After sealing promotion from League One to the Championship, Wrexham are currently building towards their first season in the second tier for 43 years.
Having won promotion from League Two and League One at the first time of asking, there is debate as to how Wrexham will fare stepping up to the Championship. Many will argue that they could carry their positive momentum on into next season and consolidate but some may see it as a season of struggling to compete at a higher level.
Since the 2015-16 season, 29% of teams have been relegated back to the third tier at the first time of asking. The average points total for the sides promoted between the divisions is 52.8 which is no doubt improved by Ipswich Town’s points total of 96 in 2023-24.
Over the previous two seasons, Luton Town and Birmingham City were relegated with 49 and 50 points respectively which is significantly higher than the two years prior (44 and 37 points). Given this, it could suggest the quality of the teams at the bottom of the second tier is increasing which would require sides promoted from League One to get even greater points totals to survive.
The question will be whether Wrexham will be one of the relegation candidates during the 2025-26 season or will they settle into the Championship and have a comfortable season. Using statistics from Fotmob, this article will take a look at some of the factors that will affect Wrexham’s ability to steer clear of a relegation battle during the 2024-25 season.
Wrexham’s Recruitment
Much has been made of the money spent by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney’s Wrexham in the lower divisions. There has undoubtedly been an emphasis on recruiting players who are older and experienced in the divisions which they were looking to win promotion to such as Jay Rodriguez, James McClean, Matthew James and Steven Fletcher.
In League One, the North Wales side had the second highest average squad age with 28.4 years. In order to compete in the second tier, there will likely need to be a shift in the recruitment strategy as a number of players such as McClean and James may not be able to perform consistently at the higher level.
Wrexham have been linked to a number of older players who are likely coming to the end of their career such as Johnny Evans, Jamie Vardy and Craig Dawson. Whilst their experience would be a benefit, these types of players are all aged 35 and over which may lead to them struggling to compete with the speed and requirements of the Championship over 46 game season.
Should Wrexham wish to steer clear of the drop, the club will likely have to look into recruiting players with greater ability to play consistently at the top of their game over the 46 game season.
Wrexham’s Style of Play
One characteristic of Phil Parkinson’s Wrexham that could help them steer clear of relegation trouble is their style of play. The League One runners up are known for quite an attritional and direct style of play.
During their League One campaign, the Red Dragons had the most clean sheets in the division with 24 and conceded the joint lowest number of goals per match with 0.7 goals. This defensive strength may allow them to avoid relegation trouble especially considering the three teams relegated from the second tier this season were ranked 21st, 23rd and 24th for goals conceded per match.
On top of their defensive solidity, Wrexham’s direct style of play may suit their task of consolidating in the Championship. In the third tier, there was a clear emphasis from Phil Parkinson to get the ball up-field and to their wide threats quickly having ranked third for accurate long balls per match (30.7 long balls) and first for accurate crosses per match (5.8 accurate crosses).
This style may allow Wrexham to put attacking pressure on their Championship opponents quicker compared to teams who play a possession heavy style of football. Having been promoted to the Championship in 2024, Portsmouth found out how difficult it is to compete in the second tier trying to play out from the back, as emphasised by their head coach John Mousinho:
“At the start of the season, we were probably too focused on trying to build from the back and it cost us”
“One of the big differences in League One is when you are winning the league and going to sides, a lot of the time they sit off you and they let you play”
This suggests that sides that are promoted into the Championship with a heavy possession style of play find it harder to adapt to the jump up in quality. With this in mind, the ability Wrexham have shown at getting the ball forward quickly suggests they may have enough to avoid a relegation scrap.
Wrexham’s Underlying Data
Despite their impressive defensive statistics from League One, Wrexham’s underlying numbers may suggest that they will struggle to avoid a relegation battle in the second tier. If the League One table was based upon expected goals (xG) then Wrexham would have finished in 9th place.
Despite having the joint best defence in the league, the North Wales side conceded 46.3 xG across the season which was 12.3 higher than their total goals conceded. This suggests that defensively, Phil Parkinson’s side gave up significantly more goal scoring opportunities than their goals conceded suggests.
This may be down to wasteful finishing from opponents and good goalkeeping from Arthur Okonkwo. It is unlikely that stepping up to the Championship that opponents will be as wasteful with their chances which suggests that Wrexham could concede more goals than they did in League One.
It is not just defensively where Wrexham have over performed their underlying data. Offensively the Red Dragons created 55.5 xG in League One which was 12.5 goals less than the total goals the club scored.
This, similar to defensively, suggests that Phil Parkinson’s side regularly scored difficult goals and relied on poor goalkeeping from their opposition. A trend which may not continue with the club stepping up a division.
With this in mind, Wrexham may need to look at diversifying their attack in order mitigate the potential impact of Championship opponents taking more of the chances the Red Dragons give up.
Wrexham’s Home Form vs Away Form
One crucial factor for Wrexham in ensuring that they keep themselves clear of the relegation battle will be their home form. Over the past few seasons, the Red Dragon’s form at the STōK Cae Ras has allowed them to compete for promotion.
In League One, the North Wales side suffered two defeats and picked up an average of 2.3 points-per-game at home compared to six defeats and 1.7 PPG away from home. Having a good home form could be the difference between consolidating in the Championship and struggling to survive in the division.
When looking at Portsmouth’s 2024-25 season, Mousinho’s side had the joint eighth best home record in the division. At Fratton Park they picked up 1.74 PPG compared with 0.61 PPG away from home.
Their strong home form allowed them to finish the season five points clear of the drop and secure Championship safety with two games remaining. Wrexham will no doubt want to be more competitive on the road than Portsmouth were, but will need to ensure they carry their good form at the STōK Cae Ras into the 2025-26 season.
Will Wrexham be in a relegation battle next season?
There is no doubt that Wrexham will face a greater number of challenges during the 2025-26 season than they have during their recent meteoric rise. Given the step up in the quality of opposition, the North Wales side will have to keep their impressive home form going should they wish to consolidate in the Championship.
Despite their home form and playing style, Phil Parkinson’s side are likely to find it tough to compete with the big spenders in the division and may struggle to avoid being sucked into a relegation battle.