Following their relegation last season, fans and pundits alike predicted Birmingham City as the favourites for the Sky Bet League One title this season. Chris Davies’ side have certainly lived up to expectations and are currently top of the division.Â
Flexing their muscles in the market
Before delving into Birmingham’s on-field performance this season, it is perhaps appropriate to first address the elephant in the room: their backing off the pitch.
The club’s chairman, Tom Wagner, has not only invested heavily in the stadium but has also heavily backed Chris Davies on the pitch, breaking the League One transfer record three times throughout their summer rebuild.
The club’s total transfer outlay this summer was reportedly between £20-25 million as they brought in 17 players. Of these, Jay Stansfield was the highlight, joining from Fulham for around £15 million.
Birmingham also brought in Kieran Dowell, Grant Hanley and Lee Myung-jae in the January transfer window.
However, it is also important to note that while they have splashed the cash, several players have departed the club this season. While some left for free, fees were also received for some, such as Jordan James, who left for a reported £4 million this summer.
The amount of money spent by the club this season led to claims from fans that missing out on promotion was not an option. Well, it is safe to say that they are currently living up to the hype.
Current form
Birmingham have enjoyed an unbelievable season so far and, at the time of writing, sit seven points clear of Wycombe Wanderers in second. In their last game, they showed their quality by outclassing Cambridge United in a fantastic 4-0 win at St Andrews.
The result saw the Blues extend their unbeaten run in the league, having last tasted defeat on November 23rd with a 3-2 loss to Shrewsbury Town. Since then, the league leaders have won 11 and drawn three.
A large reason for this incredible run of form is their rock-solid defence. Birmingham have conceded just 19 goals this season, conceding 0.7 goals per match, and have the third most clean sheets in the division.
Additionally, they have enjoyed fine form in front of goal and are the second-highest scorers in the league, with an average of 1.8 goals scored per match. Summer signing Jay Stansfield also has the most goal contributions in the league this season with 17.
Additionally, Stansfield is the second-highest scorer in the league with 15, and strike partner Alfie May has also hit double digits with 10.
How do Birmingham compare to previous League One winners?
A good way to measure how good Birmingham have been this season is to compare them to previous League One champions. So, let’s take a look at the last five winners of the division and how their points per game (PPG) and final points totals compare.
Previous League One winners:
- 2019/20: *Coventry City- 67 points, 1.97 PPG
- 2020/21: Hull City- 89 points, 1.93 PPG
- 2021/22: Wigan Athletic- 92 points, 2.00 PPG
- 2022/23: Plymouth Argyle- 101 points, 2.20 PPGÂ
- 2023/24: Portsmouth- 97 points, 2.11 PPG
*Season concluded early due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Birmingham City currently find themselves on 66 points after playing 28 games this season with a PPG of 2.36. The average number of points required to win League One from the last five years is 89. With 66 points on the board, Birmingham require just 23 more from their remaining 18 games to hit that number.
An encouraging statistic for Blues fans to read is that in their last 18 games in the league, they have amassed a total of 37 points. In this run, they have won 11, drawn four and lost once. This sort of form should fill Birmingham fans with optimism that their team could hit this number and wrap the league title up with relative ease.
Additionally, they currently have a noticeably higher PPG than any of the league’s previous winners from the last five years. This shows that Chris Davies’ side are hitting the standards required to win the division.
While there are still 18 games to play and lots of twists and turns possible, this again is a promising stat for Birmingham’s title hopes.
A record-breaking season?
While Birmingham have already broken League One records off the pitch this season, there is still a chance that they could break records on it. The maximum points tally that they can achieve this campaign is an astonishing 120.
The record points total achieved in the third tier is 103 by Wolverhampton Wanderers in the 2013/14 season. In that season, Wolves achieved a PPG of 2.24, marginally lower than the current total of this season’s leaders.
Additionally, the goals scored/conceded per 90 is also similar between the two sides. Wolves scored 1.93 goals per game and conceded an average of 0.67 per game, whereas Birmingham, as previously stated, have scored 1.8 and conceded 0.7 per match.
The statistics clearly show that Birmingham have what it takes to potentially have a record-breaking season and that catching them will be an extremely difficult task. With 18 games left to play, Chris Davies has his side in a fantastic position, and it is hard to look past them lifting the League One title come the end of the season.
The Blues host play-off hopefuls Charlton Athletic in their next League One game on Saturday.