As we are in the long haul that is the international break and all missing club football, what better time to look at the relegation battle already ramping up in the Premier League and predict how things will be, come game week 38?
There have been some surprise packages so far with sides many would expect to be fighting for Europe, or at least be smooth sailing, right now simply fighting for their right to remain within the Premier League and newcomers as expected having to scrape for points in a bid to achieve safety in their ever-difficult first season in the English top flight. These are my predictions for how things will play out.
Premier League Relegation Candidates
Crystal Palace – Surviving
Coming into this season, most Palace supporters were likely filled with optimism from their previous season. Following the resignation of Roy Hodgson, Oliver Glasner stepped up to the mantle and carried The Eagles through their final 12 games. They won seven, drew three times and lost just twice.
There was much reason for Palace fans to be excited about this season. However, seven games in they find themselves 18th in the Premier League. A stark contrast from their previous 10th-place finish. However, looking at some of the talent in their squad, it is clear to see that this is just some unfortunate form rather than the new norm.
Some of the players they have such as Eze, Sarr, Guehi, Wharton and others are sure to hit their A game sooner or later and it’s important to remember they lost many key figures such as Olise and Joachim Andersen in the summer.
Teams will have to show Palace the respect they deserve for under the surface, they are a very strong team. Whether Glasner is the one to turn things around is yet to be seen but Palace fans should find comfort in having so much time to make things happen.
Ipswich Town – Surviving
Ipswich have returned to the Premier League for the first time since the 2001/02 season following back-to-back promotions and have taken to it well. They currently sit in 17th and are yet to win a match but this alone probably doesn’t tell the full story of their season thus far.
Ipswich have picked up four draws including in an impressive 2-2 with Champions League side Aston Villa as an electric Liam Delap brace saw them snatch a well-earned point. While they are yet to win, it is only a matter of time before they start to turn those draws into victories and begin picking up serious points.
They likely won’t have any real survival issues this season. What they will have more to think about though is how they can sustain Premier League status in the long term which is something some of the teams to be mentioned are seemingly currently struggling with.
Everton FC – Surviving
The final team of the current bottom six to survive is Everton. They always seem to pull it off, don’t they? For the past three seasons, they have finished 15th or below and seem set to keep that trend alive for a fourth time running.
While they do have talent, their squad is still lacking enough to make them serious contenders for anything more than fighting for safety. There is potential for change with the seemingly inevitable departure of Sean Dyche from Goodison Park, but genuinely competing for anything more will seemingly require serious investment from Dan Friedkin whose impending ownership takeover will be the source of hope for Everton fans for their future.
Leicester City – Relegated
While newly promoted Ipswich are predicted to survive, my prediction doesn’t have Leicester being so fortunate. While they looked like an incredible side in the Championship and virtually never in doubt for the Championship title, the loss of captain Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall will have hit The Foxes hard.
Over the summer, they failed to really make any improvements and seemingly preferred to give their Championship squad a shot at the Premier League with only seven players coming in. Like most teams promoted to the Premier League, it is in little doubt that Leicester will be returning to the EFL next season.
The signings Leicester made were expensive such as £10 million for Sam Johnstone and £19 million for Andre feel more like investments for their next Championship campaign than genuine attempts to stay in the division as they have failed to sufficiently replace Keirnan Dewsbury Hall who was a huge contributor of goals and assists last season. A hole they were not able to fill.
Southampton FC – Relegated
It came as a surprise that Southampton are in the Premier League because most expected that it would be Leeds to win the Championship play-off final and ascend to the top flight. However, the Saints find themselves there instead and seem the most likely of all three promoted sides to go down again. They currently sit in 19th place with only one point.
Despite some expensive signings such as Cameron Archer and Aaron Ramsdale, Southampton have conceded 15 goals which is the joint second most in the division and scored the least with just four goals in their opening seven matches.
However, out of the promoted sides, the underlying numbers suggest they are the most likely to survive as their xG suggests they should have scored double the number of goals they have and conceded one less. Perhaps if they can seriously turn the tide, they just might achieve survival.
Wolverhampton Wanderers F.C – Relegated
Another side that very few last season would see as relegation contenders is Wolves. Last season Wolves were 20 points from relegation. Following this season, they lost huge figures in Neto and Kilman and failed to properly reinvest the funds which has drastically changed their outlook.
This season, just seven games in, they already find themselves three points from safety. They have the worst goal difference in the division thanks to the shocking 21 goals they have conceded which works out to an average of three per game.
However, despite their poor start, sources at Football Insider claim that the board are fully behind the young manager. It is hard to ignore some of the talented characters at the disposal of O’Niel such as Lemina and Cunha but unless serious changes happen, there is nothing those players can do with such a poor defensive record.
With crucial upcoming home games in November against both Crystal Palace and Southampton, Wolves will need to turn things around and fast or they risk cutting adrift from the rest of the league before things even really get started.