It is time for another UEFA coefficient analysis.

The second legs in the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League third qualifying rounds seldom disappointed. Another 30 teams were eliminated from Europe, which makes things a lot more interesting from a coefficient perspective.

After six weeks of qualifying round play, here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, since it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Qualifiers Week 6

Battle for 50th: Belarus, Luxembourg Stay Alive

The race for 50th in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking saw Belarus and Luxembourg live to see another day. Their teams – Neman Grodno and Differdange 03, respectively – pulled through in the Conference League. The result? Both nations have passed Montenegro.

It is looking increasingly likely that the Montenegrins, who did not have a team get beyond Q2, will end up in the bottom five. After all, Shkëndija needs just one league phase victory have North Macedonia pass them.

Gibraltar, like North Macedonia, will have a team in the league phase after Lincoln Red Imps’ success on penalties. A couple of main round wins should take them out of the bottom five, likely at the expense of Belarus or Luxembourg.

Heading into the playoff round, North Macedonia is still in striking distance, while Gibraltar has hope again. It is still a nervous follow for those of Belarusian and Luxembourgish persuasion.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Ireland In With a Chance, Finland and Bosnia Celebrate

The battle for 33rd and 38th has now become more clear-cut after six weeks of qualifying round footy. Six of the nations here drew blanks, half of whom saw their final side(s) get knocked out as well.

Finland and Bosnia secured league phase spots for their respective teams, joining Kazakhstan in that respect. It means this battle will certainly continue beyond the playoff round. Although Ireland and Latvia both have two teams left, they are on the chopping block alongside everyone else.

Ireland and Iceland have done a great job this summer of increasing the gap on the chasing pack. They are looking like locks for the top 33. Moldova, however, lost their last two clubs, meaning their 33rd spot is in grave danger. Latvia leads the charge, sitting 2.125 points back. All six countries below them could make a run at them. They should be able to finish at least 38th, but this was a horror year.

Faroe Islands and Liechtenstein exit Europe for the season, earning 1.750 and 1.000 points respectively. It will have to be seen as an opportunity lost for the Faroes, while the microstate can be happy that Vaduz got past a round.

The pressure intensifies heading into the playoff round, as Ireland, Latvia, Armenia, and Kosovo are in must-win games. The rest will have the chance to build on their lead or make ground. Whatever the situation is, the next stage provides a very interesting change.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Hungary Surges, Trio in Danger 

There has been quite the turn of events in the race for 22nd and 29th in the UEFA coefficient ranking. There nations are down to one team, while only one is assured two teams in the league phase.

Hungary and Bulgaria jumped up one spot in the rankings, leaping past Romania and Russia, respectively. Bulgaria has had a steady season, and their reward is having three teams in the playoff rounds. If they end up with at least two sides in the league phase, they could be a threat.

Ironically, despite Hungary going ahead of Romania, it is the latter who is the happier one. They also have three clubs remaining, and can believe in seeing all of them get past the last round of qualification. Watch out for CFR Cluj and CS Universitatea Craiova in particular, who could catapult their country into 22nd.

All three of Serbia, Slovakia, and Azerbaijan are down to their domestic champions. Their hopes of finishing in the top 22 are not looking good. It is the same story as recent years for the trio, who will have to hope their sole surviving club can wreak some havoc come September.

Ukraine also has three teams left, but could end up going down to one two weeks from now. In comparisons, Croatia already will be assured two sides. Shakhtar Donetsk falling from the Europa League could work in Ukraine’s favour, or it could plague them further. Time will tell.

Slovenia is in the most unique position. With two clubs making the playoffs, they could see both make the league phase, or neither. They are the only country in this battle to not get be assured of a group phase spot. So, the pressure is on them.

Overall, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria are in a great spot. Slovenia, Hungary, and Ukraine will look to have multiple league phase teams, while Serbia, Slovakia, and Azerbaijan are already in trouble.

Battle for 12th/15th: Danish Dominance, Poland Recovers

Many of the nations involved in the battle for 12th to 15th had a much better showing this time around. That cannot be said for all of them though.

Austria and Scotland both failed to register a win this week. Both have now lost a team, but head into the final weeks of qualifying with a chance at four teams in the league phase. That would significantly boost their chances at at top 15.

Sweden and Israel are well and truly out of the race now. The latter have now lost three sides, and the former could very well join them come the conclusion of the playoff round. It has to be seen as a massive disappointment, particularly for the Swedes, who had such a wonderful summer. They are now in essence trying to collect as many points as possible to commence next term.

Greece recovered well, picking up two wins and securing two more league phase spots. Norway, meanwhile, also ensured themselves one more spot in the draw at the end of August. Poland is still in for a full complement of clubs, and could even see their quartet end up in the UECL proper. It could truly rain points for them in that case. Top 15 is almost a certainty, but 12th? That would look very favourable for them.

Switzerland had a solid week despite losing Lugano. They badly need at least one of Servette or Lausanne-Sport to step up though, as heading to the group phase with just two teams will not cut it in their case. After all, Cyprus still has three sides left, two of which have already wrapped up a place in the league phase. If Omonoia Nicosia can make it three, they will certainly have a shot at 15th.

Denmark’s Brøndby might have just had the greatest recovery of any team in Europe this season. That could be the difference for their country in the battle for top 15. After Midtjylland secured a spot in the main rounds, it is now up to the capital club to give the Danes a fighting chance at finally finishing 15th or higher once again.

So, heading to the final round of qualification, look out for how the countries involved in this battle do. One is already out, but a couple more could join them in two weeks’ time.

Battle for Ninth: Turks Add to Advantage

The importance of progressing from the UCL third qualifying round (non-champions path) was on full display this week in the battle for ninth. Türkiye will now have two extra games in qualifying, and a shot at 1.200 bonus points. Czechia, meanwhile, loses out on that chance.

While Fenerbahçe overcame their first leg deficit, Viktoria Plzeň was unable to do the same. They drop to the Europa League proper, and will not feature again until the end of September. That was the last thing the Czechs needed, as their Turkish rivals have a chance to really pull clear before the league phase.

There is only one saving grace now for Czechia: both Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha make the UECL league phase. This is vital, especially if Türkiye’s pair manage to do so. The next two weeks will prove to be decisive in that regard. This UEFA coefficient race could well and truly be over before September starts.

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Portugal Looking Strong

Another week in the race for sixth/seventh in the UEFA coefficient ranking shows us that Portugal is showing some serious intent. They have by far the best record of the three nations here, and could make things interesting for the Dutch.

Although Santa Clara failed to win on Thursday, Portugal can still be happy with how things went. After all, they will have three teams in playoff round football. Netherlands and Belgium will only have two.

The Belgians will need Club Brugge and Anderlecht in particular to prevail in their playoff rounds ties, especially the latter. If they go down to three teams before the league phase, any hopes of seventh will be virtually gone.

Netherlands can still be happy about the last week, though losing Feyenoord in UCL qualifying definitely stings. Even if they did not make the competition’s main rounds, losing out on the two extra matches is not ideal.

A Look at Everyone Else

Looking at the nations not involved in a UEFA coefficient battle at the moment, and there are two that are eliminated for the season. Estonia and Lithuania can no longer add points after FCI Levadia Tallinn and Kauno Žalgiris were knocked out. Neither country should be satisfied with their results, especially Lithuania, who collected just 1.125 points and three wins.

France will have just one team competing in the playoff rounds after OGC Nice’s UCL loss. Linfield turned things around and is Northern Ireland’s final team left. As for Albania, Malta, and San Marino, they are still in the running to have a team reach the UECL proper for the very first time. In fact, the latter two would be represented in a European group phase for the very first time. First, Ħamrun Spartans and Virtus will have to successfully negotiate the playoff round.