early reality checks, but have, for the most part, flexed their considerable muscle, resulting in a close competition forming at the top.
In this comprehensive deep dive, we will look at the sides most equipped to sustain a title charge, as well as those with the potential to disrupt the current order of power in the National League.
Forest Green Rovers Inspired By 2017 Wembley Success
Under the focused and determined leadership of Robbie Savage, current league leaders Forest Green have their sights firmly set on an EFL return after two years away.
The Nailsworth club earned promotion from the National League via the play-offs in 2017, beginning an exciting journey up to League One. After back-to-back relegations that saw them return to where they started, Forest Green will now draw upon the memories of eights years ago in an attempt to rise again.
Or maybe, judging by their start, the Green are targeting the title and automatic promotion this time around without the need for play-offs. They have made an unbeaten start to their league campaign, winning eight and drawing three of their opening 11 matches.
Having combined a reliable source of goals at the right end of the pitch with a very mean defensive unit, things are looking bright at the New Lawn. They have conceded only five goals so far, with only close challengers Rochdale and Hartlepool United boasting a meaner record.
Perhaps the greatest threat to Forest Green’s title aspirations comes in the form of the admiring glances aimed towards Robbie Savage from sides higher up the pyramid. But right now, all hands are on deck in Gloucestershire, with the aim of maintaining their near faultless start.
Carlisle Seeking Immediate EFL Return
After the heartbreak of relegation ended their 20-year stay in the EFL last season, a united front has galvanised Carlisle, fuelling their push for a rapid return.
Decisive moves in the transfer market, and a renewed sense of belief have been the driving force behind the Cumbrians’ bright start. Mark Hughes’ continuation at the helm has seen him assemble a deep squad able to naturally slot into his tactical framework.
Marquee summer signing Regan Linney has wasted little time in making his mark and has already struck up some devastating partnerships with his teammates.
However, Carlisle’s serene progress was brought to a shuddering halt on Tuesday night, as York City ran out 5-0 winners at The York Community Stadium. Reality truly hit for Mark Hughes, and the former Wales boss hopes it is a solitary bump in the road.
They had recorded seven wins in their opening ten league matches, and have some potentially season-defining matches on the horizon. Their only defeat prior to their trip to York came away at Sutton United.
On the other hand, Brunton Park is becoming something of a fortress again for Carlisle, much to the delight of the supporters who have been starved of home wins in recent seasons. The team’s renewed dominance at home has not only improved results but also provided a necessary reminder of how difficult a challenge visiting Brunton Park is for visiting sides.
In an effort to further enhance the matchday atmosphere, the club made the strategic decision to open the lesser-used Petteril end of the ground to away supporters for their recent home game versus Aldershot. There is a shared belief by many that this move created a more vibrant and engaging atmosphere for everyone in attendance.
Rochdale Quick To Hit Their Stride
Despite currently sitting third, it is Rochdale that has arguably made the strongest start of all. It is they that boast the most points per game record, winning eight of their nine games played. Postponements mean the Dale have played two fewer matches than their aforementioned rivals.
Jimmy McNulty’s side have navigated a disjointed schedule effectively, to keep pace and leave themselves in a position to grasp the upper hand at the top of the table. Their resounding 4-1 win over Solihull Moors was the statement of intent that they intend to do just that.
Their early success is largely down to an outstanding defensive showing, which has seen them concede just five goals so far. They have the consistent and settled back three comprised of Ethan Ebanks-Landell, Sam Beckwith, and Kyron Gordon to thank for their miserly record.
This has provided a reliable base from which to build, a situation that they’re attacking group is relishing. Only Aldershot has scored more than Dale, and with prolific marksman Mani Dieseruvwe on hand, that goal tally is likely to continue rising.
After two years away, Rochdale appear locked in as they seek to bring EFL football back to Spotland next season.
Club’s Plotting Their Own Promotion Bids
While much focus has understandably been on the frontrunners, plenty of other National League sides have been quietly building momentum. Football has a funny way of defying expectations, so don’t be surprised to see the chasing pack begin to make decisive moves.
A club who may be going slightly under your radar, but who have made an equally impressive beginning to the campaign, are Scunthorpe United.
The Iron are another side hampered by abandonments, but are unbeaten in their opening eight games. They are preparing to host Boreham Wood in a match that could prove an excellent barometer for things to come.
That is because it is The Wood proving to be the biggest threat to the current top three. They have accumulated 20 points so far, leaving them in fourth position with games in hand on those above them.
There are goals coming from everywhere in Luke Garrard’s team, and if that continues, they are going to be more than a match for any opponent.
York City rediscovered the type of form that propelled them to a second-place finish last season when they dispatched Carlisle on Tuesday evening.
The Minstermen will undoubtedly have fire in their belly after coming so close last term. Having seemingly adapted to the change in management this summer, Stuart Maynard’s new side looks ready to challenge again.
An honourable mention must go to the side with the meanest defensive record at this interlude, and that is Hartlepool United. Clean sheets have proven to be the secret to success up and down the divisions, and Simon Grayson’s men have done so in seven out of ten matches this term.
Unearthing The Key To National League Triumph
In the grand scheme of a near ten-month season, the memorable wins and star performers often grab the headlines. But when margins between clubs are so fine, smaller, less discussed details can separate the main contenders from pretenders.
With numerous clubs so closely matched in this season’s fifth-tier, league positions could boil down to how individual clubs navigate their congested festive fixture schedules.
Squad depth and coaches’ ability to manage their players’ fitness levels will likely prove instrumental in determining the eventual order of merit.
Those clubs with dead-ball specialists in their ranks have the added advantage of being able to turn to them for a moment of inspiration.
The form of Hartlepool goalkeeper Harvey Cartwright is proof enough of the points a team’s goalkeeper can earn them with saves across the ninety minutes.
With many of the main protagonists set to meet in the coming weeks, starting with Rochdale’s trip to Carlisle this weekend, we will soon see the league begin to take decisive shape.