The 2024/25 Championship season is almost half-way complete with plenty of highs and lows across the campaign thus far, but which clubs stand the best shot at promotion and which are in massive relegation trouble?
In order to work this out, The Deck’s Callum has used each of the 24 Championship side’s current season’ points per game (PPG) and their current form PPG (over the last eight games) to work out each teams final points total as well as working out the average PPG between the two.
The effects of this do lead to some changes in terms of which sides will be automatically promoted to the Premier League, which will make the top six and the teams that will be fighting to avoid relegation down to League One.
This is the first of a four-part series, covering the Championship, League One, League Two and the National League for the remainder of the 2024/25 campaign. All of the statistics will change on a game-by-game basis but are all accurate at the time of writing.
Let’s begin by taking a closer look at the current form PPG…
Current form PPG
To begin this statistical analysis, we take a look at each Championship side’s current PPG over the last eight league games which in-turn produces a couple of shocks at either end of the table.
Unsurprisingly, Scott Parker’s Burnley have the highest form PPG (2.5), but they are closely followed by Leeds United & Blackburn Rovers who both have a PPG of 2.38. Sheffield United are the only other club with a PPG higher than two over the last eight league matches.
Outside of the current top six, Queens Park Rangers and Sheffield Wednesday have the highest PPG (1.88), which if followed places both of them as firm contenders to compete for a play-off spot by the end of the 2024/25 campaign.
At the other end of the table, Stoke City, Oxford United and Millwall are the only clubs outside of the current bottom three that have a PPG less than one and unsurprisingly all three have recently parted ways with their respective managers – though Oxford have since appointed Gary Rowett.
To find out each clubs’ current form PPG, click here.
Season PPG so far
Though some clubs currently hold games in-hand, including Portsmouth who have two over almost the entire division – each side’s respective PPG so far doesn’t exactly produce any initial shocks.
Leeds United may lead the way at the top of the Championship but their PPG so far this season is lower than Sheffield United’s who sit below them.
The current Championship top six unsurprisingly have the highest PPG in the league so far this season, though Middlesbrough narrowly miss out by just 0.11. These figures change on a game-by-game basis but currently everyone is almost in identical PPG order as they are in the overall league table.
Norwich City are the only other club in the entirety of the Championship that have a PPG lower than the side ranked directly belief them (Norwich 1.26, Millwall 1.27). Portsmouth’s is currently 0.95 though they have two games in-hand which could see that figure change dramatically in either direction over the next few weeks.
To see each sides current season PPG, click here.
Average PPG
As a sides PPG can fluctuate constantly throughout the season, we also decided to work out each of the 24 Championship sides’ average PPG based on their overall campaign thus far and their form PPG over the last eight matches.
This did throw up a few shocks at either end of the table. For example, Scott Parker’s Burnley have the highest average PPG in the entire division with 2.27, edging out Leeds United’s 2.24 and Sheffield United’s 2.15.
Danny Rohl’s Sheffield Wednesday also came out with a very respective 1.66 PPG, which is the seventh highest in the league and would place them firmly in a play-off battle by the end of the season if they were either able to retain their current form or improve it even more.
Stoke City also found themselves in very hot water, with their average PPG sitting at 0.67 which places them firmly in a relegation battle with the current bottom three and likely explains why they made the decision to part ways with their manager on Friday.
Final predicted standings:
Having established each side’s form PPG, season PPG and average PPG, we decided to work out what their predicted end of season points total would be for each of the three PPG’s and it did lead to some intriguing results.
Adding each clubs projected points total for the remaining games to their current points total gave us the number that each side are likely to hit by the end of the season with their respective category.
Using the table below, here is where each of the 24 Championship clubs are currently expected to finish according to their PPG totals…
| Current form PPG Table (last eight) | Current season PPG Table | Average (current form & season) PPG Table |
| C) Burnley FC – 105 points | C) Sheffield United – 98 points | C) Leeds United – 100 points |
| P) Leeds United – 103 points | P) Leeds United – 96 points | P) Burnley FC – 99 points |
| 3) Sheffield United – 97 points | 3) Burnley FC – 94 points | 3) Sheffield United – 97 points |
| 4) Blackburn Rovers – 95 points | 4) Sunderland AFC – 88 points | 4) Blackburn Rovers – 87 points |
| 5) Watford FC – 82 points | 5) Blackburn Rovers – 80 points | 5) Sunderland AFC – 85 points |
| 6) Sunderland AFC – 81 points | 6) Watford FC – 77 points | 6) Watford FC – 80 points |
| 7) Sheffield Wed. – 76 points | 7) Middlesbrough – 72 points | 7) Middlesbrough – 71 points |
| 8) Middlesbrough – 71 points | 8) West Brom. – 70 points | 8) Sheffield Wed. – 71 points |
| 9) QPR – 68 points | 9) Sheffield Wed. – 66 points | 9) West Brom. – 67 points |
| 10) West Brom – 64 points | 10) Swansea City – 60 points | 10) Swansea City – 61 points |
| 11) Swansea City – 62 points | 11) Bristol City – 60 points | 11) Norwich City – 59 points |
| 12) Norwich City – 61 points | 12) Norwich City – 58 points | 12) QPR – 59 points |
| 13) Coventry City – 59 points | 13) Millwall FC – 57 points | 13) Bristol City – 56 points |
| 14) Preston North End – 58 points | 14) Derby County – 54 points | 14) Coventry City – 56 points |
| 15) Portsmouth FC – 55 points | 15) Coventry City – 54 points | 15) Preston North End – 55 points |
| 16) Luton Town – 54 points | 16) Preston North End- 52 points | 16) Millwall FC – 52 points |
| 17) Bristol City – 53 points | 17) QPR – 50 points | 17) Derby County – 52 points |
| 18) Derby County – 50 points | 18) Luton Town – 50 points | 18) Luton Town – 52 points |
| 19) Millwall FC – 46 points | 19) Portsmouth FC – 44 points | 19) Portsmouth FC – 49 points |
| 20) Oxford United – 33 points | 20) Oxford United – 44 points | 20) Oxford United – 39 points |
| 21) Stoke City – 31 points | 21) Stoke City – 44 points | 21) Stoke City – 37 points |
| R) Hull City – 31 points | R) Hull City – 38 points | R) Hull City – 34 points |
| R) Cardiff City – 27 points | R) Cardiff City – 38 points | R) Cardiff City – 32 points |
| R) Plymouth Argyle – 27 points | R) Plymouth Argyle – 38 points | R) Plymouth Argyle – 32 points |
Championship fans, what do you make of your respective sides current predicted/expected finishes?