UEFA Coefficient Analysis: League Phase Week 5

The UEFA coefficient battles at the midpoint of the three league phases are shaping up to be quite the watch as always.

Some nations are already looking good at this stage, and could wrap things up before February. For others, the struggle is real, and time is of essence to avoid a disaster. Whatever the situation is, it is quite worth the following.

Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the fifth week of league phase play.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

The gap between England and the rest continues to go in the seasonal UEFA coefficient ranking. We are just in November, and already the Premier League looks set to win a European Performance Spot (EPS) and earn an extra spot in the Champions League next season. With a 7-2-0 record, where five of those wins came in the UCL, there is little stopping them at this rate.

Germany can already be quite happy with how things have gone. They are currently second, and has had a very solid start to the campaign. As things stand, all seven Bundesliga sides would be progressing from the league phase. Only they and England can make that claim at the moment.

Spain and Italy had decent weeks, picking up 1.125 and 1.285 points, respectively. The Serie A clubs have had too few victories in comparison to their rivals. That is a problem early on, and could become costly if things do not change quickly. That explains their status in fifth spot in the rankings. Spain, meanwhile, needs to make the most of their extra team in Europe. Two of their UCL sides have not performed so far, and that could end up leaving them in a pickle come the end of January.

France had a disastrous week with five losses and just 0.571 points. More has to be expected from the Ligue 1 representatives, especially given the fact they get seven clubs. No country in the top 10 of the seasonal rankings has more losses than the French sides (14), with that needing the change with haste.

Regarding the other three challengers – Portugal, Poland, and Cyprus – only one of them did anything meaningful last time out. That was the Cypriots, who went unbeaten in the week (1-2-0). The Portuguese and Poles disappointed, as neither of them secured a win. There is still half of the league phase left to try and recover, which is the one positive thing for them. Poland in particular, who has not looked great in the league phase thus far with a record of 4-4-4, will need to pick things up.

At the midway point of the league phases, it is England pulling clear while Germany, Spain, Cyprus, and Italy applying the most pressure. Whether anyone else from the chasing pack can keep up remains to be seen.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Belgium Trying to Keep Pace

It was another poor week in the battle for sixth and seventh in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking. Netherlands and Portugal both failed to earn a win from either of their combined 10 teams. Meanwhile, Belgium grabbed a win and a draw for a total of 0.600 points on the week.

It feels like a slugfest in this battle, where the Dutch have been inconsistent. Just five victories across 23 league phase matches is nothing short of a failure. Despite having all six teams playing, they have not made the most of the advantage. For that reason, sixth is not yet secured for them.

After all, Portugal has seven wins and two draws from 16 league phase ties. It is not phenomenal, but certainly better than 15 defeats. It is still a tough ask for them to catch the Netherlands, but it is feasible given the circumstances.

As for Belgium, they are doing what they can with three sides. Genk’s big win at Braga, coupled with Club Brugge’s result against Barcelona, were pleasant surprises for them. They are still hanging around for seventh place, though that largely depends on how many of the trio can progress from the league phase.

It really is difficult to predict how this battle will go from here. No one has really stood out in the league phase, but Netherlands has particularly been poor. That is something to keep an eye on over the next couple of months.

Battle for Ninth: Status Quo Maintained Again

It is becoming to feel like more of the same story in the battle for ninth, at least from Türkiye’s perspective. Another strong week saw them grab 1.000 out of a possible 1.200 points, which is commendable. How they have managed to hold Czechia at bay is remarkable.

The sole draw came from Fenerbahçe, who drew versus direct rivals in Viktoria Plzeň in what felt like a win for the Turks. It is yet another week where Czechia have failed to capitalize on having an extra side in the league phase. That has been the most disappointing part from their side.

For reference, Türkiye has a record of 8-1-2 in the league phase so far, which is excellent. In comparison, the Czechs have a 4-6-4 record, which although is not horrific, could certainly be better.

With a gap of 3.700 points separating ninth and 10th at the moment, there is still much work left for Czechia to do if they are to succeed at overtaking their rivals this term.

Battle for 12th/15th: Greece, Cyprus Do Well In Otherwise Poor Week

Only two nations involved in the race for 12th/15th managed to have a positive record last time out. It was otherwise a really sloppy week for many of the countries here.

Greece and Cyprus both got a point each, with the latter going undefeated. It is getting increasingly difficult to look past them for 15th spot, with it now being a matter of how soon they can pass Switzerland and Austria.

Poland, meanwhile, has to be quite disappointed in what they have done so far in the UECL proper. Even though all four of their European representatives qualified, it has been a rather poor showing for a country looking to lock down top 12 status. With that said, they still have the most points this term among the countries between 11th and 19th. Plus, three of their four are currently in a knockout round spot. It can still be a clean sweep for them in that perspective. They will need to improve though, because their showing has been far from impressive.

For everyone else, it was mostly a weak performance. Denmark, Switzerland, and Austria got exactly half of the points available to them. As for Norway, Scotland, and Sweden, it was a dire week, as neither of them secured a victory. In fact, the Swedes collected no points. Not a promising look for them. Time is of essence for them and the Scots for 15th, as they have the most work to do. Whether they can pull through is another matter.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Slovenia, Ukraine Move Up Rankings

The race for 22nd/29th in the UEFA coefficient ranking saw most of the countries have a successful week. Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, and Ukraine all had wins, while Slovakia and Bulgaria ended up empty-handed.

Croatia and Hungary are still the pair in the top 22. However, Romania’s CS Universitatea Craiova grabbed a win to ensure they keep pace. It is looking more and more like these three will compete for two spots. However, Serbia and especially Slovenia could have a say if they can keep up the wins. Celje is a perfect three-for-three in the UECL proper this fall, putting their nation in a very good spot.

Azerbaijan and Ukraine also got points from their performance, with the latter earning two wins. That helps them in their push to secure top 29. It is expected that Russia will again receive 4.333 points this term, meaning the Ukrainians still need about 0.500 points to stay ahead of them. That also leaves Slovakia and Bulgaria with a lot of work to do. Neither have looked good, and will need to ameliorate the performances shown so far.

Continue to keep an eye on that trio from 21st to 23rd, as well as Slovakia and Bulgaria. Those look to be the most fascinating positions going into the second half of this league phase.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Finland and Kosovo Grab Wins as Ireland Secures Top 33

The race for 33rd/38th saw most of the countries involved grab no points. That is what makes it all the more sweet for Finland and Kosovo, who were the only two to win last time out. The latter in particular is content, having secured a top 38 place in the process.

It is now a question of who can make the knockout rounds, as those bonus points that come with progression could be enough to dislodge Moldova from 33rd. Kazakhstan will have the most challenge with that due to Kairat playing in the UCL. For Armenia, Finland, and Kosovo, it certainly looks quite possible. All three of their teams are currently in a knockout round spot as well, which certainly makes the watch all the more fascinating.

For that reason, Iceland is not completely safe yet. Breiðablik has not earned a win in this league phase either, which is not a pretty sight. If they were to be eliminated, then they would need help from other results to maintain a top 33 spot. Although the gap is a little more than 2.000 points from the chasing pack, that lead can easily dissipate.

Bosnia still requires one more result to pip Latvia and secure 38th. How much higher than could finish is a different question. After Zrinjski’s massive win to start their second league phase campaign, it has been quite the contrast. The good news for them is that they still have three chances to get the necessary points, but the schedule does not look fantastic for them.

Ireland has, for all intents and purposes, sealed a place in the top 33. They have eclipsed 16.500 points in their five-year total, a mark that is unlikely to be challenged by anyone below them, let alone by three of the lot. They will be moved to the last section of the article from the next matchweek. It is a truly remarkable performance from the Irish clubs in the qualifying rounds, which played a key role in them being able to virtually secure top 33.

For the remainder of the league phase, keep an eye on those four countries below Moldova in the rankings. They could all still have something to say come the end of December (January in Kazakhstan’s case).

Battle for 50th: Gibraltar On the Cusp

It is coming down to the wire in the battle for 50th spot in the UEFA coefficient ranking. That is due to Gibraltar’s Lincoln Red Imps earning another result in the UECL, closing the gap even further between themselves and Luxembourg. This now results in a very nervy wait for the latter, who can seldom do anything at this rate.

If Gibraltar picks up any more points this term, they end (at least) 50th and jump ahead of both Luxembourg and Montenegro, who already fell into the bottom five. It is still a fairly tough ask for Lincoln to do so. However, there are certainly still possibilities in their remaining schedule. Keep an eye out on them, because another victory would not only secure 50th, but hand them a realistic chance of earning bonus points.

A Look at Everyone Else

For the rest of the nations with teams left, it was more of the same from Israel and Malta, who once again saw their teams lose. Time is already starting to run out on them earning any more points. Currently, neither of their teams are in a position to advance beyond the league phase.

North Macedonia’s Shkëndija drew their tie due to a last-minute equalizer, putting them on the precipice of knockout round football. In what was a tough challenge to move out of the bottom five, now the Balkan country is well removed from that conversation. It is an impressive feat for North Macedonian football, and will be a task to replicate next term.