UEFA Coefficient Analysis: League Phase Week 4

Last week saw the fourth week of league phase play across the UEFA club competitions, giving us plenty to discuss regarding the UEFA coefficients. We have seen several countries take some massive steps in the rankings, while others continue to fall.

Here is this week’s UEFA coefficient analysis.

UEFA Coefficient: Seasonal Ranking

The race for the European Performance Spots (EPSs) saw England continue to dominate, while Italy and Spain also looked good.

For the second matchweek in a row, English clubs combined for a 6-1-0 record, with Manchester United once again being the only side not to win. Still, it has been a very impressive start for the Premier League sides, who are still unbeaten in league phase play (15-5-0). Their reward is jumping ahead of Czechia and Portugal to lead the pack in the seasonal ranking. It will be quite a challenge to stop them from running away with the coefficient points.

Italy had a good week, largely aided by AS Roma, Lazio, and Fiorentina all winning on Thursday. Still, the Champions League showings need some improvements, as a 2-1-2 record at this point is just not enough. It is worth noting that due to the new coefficient model, a lot more points are awarded in the UCL, and will be key in this race. So, the Serie A will need more from their UCL quintet.

Spain had a much better week, making amends for their tame performances earlier this month. Along with England, they were the biggest winners this week. Keep this up, and they will easily close the gap on their rivals above them.

Germany and France disappointed, and must do better. To be fair to the latter, they have been rather good this term. The same cannot be said for the former – do not let their current position of fourth place fool anyone. Of the top 10 countries in the ranking, only Belgium and Sweden have more defeats than the Bundesliga’s eight.

Portugal continues to pull in points, and while Sporting Braga has disappointed thus far, everyone else is looking quite solid. Seeing they are in second spot, they could really give it a push for an EPS. Benfica’s loss to Feyenoord might have been the one true downer for them (more on that later), but it has to be seen as a great week nevertheless.

Finally, Czechia has slid down the rankings, after failing to grab a win last week. It looks like they are starting to come back down to earth following an incredible summer. Of course, they should not be disheartened, as Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha are still in decent position to advance, while Viktoria Plzeň is also not looking too shabby.

UEFA Coefficients: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Ninth: Türkiye Given Hope

As previously mentioned, it was not a good week for Czech football after they dominated the summer’s qualifiers. To make matters worse, the Turkish clubs made the most of their slip-up.

Both Galatasaray and Beşiktaş grabbed wins, while Fenerbahçe drew. Those three results pulled in 1.000 points, out of a possible 1.600. That allowed the Turks to take a good chunk out of their deficit for ninth place. If the quartet can have another week or two like that, they will surely make some headway in this for ninth.

About a month from now, Slavia Praha will meet Fenerbahçe in what promises to be one of the most pivotal games in the Europa League this fall. A lot is on the line in that direct clash, and a Fener victory could play a big role in Türkiye catching Czechia.

Battle for 12th/15th: Scotland, Poland Gaining Ground

Things are starting to look very fascinating in the battle for the top 15 in the UEFA coefficient ranking. We saw some key changes in the rankings, as three countries moved up the rankings, while two fell.

Norway and Austria continue to occupy 11th and 12th, respectively. However, the latter once against has disappointed, with three of their four sides losing. With a record of 2-1-7 in league phase play, that will not be enough for Austria to hold onto 12th place, and could put them in serious danger of falling out of the top 15.

Greece and Denmark won 0.750 points each, allowing them both to jump ahead of Switzerland, who only managed 0.400 points. Panathinaikos and FC København have not kicked into gear yet in the Conference League. If they can do so, that will go a long way to securing top 15 for both.

Switzerland and Israel are the two countries to fall in the race this week. For the latter, it was only a matter of time seeing that only Maccabi Tel Aviv is left in Europe. Soon, everyone else will leave them without a prayer in this altogether. As for Switzerland, they are not out of things yet, but their hopes will realistically fall in Sankt Gallen and Lugano.

Scotland and Poland were the week’s biggest winners in the race for 15th, courtesy of the 1.000 points the pair managed to obtain. The former has already put themselves within touching distance of 15th place, with a repeat performance next week likely to see them pass at least one country. As for the latter, the gap between them and 15th has decreased to less than 2.000 points, meaning they are certainly not out of this.

Battle for 22nd: Hungary Makes Most of Slip-ups

It was a very quiet week in the race for 22nd, as almost all of the 11 teams lost last week. There was one exception though, as Ferencváros stunned OGC Nice. Seeing that Hungary was the only country to grab points this week, they are now sitting in 22nd spot, remarkably.

How likely the Hungarians can hold onto the position is another matter in and of itself. It would be an incredible achievement if they actually do so, seeing that Fradi is the only club left, in comparison to Sweden and Cyprus having three teams left.

Speaking of the Swedes and Cypriots, neither could get on the board last week. The good thing for them both is that there are still plenty of games left to turn things back around. They are still the overwhelming favourites for what is likely the final spot in the top 22. As things stand, both would have two teams in the knockout rounds, so it is now just a matter of trying to at least maintain that.

As for everyone else in this battle, it feels like a matter of damage limitation. While the likes of Romania, Bulgaria, and Azerbaijan are not fully out yet, there is nothing to suggest that they will be able to make up the gap of 2.175 points for 22nd. It is a failure of a season for all three, while Slovakia’s season will be overrated due to Slovan Bratislava making the UCL proper.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Ireland Getting Closer to 33rd

The battle for 33rd and 38th places was very fascinating this week, as there were several victories, resulting some changes in the ranking.

Ireland strengthened their position in 32nd spot thanks to Shamrock Rovers’ big win over Larne. Of the four countries immediately below them at the time of writing, only one grabbed a win. That goes a long way when trying to secure a top 33 place. They are almost there, with Rovers needing just more win to qualify for the knockout rounds.

Kosovo remains in 33rd for now, but since they have no league phase representation, that will not be the case come the end of the fall. While Armenia’s Noah narrowly lost, the same cannot be said for Iceland and Víkingur Reykjavík, who grabbed a 3-1 victory over Cercle Brugge to jump ahead of Latvia into 35th place. That could be crucial in this race, as now the Nordic nation is within a draw of 33rd.

Finland and Bosnia also saw wins, with the latter jumping over Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan into 38th spot. All hope is not lost for 33rd place as a result, despite there still being quite a bit of work to do. Of course, 38th is not yet secured, with Kazakhstan still in it. It just takes one win for them to stay in this.

For Faroe Islands, as expected, they have fallen out of the top 38, and will be left to rue what could have been. KÍ losing to HJK in the Conference League playoff round is showing its repercussions now, and can easily be looked back as the reference point for the season.

Battle for 50th: Welsh Joy

There was a major result last Thursday in the race for 50th. The New Saints became the first Cymru Premier to win a match in the main rounds of a UEFA club competition. In doing so, the 0.500 coefficient points they won for Wales not only saw them pass Georgia, but ensured a place in the top 50 come the end of this season. Only Belarus can catch them, and that looks unlikely at this point.

Speaking of Belarus, Dinamo Minsk lost for the second matchday in a row. A pair of narrow one-goal defeats may seem too bad, but it is worth noting that things will get more difficult. With FC København, Legia Warszawa, and Panathinaikos still left play, things are not looking favourable for Dinamo to grab the requisite points to make the knockout rounds. They better beat Larne, otherwise, it will almost surely be game over for Belarus and their hopes for 50th.

Georgia is on the chopping block now, as they fall to 50th. The distance between them and Belarus is 1.125 points, meaning Dinamo needs two wins and a draw for the Georgians to fall into 51st. That is not looking too likely at this stage, with can give them a reason to breathe a sigh of relief.

A Look at Everyone Else

To the other countries not (yet) in a battle in the five-year UEFA coefficient battle. We start with Netherlands, who had a decent week, highlighted by Feyenoord’s victory at Benfica in the UCL. That allowed the Dutch to just hold Portugal off a bit longer in what could be an all-out battle for sixth at some point this term. For now, there is still enough of a gap between the two.

For Belgium, it was a largely disappointing week, with just two wins coming. The good thing is that Anderlecht is three for three in the UEL, and virtually assured of a place in the knockout rounds. With Gent’s victory, both UECL teams are currently in the knockout round places. Union needs to wake up fast, otherwise, their European journey will not continue beyond the league phase.

Looking further down the ranking, Croatia got a win from Dinamo Zagreb and is looking good to finish in the top 20. The task now will be to earn as many points as possible with the view of being involved in a potential battle for 22nd next term.

Serbia and Ukraine continue to disappoint, as neither were able to pick up any points. While both should be okay to hold onto their spots in the top 22 for this term, that may not be the same by the end of next season. Thus, points are needed, and very soon.

While Moldova and Northern Ireland also drew blanks, Slovenia had an incredible week, with wins from Celje and Olimpija Ljubljana. Sitting in 30th spot in the ranking, Slovenia could be having a view of the top 29 going into next term if they can keep things going. There are plenty of points to be won still, and with at least eight games left for their sides, we could be looking at a very big year for them.