There are some more fascinating conclusions to be made in this latest UEFA coefficient analysis, as the penultimate matchweeks in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League took place. Some more teams were eliminated, while others locked down places in the knockout rounds.
Both competitions will see their respective league phases come to an end this week. In the meantime, where do things stand in the coefficient rankings? This is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after week 9 of league phase play.
Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.
Also, the coefficient totals include UECL bonus points only. Any guaranteed bonus points due to league phase ranking/qualifying for the round of 16 in the UCL and UEL will be added once the league phase is done.
UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking
We commence with the seasonal ranking, where the European Performance Spots are determined. If it was not already clear before, England’s place in the top two is all but secure. The continued battle will be for the places behind them.
| National Association | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left | 24/25 Coefficient |
| 1. England (+1) | 14.152 (41-9-14) | 1.333 (6-0-2) | 9 (9) | 29.464 |
| 2. Poland (-1) | 13.625 (28-11-11) | N/A | 4 (4) | 11.750 |
| 3. Germany (=) | 13.421 (26-9-15) | 0.571 (2-0-4) | 7 (7) | 18.421 |
| 4. Spain (+2) | 12.187 (29-8-20) | 1.125 (4-1-2) | 8 (8) | 23.892 |
| 5. Italy (=) | 11.935 (26-9-15) | 0.857 (2-2-2) | 7 (7) | 21.875 |
| 6. Portugal (+1) | 11.600 (25-8-11) | 1.000 (2-1-1) | 4 (5) | 16.250 |
| 7. Cyprus (-3) | 11.406 (20-12-11) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 3 (4) | 10.562 |
| 8. France (=) | 10.996 (25-6-21) | 0.571 (2-0-4) | 7 (7) | 17.928 |
| 9. Greece (=) | 10.500 (18-17-10) | 1.000 (2-1-0) | 4 (5) | 12.687 |
| 10. Denmark (=) | 9.625 (19-10-7) | 0.500 (0-2-0) | 2 (4) | 7.656 |
Six of the eight Premier League sides prevailed in their matches last week, with Manchester City and Nottingham Forest being the exceptions. Ironically, both teams, along with Crystal Palace, are the only three sides that are not in an automatic round of 16 place. As such, there is a high chance of there being a considerable amount of bonus points coming England’s way.
Germany managed to maintain third spot despite a very poor showing. Two wins from six, coupled with four defeats, is not a promising look, and they can seldom afford a repeat showing next week. They and France had identical record, and will be left ruing their chances.
Spain had a solid week, earning 1.125 match points. That moved them up to fourth spot, and can already be assured of six knockout round places. Athletic Club’s game next round is key to determining their hopes of retaining a top two berth. Italy also will not be happy with their showings, especially with a 1-1-2 record in the UCL. That poses some serious concern as to whether they can post the requisite numbers to keep this race competitive.
Poland, of course, was idle last week, as they will be this week, as their teams are in the Conference League only. They will not be in the top two come the end of the week, due to the bonus points Germany will receive.
Speaking of bonus points, the current totals would see England increase their lead considerably.
| National Association | Teams | Round of 16 Entrants | Total Bonus Points (LP + KO) |
| 1. England | 9 (6+2+1) | 6 (5+1+0) | 5.208 |
| 2. Germany | 6 (3+2+1) | 3 (1+1+1) | 3.321 |
| 3. Spain | 7 (4+2+1) | 3 (1+1+1) | 3.281 |
| 4. France | 6 (3+2+1) | 3 (1+1+1) | 3.035 |
| 5. Portugal | 3 (1+2+0) | 2 (0+2-0) | 2.700 |
| 6. Italy | 6 (3+2+1) | 1 (0+1+0) | 2.500 |
| 7. Greece | 4 (1+2+1) | 1 (0+0+1) | 1.800 |
| 8. Poland | 3 (0+0+3) | 1 (0+0+1) | 1.750 |
| 9. Denmark | 1 (0+1+0) | 1 (0+1-0) | 1.562 |
| 10. Hungary | 1 (0+1+0) | 1 (0+1-0) | 1.375 |
If these totals remain about the same, then there really will not be any stopping England. Having six teams qualify directly for the round of 16 is incredible, and plays a key in the total bonus points available. Germany, Spain, and France would also earn more than 3.000 points, while Italy lags behind with only 2.500.
There is one other major factor, and that is number of teams in the knockout rounds. England is currently the only national association to have a full complement of teams beyond this stage. Italy is the only other nation that can join them, though Napoli requires a win on Wednesday to have any shot of this happening. Although Italy has 0.621 points less than Spain, it could equal out if they manage to have all of their teams advance.
The EPS battle will really see some major changes after Wednesday and Thursday’s results. This will go a long way in determining who has the advantage heading into the knockout rounds.
UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking
Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Trouble Brewing for Dutch
Moving onto the five-year UEFA coefficient battles, and the race for sixth is starting to intensify. All three of Netherlands, Portugal, and Belgium managed two wins each. But, it is the Portuguese who are the happiest, having picked up the most points.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 6. Netherlands | 66.428 | 8.578 (22-5-28) | 0.666 (2-0-3) | 6 (6) |
| 7. Portugal | 64.266 | 11.600 (25-8-11) | 1.000 (2-1-1) | 4 (5) |
| 8. Belgium | 58.550 | 7.700 (13-5-14) | 0.800 (2-0-1) | 3 (5) |
Adding insult to injury, three of the four clubs left from Portugal are already through. The sole exception, Benfica, still has a chance to advance as well. If that somehow happens, then Netherlands is really in trouble.
Speaking of the Dutch, they currently have just two teams in the knockouts: PSV and AZ. Up to three more can join them, with Utrecht already eliminated. This could really get ugly for the Eredivisie, as they could be left with just one side left at the conclusion of the league phase. Sixth spot would almost surely go to Portugal.
For Belgium, at best they can hope for Club Brugge and Union Saint-Gilloise to win in the UCL on Wednesday and end up in the top 24. If this does not happen, their last pretensions on seventh spot will be gone.
Pay very close attention to the Dutch teams this week, as they cannot mess up here. Sporting Braga will have the chance to eliminate Go Ahead Eagles, which could put Portugal on the brink of sixth place. So, keep an eye on this battle this week.
Battle for Ninth/Tenth: Greece Piling the Pressure
There is another sudden turn of events in the race for top 10, and that comes from Greece. Suddenly, they have four teams in the knockout rounds at the moment. Three are official, with another having a chance. That leaves Czechia and Poland on red alert.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 9. Türkiye | 48.325 | 7.525 (15-8-15) | 0.200 (0-1-1) | 3 (5) |
| 10. Czechia | 46.275 | 7.800 (15-12-17) | 0.200 (0-1-1) | 4 (5) |
| 11. Greece | 44.712 | 10.500 (18-17-10) | 1.000 (2-1-0) | 4 (5) |
| 12. Poland | 44.625 | 13.625 (28-11-11) | N/A | 3 (4) |
The gap between Czechia and Greece is currently at 1.563 points, but only Viktoria Plzeň can add bonus points to that this month for the former. In comparison, the Greeks already know PAOK and Panathinaikos will add to their total, with Olympiakos Piraeus also having the potential to do so. If all three do so, Czechia will already be feeling the heat.
Poland, being idle, is just hoping the distance does not grow much more than this. They are still in this, but could use some help this week. As for Türkiye, they should be safe for at least top 10. They still have the pressure of the Czechs and, to a lesser extent, Greece. However, with three teams moving on, they should be good.
Wednesday will be a very important day for this race, as Olympiakos’ result could prove pivotal come season’s end. Of course, Thursday’s bonus points should also play a role between Czechia and Greece.
Battle for Top 15: Switzerland In Trouble
The race for 15th in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking is still alive and kicking, but how long that remains to be the case is unknown. It could very well be done and dusted next week.
Austria and Scotland both managed wins, though it does feel like a matter of too little, too late. Their combined 1.000 point from the week has them creep a little bit closer to Cyprus and Switzerland, who both hit blanks.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 13. Denmark | 39.481 | 9.625 (19-10-7) | 0.500 (0-2-0) | 2 (4) |
| 14. Norway | 39.337 | 6.150 (12-11-12) | 0.750 (1-1-0) | 2 (5) |
| 15. Cyprus | 34.943 | 11.406 (20-12-11) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 3 (4) |
| 16. Switzerland | 34.500 | 6.000 (14-6-16) | 0.000 (0-0-2) | 3 (5) |
| 17. Austria | 33.450 | 3.700 (11-7-22) | 0.400 (1-0-1) | 2 (5) |
| 18. Scotland | 31.150 | 4.300 (8-14-18) | 0.600 (1-1-0) | 2 (5) |
It is important to note that the Cypriots and Swiss already have teams in the knockout rounds of the UECL. That is not the same for the Austrians or Scots. This means that should RB Salzburg and Celtic go out on Thursday, that is it.
Cyprus still holds the advantage, though Switzerland could take 15th from them if Basel and/or Young Boys can advance in the UEL. Paphos can also progress in the UCL, although that is a bit less likely.
Denmark and Norway can dream of having multiple knockout round teams, but will require victories from their sides on Wednesday and Thursday, plus some help.
It is last drink saloon for Austria and Scotland, while Cyprus and Switzerland jostle for 15th place to end the month.
Battle for 22nd/29th: Croatia Claims Huge Result
There was another huge turn of events in the race for top 22 on Thursday. Dinamo Zagreb defeated FCSB, which has practically ensured Croatia will have two teams in the knockout rounds. Romania, meanwhile, is set to have none.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 21. Croatia | 26.406 | 5.281 (10-6-9) | 0.500 (1-0-0) | 2 (4) |
| 22. Hungary | 25.125 | 5.250 (13-6-8) | 0.250 (0-1-0) | 1 (4) |
| 23. Romania | 25.000 | 5.500 (15-5-17) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
| 24. Ukraine | 24.412 | 6.812 (15=5-13) | N/A | 1 (4) |
| 25. Serbia | 24.375 | 4.375 (10-4-9) | 0.500 (1-0-0) | 1 (4) |
| 26. Slovenia | 22.843 | 4.750 (10-8-10) | N/A | 1 (4) |
| 27. Azerbaijan | 22.750 | 5.625 (11-4-10) | 0.500 (1-0-0) | 1 (4) |
| 28. Slovakia | 22.375 | 2.125 (7-3-12) | N/A | 0 (4) |
| 29. Bulgaria | 19.875 | 4.000 (9-9-13) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
Meanwhile, Ferencváros’ draw helped Hungary leapfrog Romania for 22nd. With the Hungarians set to claim a good amount of bonus points, it is now do or die for FCSB and Romania. Victory on Thursday, plus some other results elsewhere, will keep them in the race. Any other result, and the race for 22nd could well and truly be over.
Azerbaijan got another win from Qarabağ, which sees them move to 27th place. They have a distance to go if they are to reach 22nd. Serbia, on the other hand, is closer thanks to Crvena zvezda. Bonus points could prove key here, as Hungary’s position in 22nd is not yet safe.
Thursday will be an important day in this race, so keep a close eye on what happens there. Bulgaria will also need a win from Ludogorets to avoid dropping out of the top 29. Whether they can do so, it will be worth keeping an eye on.
A Look at Everyone Else
We look at the last three nations not yet covered, with all three of them to be eliminated this week. The results were identical – more defeats.
Sweden and Israel will be left disappointed with how this season turns out. Malmö and Maccabi Tel Aviv lost once again in the UEL, officially ending their hunt for knockout football. Their final games on Thursday will be a chance for their nations to end poor continental campaigns on a high.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 19. Sweden | 29.625 | 5.000 (14-8-15) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
| 20. Israel | 27.750 | 2.875 (8-6-11) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
| 37. Kazakhstan | 13.750 | 3.625 (5-6-14) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
As for Kazakhstan, their shot at top 33 came to an end with Kairat Almaty’s loss. Even with just five wins on the year, they can be proud for putting their country on the map. It is now a matter of trying to collect some more points to end their run, and set the Kazakhs up for another successful year in 2026/27.