Can Cheltenham Town Avoid Relegation? – Opinion

Cheltenham Town currently face an uphill battle in their quest for survival, but can the League One side avoid relegation this season or is it a case of it being too little too late for the Robins?

On Saturday, the Robins were beaten 3-1 by Wycombe Wanderers in a result which leaves them 22nd in League One, seven points from safety although crucially Darrell Clarke’s side have two matches in hand on their relegation rivals.

The season so far

Darrell Clarke’s side (then managed by Wade Elliott) suffered a horrendous start to the season, failing to score in any of their opening 11 league matches, before finally netting in game number 12 which in turn was a 1-1 draw against promotion-chasing Derby County.

However, after a dismal start as well as the departure of manager Wade Elliott, the Robins managed to finish 2023 with increased credibility losing just two of their last eight matches of the year in a positive run that saw the club pick up victories against Shrewsbury Town, Carlisle United and Oxford United.

The January transfer window

Heading into the opening of the January transfer window, Cheltenham Town sat 23rd in the table, sitting just three points from safety. The Robins beat Portsmouth but lost their other three league games and are currently on a run of three straight defeats ahead of their clash with Burton Albion in mid-week.

The transfer window also wasn’t kind for the Robins after they lost star striker Will Goodwin to fellow League One side Oxford United as well as suffering an injury to fellow forward Rob Street. Midfielder Curtis Thompson and defender Liam Smith also departed to League Two side Grimsby Town.

However, the Robins arguably have a much stronger squad now than they did heading into the transfer window and that should be seen as a huge plus by the club’s supporters. Experienced midfielder Tom Pett signed a new contract, whilst playmaker Josh Harrop and fellow midfielder Liam Kinsella joined the club, improving the spine of the League One side.

Defenders Andy Smith (Hull City, loan) and Jack Shepherd (Barnsley, loan), as well as midfielders Jordan Thomas (Bath City, permanent) and Greg Sloggett (Dundalk, permanent), joined the League One side. The window was finished with the additions of strikers Matty Taylor (Forest Green Rovers, permanent) and Joe Nuttall (Oldham Athletic, loan).

February is make or break

Currently, Cheltenham Town have 18 cup finals left to save their League One status and are seven points from safety. During February, Cheltenham will have six league games to play but five of those are against sides in the bottom half of the table. Blackpool are the only exception and that game is essentially a ‘free-hit’ for the Robins, whilst Wigan Athletic (13th) and Cambridge United (14th) won’t be easy.

If the Robins can finish the month with at least seven points (minimum) from those matches, they will be back to within touching distance of safety, especially if they manage to beat Port Vale who are the side Cheltenham are trying to overtake.

However, if the club take six points or less, or indeed they concede points against Port Vale and/or Burton Albion, it will place a further strain on the squad’s morale and will see them head into a very difficult March having to try and get results against the likes of Peterborough United or Oxford United.

Can they stay up?

The ultimate factor on whether or not Cheltenham Town can stay up will solely depend on their league position after their home fixture against Burton Albion at the start of March. If the Robins have managed to pick up at least seven points (minimum) by that stage, they stand to face a much more likely prospect of confirming their survival.

However, if their recruits can’t end their run of defeats quickly, the results by March will ultimately slam the final nail into their League One coffin for the time being.

During the January transfer window, Darrell Clarke has focussed on improving the spine of his team and made some extremely bold decisions that he felt were essential to keeping the club in League One. Matty Taylor scored on his debut and has the experience to help the younger players, as does Tom Pett and Liam Kinsella.

What do you think? Can Cheltenham Town avoid relegation this season or have they simply left themselves with too much to do?