The summer is coming to a fast end, and the UEFA coefficient points earned during the two months will be pivotal as we transition into the fall.

The first legs of the playoff round in the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League were this week. In particular, the latter competition’s results are key in shaping the season for the nations still involved. We are one step closer to determining the full list of clubs playing in the league phase in the autumn. But, there is still one week left, with many twists and turns possible.

This is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the seventh week of qualifying round play.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Qualifiers Week 7

Battle for 50th: Andorra Almost There, Montenegro in Serious Trouble

We start with the battle for 50th, where the pressure intensifies for some of the nations involved. Andorra, who did not see a team get past the second qualifying round, is on the precipice of having four clubs in Europe for the first time ever. Belarus and especially Luxembourg’s losses makes things difficult for both.

Shkëndija’s win in the Europa League added another 0.250 UEFA coefficient points for North Macedonia, who is on the cusp of sending Montenegro into the bottom five. Of course, the latter nation cannot earn anything else this term, so they would be completed helpless.

The Tetovo-based club is already assured league phase football, something neither Belarus nor Luxembourg can claim. Even if both Neman Grodno and Differdange 03 fail to make the league phase, earning a result next week is a must. With that said, both teams are still in their respective ties, giving the two countries hope. Should either (or both) get knocked out, Andorra will secure a top 50 place. Only four nations currently below the microstate can realistically catch them. As such, Andorran football fans will want Neman and/or Differdange to not win their deciding match.

Lincoln Red Imps lost in the UEL as expected, but Gibraltar should seldom worry. Six league phase games in the UECL will give them a chance to pass many of the countries above them.

Going into next week’s deciders, watch Neman and Differdange’s games, as well as Shkëndija’s. Those three results will provide much talking points in the next analysis.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Ireland, Armenia Impress, Latvia In Danger

The race for places 33rd through 39th in the UEFA coefficient rankings saw four countries pick up wins, while three went pointless. Ireland and Armenia were the biggest winners, while Latvia is under siege.

Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers’ victories send Ireland in dreamland, as they could be the lowest ranked nation with multiple teams in the league phase. That looks quite likely right now, as Latvia had the exact opposite results. RFS and Riga FC failed to earn a result in their respective away games, and suddenly, the Baltic nation could enter the league phase with zero teams.

Iceland, Armenia, and Kosovo all picked up wins in what are do-or-die ties for them in the UECL. Noah’s 4-1 success leaves Armenia in a very good position – so much so, they jumped up to 34th spot. Still, there are (at least) 90 more minutes to be played, so far from a certainty.

Finland, Bosnia, and Kazakhstan all secured league phase places already, so their results are less significant for now. However, the more points that can be won, the better.

Ahead of next week’s second legs, the most important matches are those involving clubs from Ireland, Iceland, Armenia, Latvia, and Kosovo. Any or all of them could be left without teams heading into the league phase. Keep a close eye on those results, as this battle heats up.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Hungary, Romania With Upper Hand

Three countries fired blanks this week in the race for 22nd/29th. At this point, failing to pick up results is practically a death knell, because it means less teams making the main round.

Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, and Azerbaijan all had a win each. That is a positive start, but as is the case for most, nothing is settled yet. Of course, the Croats already have two teams in the league phase, something no one else can claim. Romania looks most likely to join them, despite CFR Cluj’s heavy beating. CS Universitatea Craiova grabbed a stunning away win, and could very well secure a maiden group phase spot. If they do, look out for the Romanians.

UCL bonus points are still available for Hungary, Serbia, and Azerbaijan. The latter in particular looks the most likely to benefit from this thanks to Qarabağ beating rivals Ferencváros.

Serbia, Slovakia, and Bulgaria all failed to earn UEFA coefficient points this week. The punishment for the Serbs saw them drop out of the top 22, and into 24th spot. Seeing they are already down to one team – alongside Slovakia – Crvena zvezda (and Slovan Bratislava) will need to pick up the slack, and quite quickly. Otherwise, they will find themselves out of the race for 22nd before the midpoint of the league phase.

Ukraine is also in trouble, as Shakhtar Donetsk only managed a draw in their playoff round match. Losing them would be a nightmare scenario for Ukrainian football, and would definitely seal their fate with regards to a top 22 spot. At least they have a league phase berth already locked up through Dynamo Kyiv.

The same cannot be said for Slovenia, who in essence is relying on Celje to save them. Olimpija Ljubljana was defeated by three goals at home, leaving them with a mountain to climb. After such a great 2024/25 season, losing all their teams at the end of qualifying would have to be seen as a massive failure.

The final week of qualifiers will tell us a lot about this battle. Keep an eye on basically everyone, bar Croatia. Up to five other countries could join them with having multiple league phase places, but it is a matter of finding out which ones will.

Battle for 12th/15th: Poland In Solid Position, Austria and Scotland Wobble

What a fascinating week in the race for the top 12/15. As always, there were some intriguing results, which are worth discussing.

Once again, the biggest winner is Poland. Although Lech Poznań did lose heavily, they are set to enter the UECL proper. The more important thing is that the three teams currently in the UECL all won, which they did. That results in the Poles in position to be the lowest ranked country with all of their teams a group phase. If that happens, top 12 is basically a given, and even a top 10 spot would not be out of the question.

Norway, Denmark, and Sweden all earned 0.500 points in the week. The Nordic trio are all in contention for another strong season. The Swedes needed BK Häcken to make the UECL proper. That is suddenly looking very likely. It will give them a shot in battling for the top 15. As for Norway, they need at least three teams to remain in a good spot for the fall. Thanks to Rosenborg’s win, there is certainly reason for hope. It is now a matter of holding on.

Switzerland, like Denmark and Sweden, went unbeaten. That is a positive sign, with everything hanging in the balance. Like Norway, the Swiss badly need a third league phase spot confirmed. Servette and Lausanne-Sport are the ones responsible for making that a possibility. Both picked up good results in what are difficult ties. It is now a question of whether they can truly work their magic and put their country in a better position.

Austria is also trying to claim three league phase spots minimum. Wolfsberg’s win goes a long way in helping with that. But, it was only a 2-1 home win over direct rival Omonoia Nicosia of Cyprus. That result in particular will be key, as if they cannot hold on, trouble will ensue. Rapid Wien lost their game, but they still have a chance to recover.

Greece had a decent week, though PAOK’s loss will hurt. Everything really depends on AEK Athens, as if they can get past Anderlecht, the Greeks will be favourites for top 12, and could even make a push for 10th place. Meanwhile, Scotland and Cyprus both disappointed. Neither are in positions of absolute peril, but having an extra side in the league phase will be very important in this battle. As a result, Hibernian and Omonoia will need to come up big for their respective countries.

So, heading into next week’s second legs, they key will be having at least four out of five, or three out of four league phase teams. Any nation who does so will have a considerable advantage over their competitors. Only Sweden cannot do so, but they will be well and truly in it if no one else is able to step up.

Battle for Ninth: Tense Stalemate Leads to Huge Week

Things have suddenly intensified in the race for ninth spot. Looking at the point totals from the week, it was an equal 0.200 points for both of Türkiye and Czechia. However, looking a little deeper, and the Czechs might be the happier of the two.

Sparta Praha’s UECL win pushes Czechia closer to having four sides in the league phase. While Baník Ostrava did lose, they do have the home leg coming up, giving a chance at redemption. In comparison, neither of Türkiye’s UECL teams could earn a win. Beşiktaş drew and İstanbul Başakşehir faltered, the latter doing so at home. That adds some fascinating scenarios heading into next week.

Even if Fenerbahçe makes the Champions League proper, that would be less effective if Türkiye ends up with just three teams. In fact, it spells danger. Their lead of 3.300 UEFA coefficient points could start to quickly dissipate in this case. Of course, nothing is settled yet, but things may take a turn for the worse for either country if they cannot secure at least four league phase places.

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Hope For Belgium?

A few weeks ago, Belgium took a serious blow in their hope for seventh spot. Now, they might have reason to believe again.

That is because Santa Clara lost their home leg in the UECL playoff round. This is far from ideal, and if they fail to turn things around, sixth spot looks basically impossible. However, that might end up being the least of their worries.

Belgium badly needs Anderlecht to make the UECL proper. After drawing their home leg, they face a difficult away trip to Greece. It is simple: should they progress and Santa Clara does not, Belgium will be well and truly back in it for seventh spot. Add potential bonus points should one of Benfica or Club Brugge fail to reach the UCL proper, and we could see a situation where Belgium is less than a point back going into the main rounds.

Netherlands, meanwhile, is sitting back and enjoying this. While Feyenoord failed to qualify for the UCL playoff round, the Dutch look very likely to have all six of their teams in a league phase. If that happens, that could be game, set, match for sixth. There will be many Dutch fans hoping for Santa Clara to get knocked out next week.

A Look at Everyone Else

There are 10 nations not involved in a five-year UEFA coefficient battle as things stand. For Malta, Albania, Northern Ireland, and San Marino, it is a matter of trying to have a league phase spot. Israel is trying to claim as many points as they can for future years, having lost out on the battle for 15th. Meanwhile, the ‘Big Five’ leagues will be pushing for the European Performance Spots (EPS). This will be covered once the league phase starts.

England, Italy, and Spain all saw wins from their UECL representatives, while France’s Strasbourg drew at home. As for Germany, Mainz fell to defeat in Norway. Losing the Conference League team is not a guaranteed disaster, but makes things more challenging for a top two finish in the seasonal ranking. So, Strasbourg and especially Mainz have work to do.

Albania and Northern Ireland saw their teams lose, and now league phase football looks unfavourable for both.

Ħamrun Spartans grabbed a win that takes them one step closer to being Malta’s first-ever group phase team. They still have to defend their lead in Latvia, but it is a great result. Virtus, meanwhile, led in Iceland. Sadly for them, they ultimately lost the match. There is still more than enough reason for hope though, as they host the decider. This was the scenario they were in last round, where they lost by one goal on the road, only to turn things around at home. Like Malta, San Marino is hoping for a maiden group phase showing. The team from Acquaviva is their only hope now.