We have now reached the last 16 of the UEFA Europa League, where the race to be part of this season’s final in İstanbul truly starts to intensify. February’s eight knockout round playoff winners join the eight best-finishing sides from the league phase in competing for glory.
Here is The Deck’s preview of the UEL’s round of 16, where we also predict which eight clubs will advance to the quarterfinals.
UEFA Europa League: Round of 16
All-Italian Clash Highlights Round
We kick off this preview with our choice for tie of the round, as Bologna and AS Roma will meet in an all-Italian affair.
I Rossoblù are involved in an all-Italian European tie for the very first time after seeing off Brann last round. They are in rich vein of form in the Europa League, where they have gone unbeaten since matchday 1, a total of nine matches. It is the longest they have ever gone in UEFA club competition action without losing, something they will want to continue in this round. Bologna has never lost at home in the UEFA Cup/Europa League, while also having won four straight on the road, another first for them.
Roma is no stranger to facing fellow Serie A opposition in Europe, having knocked out AC Milan at the quarterfinal stage two years ago. I Giallorossi have a 3-1-2 record overall across six previous matches against an Italian team in continental action, all of which have come in this competition. The capital club will fancy their chances in the away match, considering they have not been beaten on their travels (3-1-0), something they have not done in a group phase since 2016/17.
Prediction: AS Roma
The repeat of a 2023/24 UEFA Conference League quarterfinal will take place between LOSC Lille and Aston Villa in what should be a fascinating two legs.
Lille had to overcome a first leg deficit in the knockout playoffs to get to this stage, a round they have not reached in the UEL since 2009/10. Les Dogues have just three wins across 17 versus sides from England (3-3-11), with their last victory coming during that return leg of the UECL QF almost two years ago. They did go on to lose that tie on penalties. Should they exact revenge on Villa, it will be a first appearance in the last eight of this tournament.
Villa earned 21 points across their eight league phase matches, the joint-best total of the 36 sides. Their reward is a third consecutive season facing a French team in the knockout rounds, with Paris Saint-Germain ending their UCL journey at the quarterfinal stage a year ago. Across their seven meetings versus Ligue 1 opposition, Villa has won all three home games, but never managed victory on French soil (3-1-3). They are looking for their first quarterfinal in the UEL era, something they did back in 1997/98 in the UEFA Cup.
Prediction: Aston Villa
After pulling off a penalty shootout success two weeks prior, Panathinaikos will have an arguably sterner test in their round of 16 clash with Real Betis.
The Greek outfit has proven difficult to beat over the last few months, as they are on a seven-match run without loss in the UEL. However, their last five games ended all square. Including qualifiers, they have drawn nine matches in European play this term, a record for them. Having twice reached the last eight during the UEFA Cup era, this is only the second time they have managed to partake in the last 16 of the Europa League under its current guise. The other occasion happened in its first edition back in 2009/10.
Betis ended fourth in the league phase after winning five of their eight games. However, their sole defeat did come at the hands of a Greek team, when PAOK got the better of them on matchday 7. This is the fourth time they have gotten thus far in the UEL, but have never managed to go farther. Remarkably, they have been beaten in all three previous home games in the last 16 of this competition, something they will certainly not want to repeat this time around.
Prediction: Real Betis
We are in for a cracking tie as Stuttgart comes up against the only side among the 16 to have won this trophy before, Porto.
Thirteen years on from their last appearance in the Europa League proper, Stuttgart returns to the round where they were eliminated. Lazio was the side to knock them out on that occasion, prevailing home and away. The Bundesliga club won all of their home games during the league phase, though Celtic beat them there last round. Across five previous matches versus Portuguese opposition, VfB has a 2-1-2 record, with Benfica taking them out of the 2010/11 edition at the round of 32.
Porto was one of six teams to have a perfect home record during the league phase, where they scored 10 times. Ironically, Stuttgart’s tally of 11 was the only that bettered theirs. Overall, Porto has won their last three matches against Bundesliga teams, though they were ousted by Bayer Leverkusen in the 2019/20 edition, losing both legs. Since lifting the trophy in 2010/11, they have progressed beyond the round of 16 just once, falling to eventual winners Sevilla in the 2013/14 quarterfinals.
Prediction: Porto
Revenge Time for Forest?
After making it past the knockout playoffs, Celta Vigo faces table toppers Olympique Lyonnais for their round of 16 tie.
Of the eight teams who had to play the extra two matches, Celta is the only to have scored across all 10 European ties this term. Scoring has seldom been a problem for Os Celestes, who have been kept off the scoresheet just once in their last 17 continental games. In what is their 10th time playing in Europe, this is the seventh time they have gotten this far. There will certainly be confidence for Celta, considering they defeated both French sides they faced during the league phase.
Lyon is the only team to have finished in the top eight in both of the first two seasons of the UEL league phase, showing incredible consistency. In fact, this is their seventh straight European season where they have gotten as far as the last 16. Their last three appearances saw them go farther than this. There will be one reason for concern from l’OL’s point of view: their one reverse during the group phase came at the hands of another Spanish club, with Real Betis defeating them on matchday 4.
Prediction: Real Betis
Ferencváros will contest with Sporting Braga as the pair face off for the first time.
Fradi nearly joined Braga directly in this round, as they went the first seven league phase matches without defeat. However, a loss to Nottingham Forest on the final day of the league phase saw them drop to the knockout playoffs, where they overcame Ludogorets. It is their second appearance in the last 16 of the UEL, where Bayer Leverkusen ended their journey three years ago. The Hungarian regulars reached the quarterfinals of the UEFA Cup in 1971/72, which was their first showing in the tournament.
Braga proved difficult to score on for much of the league phase, where they kept six clean sheets. The Portuguese side is no stranger to the UEL knockout rounds, though they surprisingly failed to make it that far last term. Still, with all of their Europa League pedigree, it is just the fourth time they are contesting in this round. Their only previous tie against a Hungarian club came in their maiden European season back in 1966/67, when Rába ETO Győr ousted them in the second round.
Prediction: Sporting Braga
It will be a first-time meeting for Genk and Freiburg, who are set to battle it out.
Genk is back in the knockout rounds of a European club competition for the first time in seven years. They have made the round of 16 once previously, They did succeed on that occasion, beating fellow Belgian club Gent. They have won all five away matches in the UEL this term – qualifiers included – in which they scored, which could become key for them at this stage of the tournament. In eight previous matches against Bundesliga teams, they are 2-2-4, with Stuttgart eliminating them 13 years ago in the round of 32.
Just as they had in their last two UEL showings, Freiburg is in the last 16. They have never gone farther than that though, losing three of four matches. Their away form in continental play is quite fascinating: Breisgau-Brasilianer have never lost a European away match in which they scored (7-2-0). As such, that could be key for the first leg if they do find the back of the net. They did keep four clean sheets during the league phase as well, which could be a good omen for them if they can keep that going.
Prediction: Freiburg
Finally, Nottingham Forest will be out for revenge as they take on FC Midtjylland for the second time in the competition this term.
The Tricky Trees fell to their Danish opponents on matchday 2, making it the first and only time in Europe where they were beaten despite scoring multiple times. They went one round further in their last European journey three decades ago, making the 1995/96 UEFA Cup quarterfinals before falling to Bayern Munich. Their best UEFA Cup showing came 12 years earlier, when they played in the semifinals, losing to Anderlecht. Those two seasons mark the only times they have gone farther than this in the tournament.
Midtjylland has enjoyed one of their best European seasons ever. Including qualifiers, they have a staggering 11-2-1 record, with their trip to Italy on matchday 6 being the only defeat. Their victory over Forest in the league phase was the second time they managed to come out victorious on English soil. They also beat Manchester City 1-0 away in the 2008/09 UEFA Cup, but lost on penalties. After several knockout round playoff showings, this is their first foray into the last 16 in Europe.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest