We are nearing the end of the European season, with most of the UEFA coefficient battles having already concluded. There are only three races left, and the pressure intensifies heading into the second legs of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League round of 16.
Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis following the first legs of the last 16.
Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.
UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking
The seasonal ranking, where there was a key change. That came in the second European Performance Spot, as Spain jumped ahead of a weak Germany. It is starting to feel like the top two are settled.
Of course, England has all but secured top spot, despite having a horrid week where just one of their nine teams won. It was a stunning performance from the Premier League, but fortunately for them, they are already in a very strong position.
The big winner of the week, however, is Spain.
| National Association | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left | 24/25 Coefficient |
| 1. England (=) | 22.847 (53-13-20) | 0.555 (1-3-5) | 9 (9) | 29.464 |
| 2. Spain (+1) | 18.406 (39-12-25) | 1.000 (3-2-1) | 6 (8) | 23.892 |
| 3. Germany (-1) | 18.142 (33-12-22) | 0.571 (1-2-2) | 5 (7) | 18.421 |
| 4. Italy (=) | 17.928 (34-13-23) | 0.571 (1-2-1) | 4 (7) | 21.875 |
| 5. Portugal (=) | 17.000 (29-9-15) | 0.400 (1-0-2) | 3 (5) | 16.250 |
| 6. France (+1) | 15.678 (31-11-26) | 0.714 (2-1-1) | 4 (7) | 17.928 |
| 7. Poland (-1) | 15.250 (31-11-14) | 0.000 (0-0-2) | 2 (4) | 11.750 |
LaLiga’s teams combined for three wins and just one defeat across six. Two of those victories came in the UCL, which saw them pass Germany. The Bundesliga teams ended up with a 1-2-2 record, which was far from ideal. That is not promising, and if next week continues with that trend, it could very well spell the end of their hopes of an EPS.
Germany’s one win came at the expense of Italy, which pretty much ends their hopes for a top two berth. With that said, the Serie A is guaranteed at least 0.428 points, with the winner of the second leg between AS Roma and Bologna collecting the majority (or all) of those points. Two Italian teams will be out after the round of 16, and if Fiorentina gets knocked out in the UECL, that ends their hopes altogether.
Portugal earned just one win, with both Sporting CP and Sporting Braga losing without scoring. It leaves a very difficult challenge now for the Iberian nation, who looked quite serious in this race a month ago. If they do lose any teams after this round, we can safely eliminate them.
France passed Poland for sixth spot in the year, though neither have any realistic shot at this rate.
So, for the second legs, keep a close eye on the Spanish and German sides, who will need to be at their best to progress and keep their respective countries’ shot at an EPS.
UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking
Battle for Ninth/Tenth: Can Czechia Hold On?
The most meaningful race left outside of the EPS battle is the race for top 10, where Türkiye is set to claim ninth, while Czechia is in serious danger of losing out on 10th.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 9. Türkiye | 51.475 | 10.675 (20-9-19) | 0.400 (1-0-1) | 2 (5) |
| 10. Czechia | 48.525 | 11.025 (17-16-19) | 0.200 (0-1-1) | 2 (5) |
| 11. Greece | 47.912 | 13.700 (21-21-14) | 0.800 (2-0-0) | 2 (5) |
| 12. Poland | 46.250 | 15.250 (31-11-14) | 0.000 (0-0-2) | 2 (4) |
Greece had another amazing week, where both Panathinaikos and AEK Athens prevailed. The latter has all but secured their quarterfinal spot in the Conference League, and Pana has a more than decent shot at doing the same in the Europa League. If both go through, that spells trouble for Czechia and Poland.
The Czechs did not grab a win, though Sigma Olomouc earned a surprising draw. That could give them hope to stay alive. At least one of them and Sparta needs to advance from their tie, otherwise, with the gap now at just 0.633, it is a near certainty that Greece will pass them.
Poland is near elimination as well, especially seeing that both of their remaining teams lost their first legs. While it is not fully game over in either tie, there is a tough task ahead for both Lech Poznań and Raków Częstochowa to keep their country alive. Regardless, it has been an incredible season from the Poles, even if they cannot end it in the top 10.
It is becoming more and more clear that it will be Czechia versus Greece for the final place in the top 10. Can Sigma and Sparta keep the former alive, or will Panathinaikos and AEK Athens push the Greeks over the line?
Battle for 22nd: Hungary One Step Closer
Things are looking very clear in the battle for 22nd spot in the UEFA coefficient ranking, as Hungary is closing in on the spot.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 22. Hungary | 26.687 | 7.437 (15-6-10) | 0.500 (1-0-0) | 1 (4) |
| 23. Serbia | 25.750 | 4.750 (12-5-9) | N/A | 0 (4) |
| 24. Romania | 25.250 | 5.750 (15-6-17) | N/A | 0 (4) |
| 25. Ukraine | 24.912 | 7.312 (16-5-13) | 0.500 (1-0-0) | 1 (4) |
| 26. Slovenia | 23.968 | 5.875 (12-8-11) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
Ferencváros pulled off a stunning win in the UEL, and if they advance, that should put this race to bed. Even though Shakhtar Donetsk also won their game, the likelihood of them helping Ukraine overcome a lead of 1.765 at this stage is very unlikely. The best hope now for the Ukrainians is that Shakhtar goes all the way in the UECL and Fradi gets knocked out in the UEL on Wednesday. Anything less, and this race is over.
Slovenia for all intents and purposes no longer as any hope, as Celje suffered a heavy first leg loss at home.
Wednesday’s very early kickoff will in essence decide this race, as if Fradi holds on, Hungary should get over the line. Anything else though, and we could be heading into the quarterfinals with this race not yet resolved.
A Look at Everyone Else
We conclude this analysis by looking at the other countries left. Just seven here, where all but two of them saw their remaining sides win.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 6. Portugal | 69.666 | 17.000 (29-9-15) | 0.400 (1-0-2) | 3 (5) |
| 7. Netherlands | 67.345 | 9.305 (24-6-33) | 0.333 (1-0-0) | 1 (6) |
| 8. Belgium | 62.250 | 11.400 (18-7-15) | 0.400 (1-0-0) | 1 (5) |
| 13. Denmark | 42.106 | 12.250 (21-10-8) | 0.500 (1-0-0) | 1 (4) |
| 14. Norway | 41.237 | 7.650 (17-10-16) | 0.400 (1-0-0) | 1 (5) |
| 15. Cyprus | 35.693 | 12.156 (21-13-13) | 0.250 (0-1-0) | 1 (4) |
| 20. Croatia | 27.906 | 6.787 (12-7-12) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
Portugal officially secured sixth place this week, though this was already known to be the case for quite sometime. They had a poor week though, with just one win. Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway also saw victories in from their last teams. That is a positive, with the latter two having a more than decent year. All four will still look back at this campaign and reflect on what could have been, and that is despite the Belgians and Danes surpassing the 10.000 mark.
Cyprus still has hope of piling onto their impressive campaign, having grabbed a draw through AEK Larnaca. If they can pull off another shock, then the Cypriots could near 13.000 points on the season.
As for Croatia, Rijeka lost their first leg in the UECL, and bar an unlikely comeback, they will end the year with their current total. Still, a 20th place finish, especially seeing they were in stuck in the race for 22nd for much of the term, has to be seen as a win – something they can build off of next season.