UEFA Coefficient Analysis: League Phase Week 3

Before the international break, the first full week of league phase place occurred, giving us many conclusions from a UEFA coefficient perspective. Some nations continued their strong start, while others struggled to impress.

Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the third week of league phase play.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

Looking at the battle for the European Performance Spots (EPS), England has already started its ascent to the top. They jumped two places, and saw the joint-most number of wins that week. That results in them going into second behind Portugal, who they will likely pass next week. A 5-2-2 record is good enough work, particularly for a nation with nine clubs in Europe.

Italy, Spain, and France all had strong showings as well. The latter two had five victories each, with the French obtaining the most points last time out as well. Italy, meanwhile, had only one defeat, which helped them to the third-best weekly UEFA coefficient haul.

Of course, those are all of the primary suspects for the EPS. However, we must keep a very close eye on Poland, who has all four of their clubs in the Conference League. Three of them won in their opening matchday, giving them 1.500 points. If the quartet can successfully negotiate the league phase, they could pull a massive shock and earn and automatic Champions League place.

Denmark dropped out of the top two, and will not be a challenge from here on. Portugal, meanwhile, has 14 victories so far. Whether they will pose a threat for the EPS places is another matter. Of course, it is vital to have the full complement of teams going into the league phase. However, seeing they have their four strongest clubs left, they have reason to believe.

After three weeks of action, England has already started off well. Watch out for the rest of the “Big Five” alongside Poland in this race. Those are the primary suspects here. Portugal is the other country with any real shot at claiming an EPS, but will have to pick up the pace.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Sluggish Week Leaves Portugal Happy

We now turn our attention to the UEFA coefficient battles occurring in the five-year ranking. The race for sixth and seventh is starting to look rather decent for Portugal. Two wins and two losses out of four is not anything fantastic, but seeing that Netherlands and Belgium combined for just 0.500 points, it does feel bigger than it truly is.

The Dutch have had a horrific start to the league phase so far with a 1-1-9 record. The good thing for them is that there is still more than enough time to recover. With that said, they need a positive response, and with haste. If next week’s performances mirror the opening three, things could really get ugly for them. Having the full complement of sides at this stage is important, though it means nothing if they seldom make the most of it.

As for Belgium, they had a reversal of fortune. All three of Union Saint-Gilloise, Club Brugge, and Genk won their opening matches, only for the trio to lose their second clashes. There is little room for error from them, due to Anderlecht and Charleroi failing in qualifying. So, next week will see if they can get back on track in helping Belgium continue their push for seventh.

Portugal is definitely the happiest right now, but we are still early on in the season. Whether Netherlands and Belgium can recover remains to be seen.

Battle for Ninth: Race Finally Coming Alive

After a poor start from both Türkiye and Czechia in the UEFA coefficient battle for ninth, the pair finally started to make some moves last time out. A combined five wins out of a possible seven, and that gives us something to talk about.

A perfect three-for-three from Türkiye has seen them increase their lead to 3.300 over the Czechs. This is despite the former having one less club involved. If they can keep this up, it will be quite the ask for the Czech clubs to match them stride for stride.

Of course, as we will cover in the next section, there is reason for Czechia to be nervously watching over its shoulder. After all, two countries below them will have ambitions on catching them for that all-important 10th place. There is still enough distance between them and those below not to be of immediate danger. But, that could change quite quickly. So, they and Türkiye will need to stick to this type of pace to avoid the potential of a disaster.

Battle for 12th/15th: Greek Failure, Polish and Swiss Press

To everyone’s favourite race – the one for spots in the top 12/top 15. This is always the one with the most eyes, and for good reason. There were two clear winners and two clear losers for the week.

Let us start with the pair who will be left the happiest. Poland and Switzerland collected three wins each, earning 1.500 and 1.200 points respectively. The former is well on their way to the top 12, having passed Denmark in this ranking. As for the latter, their hopes of a place in the top 15 has improved considerably.

The biggest losers here are the ones two took no points at all: Greece and Scotland. Having four teams all fall to defeat in the same week is a massive disappointment for any nation. For the Greeks, it has to be seen as a true failure, given the quartet’s quality. Before this, they had just three defeats on the season. That has doubled in the space of a week.

As for Scotland, they have had the worst showing of any nation in this battle so far. That continued, as Celtic, Rangers, and Aberdeen all lost. They have collected just 2.300 points thus far, a far cry from almost everyone else. If they do not get points again next week, do not be surprised if they get left completely in the dust.

Norway had a solid week thanks to their win and draw. At this stage, a top 15 spot is virtually wrapped up for them. It is just a matter of trying to finish as high as possible. The likelihood of anything higher than 13th is just too low at this point. It is a similar sentiment for Denmark, who grabbed a huge win via FC Midtjylland.

Outside of Switzerland, no one 15th or lower in this race impressed. Sweden went winless, while Austria and Cyprus both lost twice. In essence, all of them are battling for one spot at the moment. Less than 3.500 points separate Austria in 15th and Sweden in 19th. It is now a matter of someone grabbing this race and take control. Cyprus has done that for most of the campaign, and will need to bounce back quickly.

Before moving on, an extra word on Greece and Poland. Being the two nations outside of the top 10 with four sides in Europe, they both have reason to believe that 10th is a possibility. Whether they can really make it a battle with Czechia is another matter, but do keep an eye out for a potential battle for 10th spot.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Hungary Keeping Pace, Romania Disappoints

The race for 22nd continue to take some interesting twists and turns. Five of the countries involved managed to get points on the board, though none of the three with multiple sides left did a clean sweep. Yet, Croatia and Romania currently hold 21st and 22nd spots, albeit in reverse order from last time out.

Hungary will be the biggest winner from the week, with Ferencváros’ win helping them to close the gap on the two above them to 0.125 points. It is still an incredibly tough ask on them, seeing that Croatia and Romania both have two clubs, but the chance is still there.

Azerbaijan and Slovenia both claimed victories as well. With that said, anyone currently 24th and lower are in essence hoping for slipups from those holding the top 22 places. Save for Ukraine, everyone else has just one team left, which is not enough to pose a serious threat in this battle.

The five-year coefficient total needed to avoid dropping out of the top 29 is 22.632, which will be Russia’s total come season’s end. Remember, they are still banned. As things stand, everyone 24th and lower would drop a spot. Ukraine and Bulgaria have the most work to do, though the former has the advantage of having multiple teams left.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Bosnia Making Waves

The race for 33rd has kicked off now. With Moldova out of Europe already, they are left holding their breath to see whether anyone will pass them. The bad news for them? Four of the five countries below them won points last matchweek. They still hold a lead of 1.125 points over their closest challengers, but that advantage can easily evaporate.

For Ireland and Iceland – neither of whom saw their sides win – we can in essence confirm their top 33 spots once they reach 16.500 points. That will make their lead truly unassailable. The Irish are not far away from that now, thanks in part to Shelbourne’s draw.

For everyone else, however, the battle will be fascinating. Bosnia and Herzegovina was the lowest ranked nation in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking to claim a league phase victory thus far, thanks to Zrinjski’s impressive result against Lincoln Red Imps. That helped the Balkan nation go up two spots, passing Finland and Kosovo. That is rather ironic, seeing that the pair went head-to-head on matchday 1 of the UECL. That ended honours even though.

All three of those countries are set to pass Latvia and confirm their place in the top 38. It really feels like a matter of when. Bosnia and Finland just need one more draw, while Kosovo requires a win or two results. Of course, they will be striving for much more, as 33rd spot is still a realistic possibility. Armenia also won through Noah, which adds to the pressure.

This will be one very fascinating battle to keep an eye on over the next two months. The UECL league phase will play a huge role in determining who grabs what will almost surely be the final place in the top 33. It is anyone’s game at this point.

Battle for 50th: North Macedonia, Gibraltar Collect Nothing

There are no changes in the battle for 50th after matchday 1 of the Conference League. That is because both Shkëndija and Lincoln Red Imps fell in their respective games. Luxembourg and especially Montenegro breathe a sigh of relief for now. Of course, there are still five rounds left.

Gibraltar has the most work to do, as in order to pass Luxembourg, they need two wins, a win and two draws, or four draws. To do that from five games is quite the tall order, particularly when considering that Zrinjski could have been seen as a half-chance at collecting points. What was already a tall order has gotten a lot taller.

A Look at Everyone Else

For the other two nations that are not currently involved in any battles, it was the status quo for them. Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ħamrun Spartans both lost, giving Israel and Malta no points.

It is more of the same from last season for Israel, who started the term with hopes of finishing in the top 15. Those hopes dissipated very quickly, and could even fall out of the top 20. They should not need to worry about dropping further than 22nd, but still a massive disappointment from their side.

As for Malta, they are already happy with how the year has gone. Whatever Ħamrun does in the UECL has to be considered a bonus. While they are too far back to be considering 38th, they could jump ahead of the Faroe Islands into 40th spot if things go well enough.