UEFA Coefficient Analysis: League Phase Week 4

It is UEFA coefficient analysis time once again.

As we near the fifth week of league phase football across the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League, it is worth looking back at how things are shaping up in the coefficient rankings. Some battles became a lot more interesting after the last round of action.

Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the fourth week of league phase play.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

As always, we commence with the seasonal coefficient ranking, which determines the European Performance Spots (EPS). Since we are still early on in the season, there were quite a few movements.

England has now gone to top spot after claiming another six wins. It is already looking incredibly difficult to stop them, even with nine sides involved. An unbeaten week in the UCL – where they went 5-1-0 – already puts the Premier League sides in a very good position. It really does feel like one of the EPS places is theirs to lose, as we can seldom foresee another country giving them much of a challenge.

Germany, Spain, and France all moved up in the rankings as well. All three of them ended up with four victories, making it a decent week for the trio. Next week will mark the midway point of the league phases, and they will be pushing to go further up. Italy stays eighth after a 3-1-3 week. They, like France, have yet to surpass the 7.000-point mark, though they are set to do so next time. The gap between themselves and second is only 0.743, so the aim for them will be to make some ground.

Portugal and Poland also earned half of the points available to them, which were 0.800 and 1.000 respectively. That was enough for them to finish second and third in the season UEFA coefficient ranking. The Poles in particular needs to build on their excellent summer. Having all four of their clubs in the league phase is great, but it means nothing if points are not won.

Cyprus and Denmark fell off as expected despite the former having a solid return of 1.000 on the week. The Cypriots could have hope of a top two spot if they can get all three sides into the knockout rounds, though that would be quite a tough ask. The last nation to keep an eye on here is Netherlands, who has entered the top 10. After a slow start, they rattled off 1.333 points last time out, the second most behind England. With all six teams still in contention, it is now a matter of them making the most of their chances.

Heading into week five, England looks set to continue dominating, while the rest of the ‘Big 5’ keeps up their chase, alongside Poland and Portugal. Netherlands could also make a push if they can maintain a showing similar to last week.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Netherlands Comes Alive

To the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking now, where Netherlands has put some daylight between them and Portugal for sixth spot. It was not all bad news for the Iberian nation, as they also put further distance from Belgium for seventh.

After a sluggish start to the main rounds, the Dutch badly needed a week like the last one. They finally were able to get one, where four of their six sides were victorious. For context, they had just one victory in the opening three weeks in the league phase. Now they are back, and can feel good about their chances of retaining six spot.

Portugal once again earned 0.800 points, but the real concern is for Belgium, who had another two losses. Having no club in the Conference League is proving to be detrimental for them. After all, they are among the countries with the most points obtained in the UECL proper. Genk earned a draw in the Europa League, which has to be seen as a good thing. Now, it is on Union Saint-Gilloise and Club Brugge to help them in their Champions League performances.

Week by week, it is looking even more likely that the three countries that represent the best of the rest will remain in the same positions come season’s end.

Battle for Ninth: Turks Looking Unstoppable

For the second week in a row, Türkiye claimed the maximum points available to them. Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor all won to give their nation 1.200 points on the week. While Czechia picked up 1.000 point, that is not enough to keep up with their opponents.

Perhaps the most disappointing thing from a Czech perspective is the fact they have been unable to make the most of having an extra side in the league phase. They are 3-4-3 across their 10 games so far, in comparison to 6-0-2 from Türkiye. That really should not be happening, and if they fail to take ninth place at the conclusion of the term, this relatively poor start will have played quite the role.

Battle for 12th/15th: Austria Fails Miserably as Switzerland Capitalizes

The battle for 12th may be all but over, the race for 15th in the UEFA coefficient ranking is shaping up to be a thriller once more. In what is in essence a battle between five nations for 15th, things took another twist last week as Austria claimed no points. That could prove to be damaging, especially now that rivals Switzerland jumped ahead of them thanks to two victories.

Cyprus went unbeaten to earn another 1.000, allowing them to close in on the duo above them. It really does feel like it will go down to one of them, Switzerland, or Austria for 15th. Scotland and Sweden still have chances, but neither have looked convincing enough to pose a serious threat.

Norway fell to 13th, which was inevitable, with Denmark also holding firm in 14th. Neither should really be in any peril to fall outside of the top 15, but they both still have work to do. As for Poland, they finally passed the Norwegians for 12th. They and Greece are almost sure to end up in the top 12 at the end of the campaign. Speaking of the Greeks, they recovered from their utter nightmare from going pointless during the third week of league phase football. For them and the Poles, 10th place is still feasible, but will require a some more strong showings from here on in.

Places 11 to 19 can in essence be split into three or four sub-groups: Greece and Poland in one; Norway and Denmark in the next; Switzerland, Austria, and Cyprus in the third; Scotland and Sweden are somewhere between their own subgroup and the previous one mentioned. Where they will lie really depends on how the league phase pans out.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Fradi Lifts Hungary Into 22nd

We have a stunning turn of events in the battle for 22nd, as Hungary has now jumped ahead of Romania. The danger was always there, but it is still something of a shock.

The Hungarians managed to do so thanks to another Ferencváros success, combined with FCSB and CS Universitatea Craiova both failing to win. It would be a remarkable achievement if the former can hold, given they had just one club in the league phase. More and more is it looking like the race for 22nd is coming down to these two nations, plus Croatia.

Speaking of the Balkan nation, they went unbeaten as Rijeka prevailed and Dinamo Zagreb earned a result. That sees them pull further clear of the rest, with the distance between them and 23rd now sitting at 0.875 points. Although they have just eight wins on the year, the Croats have the fewest defeats with just six. That will always put them in a good spot.

From 24th to 29th, only Slovenia’s Celje managed to claim victory, as everyone else lost. It was particularly disappointing for Ukraine, who saw Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv fail to gather any points. It already puts them in a tricky position, and could soon start to see time run out on them.

Before moving on, it is worth remembering that Russia will finish the year on 22.632 points. This is something that impacts the nations from 24th to 29th. Serbia should be fine, as they just need one more draw. For everyone else, it does leave them with quite a bit of work to do. That is particularly evident for Bulgaria, who has yet to eclipse 20.000 points.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Chasing Pack Gains on Moldova

The pressure is starting to mount on Moldova in the battle for 33rd. Everyone from the chasing pack bar Bosnia grabbed a result last time out. The result is the fact that two nations are 1.000 or less from passing them for 33rd.

Those two countries are Kazakhstan and Armenia, who are the most likely to turn punish the Moldovans. There is still much work to be done, but there as to be a reason to believe. There are still 4-5 matches left in the league phase, presenting several opportunities for both to get over the line.

For Finland, they are now assured a top 38 place after KuPS’ draw with Breiðablik being enough to push them beyond Latvia, who is already eliminated. Kosovo grabbed a draw from Drita, while Bosnia’s Zrinjski was beaten. They are the only two now who have yet to pass the Baltic country and lock down 38th spot. Fortunately for the Balkan pair, just a draw is required from the remaining four guaranteed matches. If they want more than that though, the rest of the fall will have to be practically perfect.

Some really interesting things are happening in this race. Ireland and Iceland are pretty much there in securing 33rd. The question is: can Moldova hold on? It is a similar inquiry for Latvia and whether they can stay in the top 38. It is not looking favourable for them at this stage.

Battle for 50th: North Macedonia Does It, Gibraltar On the Cusp

We finally have some movement in the race for 50th in the UEFA coefficient ranking. North Macedonia’s Shkëndija claimed all three points – the first for their nation at this stage in Europe. The reward is a fourth European spot for them in 2027/28. This comes at the expense of Montenegro, who drops into the bottom five.

It truly is deserved for North Macedonia, since none of the other countries below them managed as many wins as their eight. They even jumped up four spots to 47th. To make things even better, the North Macedonians only had 0.625 points to defend this term, which means they are unlikely to be involved in this battle next season.

Gibraltar also created history through Lincoln Red Imps, who stunned Lech Poznań in what was a huge result. Now they are a win or two draws away from 50th place. They have already earned 2.333 points this season, which is their best-ever coefficient haul. If Lincoln can pull it off for them, it would be quite deserved.

For Luxembourg, they are the ones on the chopping block. With just 0.750 points earned – only worsened by Wales’ 0.333 – there would be no argument from them if they indeed fall into the bottom five. Their sides suffered 11 losses in qualifying, the most of any country. In fact, Moldova was the only other nation to have double digit losses in the summer. There will certainly be a lot of hoping from the Grand Duchy’s end.

A Look at Everyone Else

Everything remains the same for both Israel and Malta. No coefficient battles to worry about, but no points to add to their totals.

Maccabi Tel Aviv once again lost in the UEL, already jeopardizing their hopes of playing knockout football in the new year. Remarkably, Israel’s 2.875 points obtained so far already matches what they did in 2024/25. However, when including 2023/24, where they earned 8.750 points, it is a far drop-off from their side.

As for Malta, Ħamrun Spartans was again competitive in their tie, but still could not avoid defeat. There is still time to make more history, but from a coefficient standpoint, it is just a matter of increasing the five-year total to avoid slipping into a dogfight to avoid the bottom five. Malta went into the season with 1.875 points to defend, so a win or two draws would be required to not lose any points.