The UEFA coefficient rankings have become much clearer following the round of 16 return legs back in March. Eleven nations are left with teams heading into the quarterfinal stage of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League.

As we head into the last eight, here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis, looking back at last round’s action.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

The seasonal UEFA coefficient ranking has become very clear after last round. We now know that England will get a spot (though that was always likely for quite sometime), with Spain the overwhelming favourites to also benefit.

Four wins each from England and Spain last time out saw them put daylight between themselves and Italy. Germany can still mathematically finish in the top two and claim a European Performance Spot, but that will not be happening.

It is in essence a battle between Spain and Italy for the other EPS. With that said, his battle swung heavily in the former’s favour after Athletic Club overcame a first leg deficit to knock out AS Roma in the UEL. Expect that to be the difference between these two nations. That was the only team Italy lost last round, and it is a costly one too.

Other changes in the top 10 of the seasonal ranking saw Germany and France jump ahead of Portugal and Belgium, respectively.

Going into the quarterfinals, the Spanish and Italian teams are the ones to watch. If the Serie A is to earn a fifth UCL spot for the second year running, they will have to be virtually perfect from here onward. Anything less, and Spain will join England with that honour.

UEFA Coefficient: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Ninth: Czechia Snatches It

Onto the five-year UEFA coefficient rankings, and most of these battles have been wrapped up. Starting with the race for ninth, and Czechia just managed to hold off Türkiye in the end. Viktoria Plzeň grabbed a result in Italy, but were still eliminated. However, they were saved by Rangers.

The Scottish side was taken to penalties by Fenerbahçe after losing on the night. Nevertheless, the Glaswegian outfit held their nerve in the shootout to progress. That ultimately put the final nail in the coffin for Fener and Turkish football, as they lose out on ninth spot. It has to be seen as a massive disappointment for the Turks and a huge opportunity lost.

This means that for the 2026/27 European season, Czechia will have at least three teams in a league phase. For Türkiye, that number is just two, with their league runner-up needing to get past at least one round of qualifying.

Battle for 15th: Polish Polonaise, Sombre Swiss, Depleted Danes

To everyone’s favourite battle – the race for 15th. Pretty much everything is wrapped up here as well. We now know who are the countries that will finish in the top 15, and who will miss out.

Despite heading into the return leg in 15th spot, Denmark was passed by Poland as the latter saw both Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia Białystok advanace. As for FC København, they fell to Chelsea. Earning a total of 0.750 points, it was enough for the Poles to complete their incredible season with a top 15 finish. The Danes, as well as Switzerland – who also lost their final team – end the season 16th and 17th. Both will have seen this as a massive opportunity lost, and for good reason.

There is still something to fight from here on in for Austria, Scotland, and Poland. It is now just a matter of who will finish 13th/14th. The benefit for the two countries ranked 13th and 14th is they will be guaranteed a UEL league phase spot for their domestic champion. That is still significant, and while the Poles have it all to do, they have already shown this season that they have been a force to be reckoned with.

Battle for 33rd: Iceland Holds On

The battle for 33rd in the UEFA coefficient ranking is also decided, and it went down to the wire. In the end, Borac Banja Luka could not get past Rapid Wien, losing in extra time.

The result of this is that Iceland earns a guaranteed place in Europa League qualifying for the 2026/27 season. The Besta deild karla campaign just started, with the clubs involved now knowing that winning their cup will result in a Europa League place. It was a thrilling battle, which went longer than it has ever gone.

Bosnia will have to rely on UECL titleholder rebalancing at the conclusion of the 2025/26 term to know whether their cup winner will enter UEL qualifying.

A Look at Everyone Else

Looking at the other nations, only two of them have teams left. Remarkably, countries 6-10 in the ranking do not a club left in Europe. Netherlands, Portugal, and Belgium all lost their final teams.

As noted in a previous UEFA coefficient analysis, the trio will head into the 2025/26 season in interesting positions. The Dutch will start with a lead of at least 5.000 points over Portugal, who will still have to nervously watch below them, as Belgium is less than 3.000 points behind. Seventh spot is within reach for the Belgians, and if they have all their teams in a league phase for the third season running, things could get interesting.

Beyond them, Cyprus and Romania had their final games of the season as well. The former in particular had a wonderful term, surpassing 10.000 points. If they build on that for next campaign, they could even do a Poland and fight their way into the top 15.

As for Romania, they will start the 2025/26 season just half a point outside of the top 22. While FCSB did much of the work this time around, they will require more help next summer. We saw this term just how important it is to have at least two teams in the league phase for this battle, something they will have to improve upon.

Sweden and Slovenia are the lowest ranked nations left with a team in Europe. The pair have had a phenomenal year, and can be quite happy with where they are heading into 2025/26. The Swedes could be looking a top 15 place soon, while Slovenia is well and truly in the running for a top 22 spot.