The last 16 of the UEFA Conference League is here, pitting the top eight sides from the fall’s league phase together with the victors of last month’s knockout round playoffs. The resultant is eight ties, several of which are highly intriguing, and will be must-watch football.
The Deck previews all eight ties to occur over the next two weeks, and predict who will make it past this stage.
UEFA Conference League: Round of 16
AZ Looks to Come Alive
Our pick for tie of the round sees AZ Alkmaar face off against Sparta Praha in what is a first-time meeting between the two.
Hosting the first leg, AZ will literally feel quite at home. They have a near-perfect record at the AFAS Stadion this term, conceding just once across six games, five of which they won (5-1-0). The Eredivisie club will feel confident they can progress, especially considering they have never lost to a Czech club across eight previous matches (4-4-0). They played Jablonec during the 2021/22 group stage, winning 2-1 at home and earning a 1-1 draw on the road.
Sparta had some problems at certain points of qualifying and in the league phase, but pulled it together in the second half of the latter to finish in the top eight. They have failed to score in three European games this term, two happening in the group phase. However, they have been quite strong defensively, conceding only three times. They have a solid record versus Dutch teams, winning six of 13 (6-5-3). They did, however, lose to Feyenoord in the Champions League last term.
Prediction: Sparta Praha
Another high-profile clash sees the 2022/23 quarterfinalists Lech Poznań take on Shakhtar Donetsk.
Poland’s Lech saw off KuPS Kuopio last month without much trouble, making it to the round of 16 of the UECL for the second time. Finishing 11th during the fall, they lost consecutive away games on matchdays 2 and 3, ultimately costing them a top eight place. While this is their first time facing Shakhtar, they did get the better of Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk in the 2010/11 Europa League playoff round, winning 1-0 on aggregate. They have also scored in all 14 of their European games this season.
Shakhtar is one of two teams left in the Conference League to have tasted European glory before, winning the final edition of the UEFA Cup back in 2008/09. The Pitmen, partaking in the UECL for the first time, found their form by winning three in a row during the league phase. That helped them cement a place in the top eight, avoiding the knockout playoffs. However, their only defeat in the fall came at the hands of another Ekstraklasa club, Legia Warszawa, who is the only Polish team they have faced before this.
Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk
Making their debut in the knockout rounds in Europe, Rijeka looks to pull off a major scalp when they battle the league phase table toppers Strasbourg.
Rijeka went four home games in a row without conceding before Omonoia Nicosia ended that run two weeks ago. The Croats did not panic though, scoring thrice to go through. They are just the second Croatian club to reach this far in the group phase era, following the footsteps of Dinamo Zagreb. Riječki bijeli have never beaten a French side before, going 0-2-2. They took on Lille two years ago in the playoff round, but were knocked out in extra time.
Strasbourg was the best team of the league phase, winning five of six matches. It saw them not only finish in the top eight of the league phase, but end up number one. It is their second time making the round of 16 in the group phase era, 20 years on from achieving the same feat in the UEFA Cup. Their best run came in 1979/80, where they reached the last eight of the European Cup. This tie will be their first crack versus Croatian opposition.
Prediction: Strasbourg
Two more UECL debutants face each other as Samsunspor battles Rayo Vallecano.
The Turkish side is enjoying their first-ever season in a major European club competition after a record-breaking third place finish in the league last term. They have looked quite strong in the UECL so far, winning their first three league phase games before failing to do so for their final three. Kırmızı Şimşekler did recover in time though, beating Shkëndija home and away last month. Their reward is a meeting with Spanish opposition for the first time. They have had six clean sheets in Europe so far.
Rayo heads into this tie looking to match their other European campaign at the beginning of the millennium. On that occasion, they got to the quarterfinals of the UEFA Cup before losing to fellow LaLiga side Deportivo Alavés. They have done a great job in putting themselves in a position to return there. They have won all four home games thus far, conceding zero goals in the process. They did have Los Franjirrojos did have their problems on the road though, conceding in all three league phase games.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano
Palace Looks to Avoid Another Shock
After making the quarterfinals last term, Celje is one round away from making a return there, but will have quite the challenge against AEK Athens.
The Slovenians already defeated their opponents in the UECL this term, having done so on matchday 1. That was their first and currently only match against a Greek side. They improved on their league phase finish from last campaign, jumping eight places higher as well. Rumeno-modri saw off Lugano at this stage last term before doing the same to them in qualifying last summer. With 14 goals in the Conference League proper in 2025/26, they could be in for another significant scalp.
However, they will be in it tough as they face an in-form AEK who looks a lot better now. After that shock reverse in Slovenia, the side from the Greek capital won four of their next five, beating former European winners Fiorentina and Aberdeen in the process. Their reward is a first knockout round showing since 2017/18, when Dynamo Kyiv ended their run in the Europa League round of 32. Before their loss to Celje in October, Dikéfalos were unbeaten in six against Slovenian opposition (3-3-0).
Prediction: AEK Athens
Another team looking to right their wrongs from the league phase is Crystal Palace, who faces AEK Larnaca.
The Eagles were stunned by their Cypriot opponents at home on matchday 2, one of two league phase defeats for them. Playing in their first-ever European campaign, Palace has not hit the ground running as much as some would have expected. They needed to get to this round via the knockout playoffs, where they saw off a spirited Zrinjski Mostar club who gave them all they could handle. Outside of the defeat against AEK, Palace has won three of their other four home matches.
Three years on from making it to this stage, AEK Larnaca is back, and will hope to do better than last time. In the 2022/23 season, they were beaten home and away by West Ham, who went on to win the competition. Those two games were their only matches versus English opposition before the start of the campaign. They were incredibly difficult to break down during the fall, conceding just once – the fewest a side has ever conceded during the UECL league phase through two seasons.
Prediction: Crystal Palace
Back in the round of 16 for the fourth year running, Fiorentina will receive the challenge of another Polish team as they take on the league phase runner ups Raków Częstochowa.
La Viola are no strangers to the UECL knockout stages at this point, having won more matches in the competition than any other team (30). This is the third time they will meet a Polish team in a two-legged tie in the Conference League, beating Lech in the quarterfinals three years ago and, of course, Jagiellonia last month. Interestingly, in both ties, the Italians won the away leg before losing at home. The order of the ties has them playing at home first, which could spell danger for them.
Raków is on their best-ever run in Europe, going unbeaten in eight (6-2-0). They finished the league phase with just two goals conceded. Both of the games they did not win came against Czech sides. It will be their second time being paired with an Italian team, having faced Atalanta in the 2023/24 Europa League group stage. They lost 6-0 in total, going on to finish bottom of the section. They have done quite well in two-legged ties, even if this is their first in the knockout stages, progressing in 10 of 13.
Prediction: Fiorentina
We end with Sigma Olomouc trying to keep their stunning journey alive when they take on Mainz.
The Czech side squeezed through the league phase with a considerable slice of luck on the final matchday. After ending Lausanne-Sport in the knockout playoffs, they get to play in the round of 16 of a UEFA club competition for the first time since 1992/93. Interestingly, they did win both previous matches against a Bundesliga side, knocking off Hamburg in the 1991/92 UEFA Cup 6-2 on aggregate. That was their best-ever continental campaign, when they reached the quarterfinals.
Mainz is enjoying their best European season in their maiden Conference League voyage. Before this, all four of their previous forays came in the UEFA Cup/Europa League. Die Nullfünfer have won all four home games so far. In fact, they have just one defeat at home in European play, coming in 2005/06 against Sevilla. This will be their first test against a team from Czechia, with their only previous success in two-legged ties occurring two decades ago in the aforementioned 2005/06 season.
Prediction: Mainz