UEFA Coefficient Analysis 25/26: Qualifiers Week 4

One of the most important weeks for the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking just occurred. The second qualifying rounds of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League have now been completed. Fifty teams were eliminated from Europe, while a further 23 sides dropped down a competition.

Now that we have reached the midpoint of the European qualifiers, here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, since it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Qualifiers Week 4

Battle for 50th: Wales, Georgia Seal Their Fate

We start with the race to avoid the bottom five. Of the eight countries left in this fight, half of them will not collect any more points this term. For two of those four, they already know they will finish 52nd or lower.

Georgia and Wales will end up in the bottom five, and what is expected to be three sides in Europe come 2027/28. Perhaps the former will feel a bit aggrieved: after all, they did have three clubs in UECL Q2. However, that is simply not enough nowadays. That may have worked five or six years ago. Now? It will not be enough.

As for Wales, it has truly been a disastrous year. They are, and will be, the only country not to collect a victory in Europe this season. Even last place San Marino earned more points than them. Perhaps it goes to show that the 2024/25 season was a fluke, and that the future of Welsh football does not look promising.

Luxembourg stays alive thanks to Differdange 03. If they can at least make the playoff round of the Conference League, that will likely be enough. Regarding North Macedonia, they have been one of the best nations in this race so far. They are already guaranteed 10 more matches through Shkëndija, who is in the third qualifying round of the Champions League.

Belarus is in trouble, now that their domestic champion is out. Even if Neman Grodno can get to the last round of UECL qualifiers, they will be the underdogs in their tie. The best hope for them is for Luxembourg to lose their final team before they do.

Gibraltar still has Lincoln Red Imps left, but the likelihood of them catching the countries ranked 49th to 51st is rather low. Meanwhile, Andorra and Montenegro are out of teams for the season. The former had a record-breaking summer, earning 2.000 points. It is very likely that they will be inside the top 50 for the very first time. They would be lucky in that case, because as previously mentioned, losing all sides before Q3 is usually a death sentence in these races. Montenegro could be made to sweat a bit more, so keep an eye on that.

Heading into Q3, it is Belarus, Luxembourg, and North Macedonia who can save themselves. Andorra and Montenegro anxiously wait, while Georgia and Wales are deservedly bottom five nations.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Kazakhstan Making Serious Push

There was no significant movement in the UEFA coefficient battle as everyone evened each other out last week.

With that said, there are two countries who are particularly happy with how things went: Ireland and Kazakhstan. Just one nation of the lot is left with more than two clubs in Europe in this race – that being Ireland. Their gap to 34th is around 2.500 points, and that could increase before the end of qualifying. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, earned the most points of the lot with 0.500. This could result in them making a serious push up the rankings, as they are now on the heels of Kosovo.

Latvia, Finland, and Bosnia all picked up a draw each, which is not much. For the latter two, they are already down to one team, as their UECL sides are already out. In both of their cases, KuPS and Zrinjski dropped to the Europe League. The same can be said for Latvia and RFS: the only difference being that Riga FC is still alive and kicking after edging Dila Gori. That provides more points, and depending on how far Riga FC goes, they could help RFS push for 33rd.

Armenia, Kosovo, and the Faroe Islands still have two teams left, though both of the Faroes’ sides are in the UECL. That means there is no room for error. The other two nations have their domestic champions in the UEL, which guarantees six matches each. Getting a team in the league phase will be required though if they wish to put a serious challenge in their respective ambitions. Liechtenstein is 41st after Vaduz managed to turn their tie around, but will likely see their European run come to an end next round.

Iceland and Moldova should be disappointed with how last week went, since they both lost two teams. That could put their places in the top 33 at risk, especially with how well Ireland is doing. Moldova, in particular, is in serious trouble of having no league phase teams as both Sheriff Tiraspol and Milsami Orhei are in the UECL. At least Iceland’s Breiðablik has room for error in the UEL.

So, after the first two qualifying rounds in this UEFA coefficient race, it is Latvia and Armenia who are the biggest threat for spots 31st to 33rd. Kosovo and Kazakhstan can still challenge as well, though they need strong showings. Faroe Islands keeps their hopes of 38th alive, but is down to their last drink saloon. Finland and Bosnia could be in trouble if their league winners cannot make the UECL proper.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Hungary Closing In On 22nd

The race for places in the top 22, as well as staying in the top 29, is quickly heating up. All of the nations involved lost at least one side this week. For Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia, they lost two teams, complicating things further for them.

Azerbaijan will be happiest after this week with their 0.625 points won. They were particularly impressive in Q2, and should be quite pleased with how things are looking. Keep this up, and they will easily stay in the top 29, and could even press for 22nd.

Hungary and Ukraine also did very well, with 0.625 and 0.750 points won, respectively. The former is closing in on 22nd place, having reached 21.000 UEFA coefficient points in the five-year ranking. The Ukrainians are keeping themselves in it as well, and should not be counted out just yet.

Serbia and Romania may have both gotten 0.500 points, but are already in trouble, especially the latter. FCSB’s shocking UCL elimination requires them to win at least one more tie still. CFR Cluj partially softened the blow in the UEL, but there will need to be some improvements quickly. For Serbia, having lost two UECL teams right away is not ideal. That only piles the pressure on Partizan, who cannot afford another misstep.

Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Bulgaria were all poor this past week. The Croats lost Varaždin as they failed in holding onto their first leg advantage. That could prove costly. As for Slovenia, they were the only one not to earn a win across the return legs. That already spells trouble. Similarly, Slovakia and Bulgaria only managed 0.375 points each. That will certainly be cause for concern.

So, what will be the conclusion after the second half of qualifying in this race? That will be the question to answer for all nine nations here. Some have started off well, while others need to pick up the pace.

Battle for 12th/15th: Status Quo Remains

To everyone’s favourite battle – the one for top 12/top 15. This was a great week for most of the countries involved, as four of them ended up with a perfect record.

Poland and Sweden have already eclipsed 2.500 points on the season, while Cyprus is at 2.000. Denmark is not far behind on 1.625 match points earned. Norway and Austria also grabbed two wins and a draw, while Israel did the same (although they also had a loss).

Greece is the second highest ranked nation to lose a team, as Aris Thessaloniki failed to recover from their first leg loss. They and Switzerland have had the worst start so far, meaning the two will need to pick things up fast. Meanwhile, Scotland is already under pressure despite Rangers securing at Europa League football come September. Hibernian’s loss is arguably more damaging, as they now need to pass two rounds of UECL qualifying.

There are multiple direct clashes in the third qualifying round, which will shake things up in these battles considerably. Pay particular attention to the UECL, where several of these meetings will occur there. Remember, these are winner-take-all ties, so the next two weeks will tell us a lot about the nations involved.

Battle for Ninth: Czechs Make Partial Recovery

It was a better showing from the Czech teams in the battle for ninth spot. Wins from Viktoria Plzeň and Sparta Praha were key as the pair progressed in their ties. Baník Ostrava’s defeat saw them drop to the Conference League, which will undoubtedly increase the pressure on them.

Türkiye is still in the better position for now. İstanbul Başakşehir won easily, while Beşiktaş lost once more. Like Baník, that results in them dropping to the UECL.  Holding a 3.200-point advantage, the Turks will want to have this buffer going into the league phase. To do so, they will need both of their now-UECL teams to do their part throughout August.

The next four weeks could truly decide this battle, seeing that both countries have two teams in the UECL. There are no second chances after elimination there. For now, keep an eye on the trio there.

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Netherlands and Portugal Recover, Belgian Nightmare

The contrast to last week could not be any more stark for the three nations in the race for places six and seven. Netherlands and Portugal collected two wins each, while Belgium saw one team get eliminated from Europe, and the other fall out of the Europa League.

At this stage, there are two important requirements for Belgium: Anderlecht makes the UECL proper, and Santa Clara gets does not. The former in particular is vital if they wish to challenge Portugal for seventh. They are not out of it quite yet, as they are only 2.000 points behind. But, lose another team before the league phase, and disaster will strike.

The Dutch and Portuguese teams just need to keep their composure at this rate. So long as Utrecht and AZ (Netherlands), as well as Sporting Braga and Santa Clara (Portugal) make the league phase, the will be in good shape. Of course, the Portuguese need as many points as possible, so Braga ending up in the UEL would be more ideal.

A Look at Everyone Else

We have a new team in this section, as Northern Ireland is no longer in danger of falling into the bottom five.

Thanks to Linfield and Larne, who both advanced in the Conference League, NI was able to pass both Andorra and Montenegro into 46th spot. There are only five countries below them that still have teams left, but it is a  virtually zero percent chance that San Marino would accomplish that.

The four countries directly above NI were all in action, with Albania being the happiest. Vllaznia and Egnatia advanced in the UECL, drawing their nation close to moving up the standings. Whether either of them will be in the competition’s league phase is another matter.

Malta, Estonia, and Lithuania are all down to just one team, having each dropped a spot as well. Of the trio, only Ħamrun Spartans still has four matches guaranteed. Levadia and Kauno Žalgiris are not as fortunate, as they are in win-or-go-home situations.