UEFA Coefficient Analysis 25/26: Qualifiers Week 8

The qualifying rounds concluded this past week, with many twists and turns. Now that the 108 teams involved in the league phases are now known, this week’s UEFA coefficient analysis will see many changes from the previous weeks.

This is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the final week of qualifiers.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Qualifiers Week 8

Battle for 50th: Andorra and Belarus Escape

Things in the race for 50th place in the UEFA coefficient ranking have become much clearer quite quickly. All four nations involved in the playoff round second legs saw their teams lose. The result was two of them being knocked out of Europe altogether.

Belarus did just enough to claim a spot in the top 50. They will finish ahead of Luxembourg due to having won more points this summer. That could prove to be pivotal, as while the latter nation is somewhat safe for now, it is out of their hands. They will be hoping for Lincoln Rem Imps to lose as often as possible in the UECL proper.

As a result of last week’s games, Andorra has officially claimed a top 50 place, and will have four European places for the very first time come 2027/28. It is a remarkable achievement for the microstate, especially considering they lost all their teams in Q2. It is now a matter of seeing whether they can improve upon their showing next summer.

North Macedonia remains 51st for now after Shkëndija fell in the Europa League. They should fear not though, as Ballistët just need a draw in the UECL proper to lift the country into the top 50. They will have six chances to achieve this, so there is certainly the chance.

Montenegro is on the chopping block, as one Shkëndija draw will see them drop into the bottom five. Gibraltar is still in the running, with Lincoln Red Imps needing to collect at least 1.333 points – equivalent to two wins, a win and two draws, or four draws – in order for them to pass both Luxembourg and Montenegro. Should both Shkëndija and Lincoln do what is required, then both North Macedonia and Gibraltar will enter the top 50 at the expense of Luxembourg and Montenegro. This will be worth the following over the next few months.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Irish Joy, Latvian Disaster

The race for 33rd and 38th is looking rather straightforward heading into the league phase. Ireland is clear of this battle after managing to get two clubs into the UECL proper. Iceland is also in a very good spot due to Breiðablik got through the qualifiers for the second time in three years. Another win will see them join Ireland on 16.000 points. Those two places in the top 33 are all but locked down. It is Moldova’s spot which is up for grabs.

Kazakhstan made the biggest single-week leap in the rankings this term, jumping up to 34th place. Kairat Almaty making the UCL main rounds brought 1.500 bonus points – as many points as Moldova managed to claim this term. Two wins and a draw will see them into 33rd place. They will certainly fancy their chances of grabbing the requisite points, despite the massive challenge ahead.

Latvia lost their remaining two teams, even though they earned 0.375 points last week. It has to be seen as a massive disappointment for the Baltic nation, which will likely depart the top 38. Finland just needs a win (or two draws) to pass them, while both Kosovo and Bosnia require at least a win and a draw (or three stalemates). All of those are feasible, leaving the Latvians set to finish outside of the top 38 for the first time since 2020/21.

For everyone else, the hope will be to make the knockout rounds of the UECL. Outside of Finland, all other nations involved in this race collected points last week. Now the match points double for the main rounds. For the exception of Kazakhstan, all of the countries have their teams in the UECL league phase. The aim will certainly be to qualify for the knockout rounds, which could be enough to steal 33rd from Moldova.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Romania and Ukraine Step Up

There is a lot that was decided in the battle for 22nd/29th in the UEFA coefficient ranking. Of the nine countries, three of them will enter the league phase with two teams. Expect those three to be the ones in contention for 22nd.

Romania, Croatia, and Ukraine are the three with multiple sides left. As such, they have the upper hand. Romania in particular had an excellent summer, earning 11 wins. It could have even been three teams in the league phase, but CFR Cluj crashed out of the UECL. Still, they will be the happiest of the lot, having collected the most match points of the nine nations.

With Ukraine’s two biggest teams left, they should also fancy their chances on closing the gap on Romania and Croatia, who currently occupy 21st and 22nd. They are less than 2.500 points back, and can make headway in overturning the deficit. Whether Croatia can hold on is another matter. Even though they have multiple group phase teams for the first time in five years, their qualifying round performances were hardly impressive. They earned the fewest points of the countries around them.

For everyone else, it will once again be a matter of what could have been. Slovenia could have lost all their clubs, but fortunately for them, Celje did enough to advance once more. They, along with Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria, will just hope to avoid dropping to 30th. Besides that, it will be building the coefficient as much as they can. Of course, anything can happen, which could put them back in the running for 22nd. However, that looks increasingly unlikely to transpire.

Over the next few months, keep a close eye on Romania, Croatia, and Ukraine, as they are the favourites now to battle it out for 22nd place. For everyone else, the hope is a collapse from the aforementioned trio, and to try and stay alive in the race.

Battle for 12th/15th: Greece and Poland Looking Good, Norway Falters

To everyone’s favourite battle, the one for top 12/top 15. The playoff round served us some incredible results, several of which will be reference matches for the season. Two direct duels occurred in the UECL playoff round, and gives us much to discuss.

Starting with the winners of the round, Poland, Greece, and Cyprus can celebrate. Realistically, the first two have locked down a top 15 place, and are likely the pair to finish at least 12th. In fact, the Poles have all their teams left, the lowest ranked nation to do so. This could well and truly be a record-breaking year for them, and could even see both them and Greece compete for a top 10 place.

Greece has four sides in the group phase for the second time in three years. That will make them worth the watch. As for Cyprus, who has well and truly revived their hopes of a top 15 place, they have three clubs in this stage for the second season running. Add the UCL bonus points from Paphos, and they are in a wonderful position heading into the autumn.

For everyone else, it was a massive opportunity lost. Norway was the biggest loser of the bunch, as they saw two teams get knocked out. They are already down to two sides, and even though Bodø/Glimt reached the UCL league phase, it is hard to see them and Brann doing enough. It is not out of the question that the Norwegians drop out of the top 15 altogether.

Denmark, Austria, Switzerland, and Scotland all lost a team in the playoff round. The quartet will live to regret that. Having four out of five/three out of four sides in the league phase is so important in obtaining an upper hand. None of them will have that now. This group will likely battle it out for 15th alongside Norway, Cyprus, and Sweden.

The Swedes will be relieved to still be in this battle. Häcken’s elimination of CFR Cluj keeps them in the running, especially given the others’ failure. They still had an excellent summer with 14 wins and 4.000 points collected. It is worth keeping an eye on the Swedes over the next few months.

So, heading into the league phase, Greece and Poland are well clear and could even challenge for a top 10 finish. Everyone else will be hoping for one of the final three spots in the top 15. Anything can happen at this stage, which makes it very worth the watch.

Battle for Ninth: Disastrous Week Edges Czechia’s Way

What a turn of events in the battle for ninth. Suddenly, Türkiye is down to just three teams, while Czechia also saw one of their clubs get knocked out. While the Turks did pick up a meagre 0.100 points, it is the Czechs who are left the happier one in this case.

With how the qualifiers concluded for the pair, it will be crucial for both that they get as many teams in the knockout rounds as possible. Türkiye will realistically need all three of their teams to do so, as anything less than that will see their ninth spot under duress. One or even both of these two may have to watch behind them with fear as there are two countries who could give them a more than decent chase for 10th, or even ninth.

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Netherlands Running Clear, Second Belgian Blow

Netherlands had what was another very enjoyable week among the countries battling for sixth and seventh spots. Not only do they have all of their teams in a league phase, but Portugal lost a team. Even with the bonus points earned by Benfica, it has to feel like a big win for the Dutch.

Belgium lost a second team through Anderlecht’s elimination in the UECL. Although Club Brugge and Genk both did their jobs, claiming seventh has become much more challenging for the Belgians. The aim from here will likely be to grab as many points as possible. After all, they start next term in sixth spot for now. They do not have many points to defend, but the three teams left have it all to do now.

Portugal will be left disappointed, as they missed out on a glorious chance to have all their teams in a league phase again. That could prove decisive here, not only in their hopes for sixth place, but even holding onto seventh. It is imperative that their four sides get past the league phase, otherwise, disaster could strike.

A Look at Everyone Else

Looking at the other nations not involved in a five-year UEFA coefficient battle, Malta moved up a spot after Ħamrun Spartans became the first club from their country to qualify for a European group phase. It is a truly remarkable moment for the country, and could possibly use this opportunity to build their coefficient for next season.

Israel dropped a place due to Maccabi Tel Aviv’s defeat. Still, the side will compete in the Europa League proper during the fall. While an 8-5-5 record in qualifying is rather decent, Israeli football once again failed to provide multiple league phase teams. All three of Albania, Northern Ireland, and San Marino saw their continental seasons end as their final clubs fell in the UECL playoff round. The Albanians in particular will have reason to be pleased with the 2.250 points collected this season.

The ‘Big Five’ leagues all saw their UECL representatives win last week, meaning they will head to the league phase with their full complement of clubs. Of course, the European Performance Spots are the goal for the quintet, and will only have a couple other countries in contention for the coveted extra UCL spots. Things will pick up in that race once the next stage starts in mid-September.