The final UEFA coefficient analysis of the league phase is ahead after the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League wrapped up their inaugural league phases last week. The knockout round playoffs are near, giving us plenty to dive into.

Where do the countries stand following the league phase? Here is our coefficient analysis following the last round of league phase play.

UEFA Coefficient: Seasonal Battle

The last matchday of the UCL and UEL league phase gave us much to discuss in the race for the two European Performance Spots. England is well and truly ahead, with Italy and Spain in the thick of it for the other spot.

Earning a remarkable 8.928 bonus points so far, England is well clear of the others in this race. Five more wins saw them close the league phase in fine form. With all of their teams left in Europe – six of which are already in the last 16 – the Premier League is set to benefit from an EPS.

At this point, it looks pretty likely that Italy and Spain will battle it out for the other extra Champions League place. Both of them have lost just one team, making this a fairly even race. The knockout round playoffs and round of 16 will tell us a lot here.

Portugal, Germany, France, and Belgium are quite far back, and will need strong performances in the next stage if they are to reignite any hope of an EPS. It is important to note that France will lose a team, since Brest and PSG will face each other in the knockout playoffs. As for Belgium, they, along with England, have all their teams left in Europe. If this remains the case past the knockout playoffs, do not count them out.

Here are the number of teams left in Europe per nation, including the number of direct entrants in the last 16.

It is no coincidence that England, Spain, and Italy, the top three in the seasonal ranking, have the most teams left. That is always key at this stage of the season. It will be quite hard to catch them, as any country with less than four teams left have virtually no chance.

If Manchester City beats Real Madrid in the knockout round playoffs, England will almost surely wrap up an EPS. However, if they do not, that opens the door for both Italy and Spain.

UEFA Coefficient: Five-Year Battles

Battle for Ninth: Türkiye Closing In

Things are getting very tight in the race for ninth spot in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking. Czechia’s advantage from the qualifying rounds has dwindled completely. Now, they are under duress to hold on, as Türkiye has closed the gap completely.

As noted in the last analysis, there is only one Czech side left, which is Viktoria Plzeň. In comparison, Türkiye has Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe remaining. All three sides are involved in the Europa League knockout playoffs. If no one advances, Czechia will maintain ninth place. If both Turkish teams progress and Plzeň is eliminated, then Türkiye could very well clinch ninth place. It is not a guarantee, but the likelihood will be much higher.

So, keep an eye on Viktoria Plzeň, Galatasaray, and Fenerbahçe over the next two weeks. The six games involving the trio will be pivotal in this race.

Battle for 12th/15th: Switzerland In Trouble

The UEFA coefficient battle for places in the top 12 and top 15 continue to intensify. Outside of Greece, the other six countries in this race have one or two sides left. For the exception of Austria and Switzerland, everyone will have a side in the knockout round playoffs.

Greece has, for all intents and purposes, sealed a top 15 place. If PAOK and/or Panathinaikos join Olympiakos in the last 16, that should see them finish at least 12th. Even if the pair fail to do so, they have a solid lead over Austria in 13th.

Speaking of Austria, they will be hoping to lock up a top 15 berth from now, while also trying to sneak into 12th place. They will need help, as both of Norway’s teams are in the knockout playoffs. Both countries are also looking good for a top 15 finish.

As for Scotland, Denmark, Switzerland, and Poland, their hopes of top 15 will rely on the next two rounds of play. The Danes are the only one in this group not to have a direct entrant in the last 16, piling the pressure on Midtjylland and København. They badly need at least one of the two to advance. Failure to do so will end their dwindling top 12 hopes, and quite possibly see them drop out of the top 15.

Switzerland will be left watching the knockout playoffs without any side involved. They can still pounce, but will need some help. It is more than realistic that most of the nations left in this battle will not have multiple teams going into the last 16. If that is the case, that could work to the Swiss’ benefit.

Israel is out of Europe after Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League elimination. It is highly disappointing for them, as everything looked quite favourable for them at the start of the campaign. Instead, they will finish 18th at best. Given their disastrous year, their hopes of 15th for next season does not look good either.

Scotland will hope for a miracle from Celtic, but since they already have Rangers in the last 16, they are still in a decent position. As for Poland, if Jagiellonia can join Legia in the round of 16 in the UECL, that will give them a great shot of sneaking into the top 15.

From the outlook, Greece is in a very good spot for top 12, Norway and Austria look likely to battle it out for 12th. As for the last two places in the top 15, it is on a knife’s edge between Scotland, Denmark, Switzerland, and Poland. Remember that this battle went down to the wire last term, so buckle up, and expect more drama.

Battle for 22nd: Serbia, Hungary Needing Miracles

The race for 22nd is nearing its conclusion, as Sweden, Cyprus, Serbia and Hungary are the only ones left in this race. Romania is too far back, and can just hope to finish as high as possible.

Cyprus is guaranteed a place in the last 16 since Paphos and Omonoia Nicosia meet in the UECL knockout playoffs. TSC and Ferencváros will hope to keep Serbia and Hungary in this race for as long as possible. First, they will have to successfully negotiate their next ties. If they fail, that will wrap up this race.

For everyone else, they do not have teams left. Ukraine, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Azerbaijan are left highly disappointed here, and for good reason. Ukraine never should have been dragged into this race to begin with, given their starting position. The other three did not get the help they needed in qualifying, which did them in. That can also be said for Romania, who saw a massive opportunity pass them by.

A Look At Everyone Else

Looking at the other five nations involved last week, Croatia and Latvia have no teams left. Dinamo Zagreb did end things with a win, but it was not enough to keep them in the UCL.

For Netherlands and especially Portugal, they had a good week, picking up three wins each. The latter did lose a team though, something the Dutch cannot say. Belgium, meanwhile, did what Portugal did last time out, and failed to grab any match points. They still have all their teams going into the knockout phase, a first for them.

For these three nations, next season will see them likely duke it out for spots sixth and seventh. Portugal in particular will be in an interesting spot, as not only will they push for sixth spot – they will also look to avoid falling below seventh. That makes things highly fascinating heading into the 2025/26 season.