Jannik Sinner is set to miss out on the next three months of ATP competitions. This follows a decision by the World Anti-Doping Agency over two positive drug tests last year.
Sinner currently sits atop the ATP Rankings with 11,330 points (as of 17 February), 3,195 points more than Alexander Zverev, who is second-ranked. Those points mean that Zverev could win a tennis Grand Slam and still not move into first place.
The ban guarantees Sinner will be absent from the 9th of February until 4th of May. With this in mind, his fellow top 10 ranked players will be pouncing at the opportunity to claim points and close in on Sinner’s tally.
Saying this, the main question is not how many ranking points his rivals can gain but how many Jannik Sinner will lose.
How do players lose ranking points?
The way that ranking points work is more complicated than it appears at the surface.
Whilst it is obvious that the points gained relate to the name of the competition, i.e. the ATP 500 Dallas Open awards 500 ranking points to the winner. It is less obvious how to retain and lose points.
Players can participate in as many tournaments as they want in a year, but only their best 19 results will count. This isn’t over an infinite period, either (otherwise, Federer would still be tied as the world number one), but the last 52 weeks.
If a player doesn’t defend their title in a competition in the following year, then they lose those points. This means that a year-long absence can sometimes cause significant drops in rankings.
Lastly, for the top 30 players, the rules are different. Each of the four grand slams competed in count towards their rank, regardless of performance. This result will replace the player’s lowest ranking points gained from their 19 best competitions.
Other intricacies can influence rankings, such as a protected ranking following a long-term injury. However, this is all you need to know about Jannik Sinner’s absence!
What tournaments will Jannik Sinner miss?
Jannik Sinner hasn’t competed in a tournament since winning the Australian Open in straight sets. However, his actual ban officially began on February 9th.
With this in mind, these are the biggest tournaments Sinner will miss:
ATP Masters 1000s
- Indian Wells (BNP Paribas Open) | 5 – 16 March
- Miami Open (presented by Itau) | 19 – 30 March
- Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters | 6 – 13 April
- Mutua Madrid Open | 23 April – 4 May
ATP 500s
- Qatar ExxonMobil Open | 17 – 22 February
- Rio Open (present by Claro) | 17 – 23 February
- Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships | 24 February – 1 March
- Abierto Mexicano Telcel (presented by HSBC) | 24 February – 1 March
- Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell | 14 – 20 April
- Bavarian International Tennis Championships (BMW Open) | 14 – 20 April
Sinner will miss a total of 10 ATP 500 and ATP 1000 tournaments, amounting to 7,000 ranking points missed. In addition, seven ATP 250 titles are available in this period.
How many points will Sinner lose?
Of the tournaments in this list, Sinner played just three in 2024. These were the Miami Open, where he won all 1,000 points; Monte-Carlo, where he was knocked out in the semi-final, gaining 400 points; and lastly, Indian Wells, where he was also knocked out in the semis.
At the last of those events, Indian Wells, Sinner left with zero points despite reaching the penultimate stage. This was retroactively enforced on 20 August 2024, where he was required to return the 400 ranking points and USD 325,000 gained at the event.
So, from the same three-month period last year, Jannik Sinner gained just 1,400 points. If we include the Rotterdam ATP 500, which ended on the 9th of February, the start of Sinner’s ban, then he earned 1,900 ranking points.
This might seem like a significant amount, and to a player outside of the top five, it is; however, it is just a tenth of the points Sinner currently has. His current total includes the 500 lost by his absence at the recent Rotterdam Open, and even after losing the extra 1,400, he will still be on 9,930, 1,735 more ranking points than second place Zverev.
How many ranks can Jannik Sinner realistically drop?
As mentioned, Sinner is far ahead in the rankings than any other player. The only two players that can catch him in this period are Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz.
As Alcaraz is currently on 7,410 points and has to defend his Indian Wells title, it is fairly unlikely that he will reach Sinner’s points tally before 6 May. However, should he defend Indian Wells and win three other competitions (two of which have to be an ATP 1000), then he can mathematically reach Sinner’s rank.
Alexander Zverev is the only player who can rationally overtake Sinner. As mentioned, the Italian will be 1,735 points ahead of Zverev after the ban if Zverev only matched his performance last year.
As Zverev didn’t win any titles in this period of last year (his best result was reaching the semi-final of the Miami Open), he has a great opportunity to improve his points tally. Winning an ATP Masters and an ATP 500, as well as performing well in another ATP 1000 event, should give the German the 1,735 points required to become the ATP No. 1 for the first time in his career.
Do you think Zverev can reach the number one spot whilst Sinner is absent? Let us know on X or BlueSky @TheDeckNews.
If you liked this article, then you should check out our article on which Brits could win their first ATP title in 2025.