Will Notts County Beat Walsall to the League Two Title?

Notts County are currently firmly in the mix to win the League Two title this season, but does Stuart Maynard’s side have enough to overtake Walsall or will they fall short?

The Magpies are currently second in the division, sitting seven points behind Walsall with a game in-hand over the Saddlers and that has led to plenty of speculation from supporters that the club could be in line to win League Two this season.

Stuart Maynard’s side retained the services of Alassana Jatta during the January transfer window, whilst the club also welcomed back star forward Jodi Jones following his injury setback and kept loanee George Abbott in the building.

These players have provided Notts County with plenty of key moments during their respective stints with the League Two side and will be vital assets towards their quest to overtake Walsall and win the division.

In April 2024, The Deck’s Callum released an article explaining why he felt Stuart Maynard needed to be backed by the Magpies supporters and why he was the right man to take them forward. Ten months on and the club find themselves in a much stronger position to lift the League Two title this season.

Firstly, let’s begin by taking a look at Notts County’s statistical chances…

How good of a chance do Notts County have?

Notts County may have suffered a narrow defeat against Walsall on New Year’s Day, but that was their only defeat in their last ten league matches.

Eight of those ten matches have resulted in victories, with the Magpies currently on a three-match winning run, whilst also being four matches unbeaten on the road.

According to statistics website OPTA, Walsall have a 56.68% chance of winning the League Two title, whilst Notts County’s chances are just 13.64%. The Magpies do have a 55.52% chance of gaining automatic promotion, suggesting they will be one of the Saddlers’ biggest challengers.

Similarly, the website also have an ‘expected’ table, which is where they evaluate where they believe each team within a respective league will finish. OPTA have placed Notts County third, with Walsall (1st) and Doncaster Rovers (2nd) finishing higher.

Therefore, from a statistical perspective, it does seem unlikely that Notts County will win League Two this season, but their recent form suggests otherwise.

Between now and the end of the season, Walsall have the easier run-in (1.32 vs 1.40), but over the past ten matches, Notts County have picked up the most points in the league (25 out of 30) whilst the Saddlers have managed 17 out of 30.

Walsall’s PPG over the course of the campaign is 2.0, whilst their recent form (last eight) has fallen to 1.38. Meanwhile, Notts County’s season PPG is 1.83, but their recent form has seen it increase to 2.38.

Below is a table projecting the points that both sides are expected to finish on if their PPG rates are followed.

Therefore, although Walsall have had the better season on paper so far, if current form is followed between now and the end of the 2024/25 campaign, it will indeed be the Magpies that lift the title.

What do the club’s supporters make of their chances?

Whilst the statistics confirm that Notts County stand a very good chance at being automatically promoted this season, it does vary as to whether they could win the title rather than settle for a top three finish.

The Deck’s Callum spoke to Notts County fan and one-half of the Notts2TalkAbout podcast, K-Ci Rennicks who stated…

‘I am still on the fence about the league title. I think we have entered a busy period in the season and our form suggests that we will have what it takes to go all the way.

‘However, I still think the real test is yet to come. We look as though we are in the race for another title and we have been here before in what was the most dramatic the lower tiers of English football has seen for quite some time now.

‘I think Stu (Stuart Maynard) deserves absolutely heaps of praise, as do the players and in truth, everyone associated with the club for getting to this stage.’

Addressing his thoughts on the club’s recruitment so far this season, Rennicks added…

’We knew how important the summer was and we got it right, Matty Platt, Jacob Bedeau and Alex Bass have all been immense, retaining key players and adding quality such as George Abbott.’

Moving onto discussions about Notts County’s biggest challengers (Walsall) he said…

‘It sounds crazy to say but genuinely I haven’t been impressed with anyone we’ve faced this season, especially as we have lost to the top side twice. 

‘Their downfall suggests that I have a point and now I am really excited. The mentality is game as a time, and if we beat what is in front of us, we only have to worry about the team above us and that gap continues to decrease. 

‘Exciting times ahead, and I would love the title to come to the (Meadow) Lane, so we will see if we are celebrating in May but I am full of confidence in this team as they continue to give us nothing but reassurance that they are in this for the long haul. 

‘We will lose again, that is natural, but we always bounce back. That is a sign of a team who become champions so who knows…’
 

What do Notts County need to maintain to stand a fighting chance?

Tonight (Thursday 13th February), Notts County face sixth-place Port Vale, before entering a series of fixtures that are certainly on the favourable side for the Magpies.

Notts County need to ensure that they take full advantage of those fixtures, especially given they are entering form at the perfect time. That’s because their biggest title rivals are constantly dropping points lately (though they will come out of it in my opinion) and others are still bedding in new talent from the previous transfer window.

With Jodi Jones coming back into the mix, as well as new signing Mai Traore, Notts County are set for a major boost in the final third moving into the business end of the season.

If they can continue to take their chances in front of goal and avoid any key defensive injuries, there is no reason why Stuart Maynard’s side can’t go on to overtake Walsall and lift the League Two title this season.

Readers, who do you think will win League Two?