UEFA Coefficient Analysis: League Phase Week 7

The UEFA coefficient battles for this season are really starting to get serious, especially now some countries have dropped out.

Week seven of the league phase seldom disappointed, with multiple teams either being eliminated or guaranteeing progression from this portion of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League. That has resulted in some key changes in the coefficient rankings.

With the dust now settled, here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

Also, the coefficient totals do not include any guaranteed bonus points due to league phase ranking/qualifying for the round of 16. This will be added once the league phase of a competition is done.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

We start this analysis with the seasonal ranking, which determines the two European Performance Spots (EPS). There were not many changes here in the top 10, as Spain jumped into fifth ahead of Poland. An impressive thing to note is the fact that there are already seven countries that have reached 10.000 points. The remaining three in the current top 10 should also reach that figure between now and the end of the league phase.

Eight of the top 10 nations earned at least 1.000 points, which is also commendable. Poland and Cyprus are the exceptions, each picking up 0.750. Still, England increased their lead with another phenomenal week, going 7-1-1. They are already on 12.500 points, and are projected to earn a serious amount of bonus points. They could even reach 20.000 points by the end of February at this rate.

As mentioned in recent analyses, it is really looking like a battle for the other EPS, still held by Germany at the moment. Italy closed the gap even further after claiming 1.428 points. Only England and Greece outdid them last week, with the former having more wins than their five. It will be a fascinating watch here, given just how close the chasing pack is.

Germany and France can overall be satisfied with their week, while Spain will be left wanting a bit more. A 4-1-3 record is okay, but given the fact they are already behind, they could have used another win. Seeing that two of the Champions League teams are set to be eliminated, things could become a lot more challenging for the remaining La Liga clubs come February.

Portugal once again looked very good, and could end up enjoying a considerable amount of bonus points. Poland and Cyprus were not phenomenal, especially the former, who has lost a team. Legia Warszawa’s impending elimination from the Conference League has to be seen as a lost opportunity, and will almost surely end their hopes of an EPS place.

Here is a look at the current bonus points for league phase positioning and qualifying for the round of 16. This does not include the guaranteed 6.000 points for participating in the UCL proper. England’s 4.444 points is a remarkable number, plus they would have all nine of their sides left. Curiously, no country would have more than three direct entrants in the last 16, with only Germany, France and Türkiye having one team from each competition avoiding the knockout playoffs.

With that said, England and Italy would easily be in the best position right now, as things stand. There is a fine balance between collecting as many bonus points as possible, but also having as many teams left. Both of those two countries would have their full complement of teams in the knockout stage at the moment. Germany and France would have six of seven, while Spain would lose two teams.

A great example of this would be between Poland and Hungary. The former would have 1.375 bonus points at the moment, in comparison to the latter’s 1.437. However, the Poles have three teams in a top 24 spot to Hungary’s one. It is easy to see which situation is the more ideal one.

Going into the UECL’s exclusive matchweek, the ‘Big 5’ nations and Poland have a chance really pile on the points. Do not underestimate the importance of UEFA’s third tier club competition, as a nice amount of bonus points are up for grabs.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Portugal Continues Charge

It is really starting to look like a matter of when and not if for Portugal to claim sixth spot from the Netherlands. This UEFA coefficient battle in the top 10 of the rankings has been largely one-sided since the league phase started, and Portugal has done nothing but impress.

Comparing all three countries’ league phase records, the Portuguese quartet have gone 13-3-8, while the Dutch have only managed 9-3-23. Truly horrific numbers those. Belgium, who continues to see their chances of catching Portugal dissipate, could only muster a 6-2-10 record so far.

Three of the four Portuguese teams currently occupy a knockout berth, in comparison to two from Netherlands and one from Belgium. The numbers speak for themselves, and they seldom speak kindly for the Dutch and Belgians.

If Portugal does finish sixth, it would be thoroughly deserved, based on how the league phase has gone. They have lived up to expectations, while the Eredivisie clubs have largely failed miserably. Belgium was already in a pickle after losing two sides in qualifying, which has cost them dearly.

AZ will have the chance to claim some valuable points for Netherlands in the UECL exclusive matchweek before the UCL and UEL pick back up in January. Anything less than a win will just add further disaster for the Dutch.

Battle for Ninth: Substandard Week Sees Czechia Edge Slightly Closer

There was hardly anything to hit home about in the race for ninth spot. Türkiye and Czechia combined for a 2-1-4 record, with both nations recording a victory each. Viktoria Plzeň’s draw in Greece came as a blessing to the Czechs, who look likely to hold onto 10th.

Galatasaray and Samsunspor suffered defeats for the Turks, with the former’s reverse being the more troublesome one. Two places in the knockout rounds are confirmed for Türkiye, with one still up in the air. Galatasaray will want to lock down a top 24 spot in the UCL as soon as possible, which would aid their country in maintaining their spot.

As for Czechia, three of their four teams are currently in a knockout round position. Sparta Praha will be playing in Europe beyond February, with Viktoria Plzeň looking pretty good to join them. Slavia Praha will be out, while Sigma Olomouc, who suffered a humiliating loss in the UECL, still has their work cut out for them.

The key from here is how many teams will be participating in the knockout rounds playoffs and, especially, the last 16. That will see whether Czechia can close the gap even more. They still can believe, even if they are the ones doing the chasing.

Battle for 12th/15th: Greece Running Rampant as Austria and Scotland Draw Blanks

To the race for 15th in the UEFA coefficient ranking, where Switzerland just managed to hold on for another week. The pressure is piling up on them, though there is still some semblance of hope.

Cyprus had the same record as the Swiss, but managed to win more points due to having a lower divisor. However, if both Omonoia Nicosia and AEK Larnaca earn results in the UECL last Thursday, then we will see a new team reach the top 15, regardless of what Lausanne-Sport does. Austria and Scotland can only watch at this rate, and could even be fully eliminated before the league phase concludes.

Having already eclipsed 10.000 points, the Cypriots are full value for nearing 15th place. Do not be surprised if it becomes theirs by the end of the calendar year. While Switzerland has not been horrible – in comparison to Austria, Scotland, and the now-eliminated Sweden – they could have done a lot better.

Denmark took 13th from Norway, which is of little importance. Both of the Nordic nations will live to regret not getting a third team in a league phase, particularly the latter. Thy should be able to finish in the top 14 without too much trouble. Greece and Poland are just about locked for 11th/12th, with the order still to be determined.

Heading into next week’s games, it will be a key week for Switzerland and Cyprus, who are the primary combatants for 15th spot now. They will have to make the most of their chance, as it is very tight as we near the end of the calendar year.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Romania Just Clings On as Race Heats Up

It has been another exciting week in the race for 22nd. Countries 21 to 25 all grabbed a win, while Bulgaria kept their slim hopes of finishing in the top 29 alive.

Croatia and Romania still keep their spots in the top 22 thanks to Rijeka and FCSB. Both sides picked up home wins to grab another 0.500 points. Ferencváros won for Hungary, meaning they are still breathing down the necks of the two countries just above them. More importantly, Fradi already assured themselves a knockout round spot, with some bonus points already guaranteed.

Serbia and Ukraine also earned wins, the latter ensuring they will finish no worse than 29th. It is now a matter of whether they can reignite any hopes of 22nd. It will be a challenge, especially for Ukraine, but there is still reason to hope.

Slovenia, Azerbaijan, and Slovakia drew blanks again, while Bulgaria earned a draw through Ludogorets. Time is running out for the Bulgarians, who will need two wins from two to have any chance at progressing. Slovakia will not finish ahead of Russia once the latter’s points are given for the season. It is now a matter of whether they can hold off Bulgaria for 29th, which is still rather likely.

It is Croatia, Romania, and Hungary still battling it out for those two places in the top 22, but Serbia and Ukraine are lurking. The Hungarians and Serbs will not be in action for UECL matchday 6, which gives the rest a chance to really put further distance between themselves and those below them.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Armenia Knocks on Moldova’s Door

There is some serious pressure on Moldova now to hold onto 33rd place in the UEFA coefficient ranking. Having failed to get a team into a league phase, they look likely to miss out on 33rd, with Armenia and Kosovo breathing down their neck.

Noah gave the Armenians a huge win last Thursday, meaning a win or draw on matchday 6 will see them pass Moldova for 33rd. That could also apply with Kosovo and Drita, who despite losing their UECL matchday 5 clash, could also earn enough bonus points to pass the Moldovans.

Kazakhstan is out of this race, as Kairat will not be advancing in the UCL. Even though they can pass Moldova, it will not be enough, as it is almost a certainty that at least one of Armenia or Kosovo will finish ahead of them. Both Finland and Bosnia are a bit further behind, and risk elimination on Thursday. Both KuPS and Zrinjski need a win plus some help to advance and keep their respective countries in the hunt.

The gap between Armenia and Bosnia currently sits at 1.119, so it is far from over. With Iceland already hitting 16.500 points, they have virtually sealed a top 33 spot. It is now down to four nations for one place. It will be quite the dramatic round of football for all four countries still involved. Expect for Moldova to be passed at the end of the week.

Battle for 50th: Lincoln Red Imps Powers Gibraltar Past Luxembourg

Gibraltar has done it, with a game to spare. They climb into the top 50 of the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking, and will benefit from having four teams in Europe in 2027/28. And they have Lincoln Red Imps to thank for that.

The Red Imps’ victory over Sigma Olomouc saw Gibraltar move up four places all the way up to 48th. Of the four nations they passed, the most significant one was Luxembourg, who dropped into the bottom five.

This race is now over, with Luxembourg, Montenegro, Georgia, Wales, and San Marino being the five associations set to enter just three teams into the European club competitions in 2027/28. Five of the seven worst season coefficient haul include this quintet, making it hard to argue their place in the rankings. A big congratulations to Gibraltar, but a huge disappointment for the bottom five bar San Marino.

A Look at Everyone Else

As for everyone else, there are some more nations added to this section. Sweden is officially out of the top 15 race, seeing that both of their teams will be eliminated by the end of January. Even though Häcken claimed another point, it was just not enough for them.

Iceland is also clear in the top 33, having surpassed the 16.500 mark over five years. That came through Breiðablik, who beat direct rivals Shamrock Rovers to keep their hope of progression alive.

Speaking of Ireland, it is really split decision on their season. Getting multiple teams into the UECL proper was definitely impressive, especially considering they only had three teams competing in Europe due to Drogheda United’s exclusion. However, failing to get a win in the league phase has to be really poor.They will comfortably finish inside the top 33, but there is reason for there to be a bitter taste.

Israel and Malta both lost again, and will see their remaining sides knocked out at the conclusion of this point in their respective competitions. As for North Macedonia, the wonderful campaign continues thanks to Shkëndija. It will now be a matter of whether the Tetovo-based team can create further history and earn some bonus points for their nation in the process.