After a relatively encouraging start to the season for the Rams, Derby’s form has worsened, as they’re currently five games without a victory. Therefore, Derby is occupying 19th place in the league, with only one point separating them between their current position, and the relegation places. With the Rams having decisive fixtures ahead, they must improve in both phases of the pitch.
Derby’s chance creation issues
Throughout the season, Derby County hasn’t been an effective attacking mechanism, as according to FBref, the Rams have the 19th best non-penalty xG – correlating with their current league position.
Recruiting new attacking personnel in the summer was an imperative task for Derby County, as the majority of their existing squad were proven in League One, but haven’t showcased the quality to thrive in the Championship, meaning they needed to recruit individuals that guarantee goals.
Jerry Yates & Kayden Jackson were the two examples that Paul Warne called upon, as they both possess attributes that correlate with his playstyle, as well as providing the necessary goals to bolster their attack. Although those players have scored a selection of goals throughout the season, their general play hasn’t been overly reliable, losing the ball too frequently.
Derby’s creativity has been inadequate throughout the campaign, as they’ve only scored 13 open-play goals, with only Luton Town having a lower volume (12).
Derby’s philosophy on the ball is to be direct and progress it forward towards their wide players, allowing those individuals to compile crosses into the penalty area. This idea is more effective at home, as the Rams have collected 74% of their overall points tally at Pride Park, highlighting the influence that their home supporters provide them.
Although Warne wants their wide players to be effective outlets away from home, they play heavily conservatively – prioritising a structured defensive formation. Therefore, this escalates the pressure on certain individuals to perform match-winning moments within games, which is a tough ask for these Derby players to conduct, at this level.
Although Derby County struggle to create chances, they’re lethal from set-pieces – scoring the same volume of goals from corners and free-kicks, as open play scenarios. The Rams have multiple towering athletes who can connect with the ball convincingly from aerial situations, shrugging opposition players away comfortably before directing headers towards the goal. Curtis Nelson, Ebou Adams & Eiran Cashin are pertinent examples.
Mendez-Laing struggling in front of goal
After a 25-goal contribution season in League One for Derby County, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing has struggled to hit the same heights – only accumulating six goal contributions across 27 league games.
The Guatemalan forward has been wasteful in front of goal as of late, missing critical chances during vital moments within games. For example, Mendez-Laing hit the crossbar unmarked, from close range against Watford. With Derby’s league position decreasing and pressure on Paul Warne mounting, the temporary captain has to be more potent during certain situations.
Opposition added quality
A valid conclusion to make is that Derby County are attempting to compete in the Championship, with a League One level squad. On occasions, this narrative has become evident, as opposition teams have increased the quality of their play in possession.
This was displayed poignantly against Watford, as the Hornets could penetrate through Derby’s aggressive midfielders at ease, playing precise vertical passes to their forward players, at a quick intensity.
Because Paul Warne primarily orchestrates his teams to play man-to-man out of possession, huge volumes of territory can often become available, especially if the pressing triggers are timed incorrectly. This is an area of the game where Warne’s side can become much better, as they have the necessary personnel within the group to win turnovers in advanced zones of the pitch.
With a plethora of teams across the Championship effective at retaining possession at high intensity in attacking areas, Derby has struggled to maintain their energy-demanding formula — resulting in gaps emerging across various dangerous zones.
Furthermore, Derby lacks defensive athletes with quick physical traits across the backline, making them perceptible at conceding counter-attack goals. Excluding Cashin, Derby’s defenders have struggled to execute successful recovery tackles, due to the lack of acceleration amongst the side.
Fixture complexities
Derby’s upcoming games are difficult for varying reasons. They play Sunderland & Sheffield United at home in their next games. From a difficulty perspective, that’ll challenge the Rams, especially as those teams have the additional quality which Paul Warne’s side lacks.
However, Derby has some tricky matches against teams around their league position, increasing the pressure on those games to pick up points. The Rams face Cardiff (A) & Oxford United (H) in their next five matches, with points needed, to extend their margin away from the bottom three.
The East Midlands outfit still has to play four of the bottom five relegation candidates away from home which could be problematic, considering they’ve only collected one away win in the league, across the campaign.
Conclusion
The negative momentum around Derby is developing rapidly, as Curtin Nelson has sustained a long-term injury. Nelson has been an instrumental figure for the club across the last eighteen months, providing consistent defensive reliability.
Although Derby’s injury list is starting to exacerbate, there’s been a huge discrepancy between their home and away performances – causing fan unrest, as they want to see their side consistently more competitive.
Despite fans understandably frustrated with current performances, Derby needs their supporters to be behind Warne and his players, as Pride Park can be a genuine catalyst to collect points, especially as results will be hard to accumulate away from home.
Paul Warne needs to be wary that teams are finding solutions against his aggressive out-of-possession structure, with adaptability required to overcome this torrid losing streak.
The Rams are not one of the richest clubs in the league, but due to the calibre of the club, expectations will always remain high — keeping the pressure firmly on Paul Warne. Warne has managed the pressure effectively in League One, but whether he’ll be awarded continuous time, whilst Derby is lingering in a relegation battle remains to be seen.