League One: Who Will Finish Sixth? – Statistics & Opinion

The majority of sides in League One now have just seven matches left to play, but today I have opted to analyse which club will achieve the final play-off place.

To work out which sides were still in with a shot, I decided to closely examine the current League One standings. Portsmouth, Derby County and Bolton Wanderers all sit ahead of sixth, whilst Peterborough United and Barnsley also appear to be ‘too far’ ahead of the chasing pack.

Similarly, Northampton Town sit ten points behind the sixth spot and are extremely unlikely to lodge a late challenge, which leaves five sides competing for one play-off place.

Oxford United currently occupy the final spot, ahead of Stevenage, Lincoln City, Blackpool and Leyton Orient, with all teams split by just five points with seven games to go.

Using factors such as remaining fixtures, PPG and my personal opinion, here are my findings about which team will win the race for the top six and which four will miss out.

I have done this for the League One relegation fight, but now it’s time to look at the top end of League One.

Let’s begin…

6th) Oxford United – 63 points

Des Buckingham’s Oxford United were at one stage contenders for automatic promotion, but a frustrating run of form following Liam Manning’s departure has seen the club slip down the League One standings.

Remaining fixtures;

• Shrewsbury Town (A)
• Fleetwood Town (H)
• Burton Albion (A)
• Peterborough United (H)
• Lincoln City (H)
• Stevenage FC (H)
• Exeter City (A)

On paper, Oxford United have a great chance to pick up nine points from their next three games as they face sides competing to avoid relegation. This is then followed up with three games against sides directly surrounding them in the table, meaning they need to take full advantage quickly.

What is their expected points finish?

Throughout the 2023/24 season, Oxford United have established a season PPG (points per game) of 1.62, but this has since fallen to 1.38 due to a turn in form. This means the club are likely to earn between 9.66 and 11.34 points, averaging out at 10.5 (rounded up to 11).

This will put Oxford United onto 74 points, which could prove to be enough to keep themselves in top-six contention.

7th) Stevenage FC – 62 points

Steve Evans’ Stevenage have been a regular feature in the battle for the top six this season, but could they be in line for back-to-back promotions?

Remaining fixtures;

• Bolton Wanderers (H)
• Charlton Athletic (A)
• Exeter City (A)
• Barnsley FC (H)
• Burton Albion (H)
• Oxford United (A)
• Cheltenham Town (H)

Taking a look at Stevenage’s fixtures will present at least three opportunities for Steve Evans’s side to maximise their points total and push for a top-six finish.

What is their expected points finish?

So far this season, Stevenage have established a season PPG of 1.59, but this has since dropped to just 1.13 due to a frustrating run of form. This means that the club are set to earn between 7.91 and 11.13 points over their last few matches, averaging at 9.52 (rounded up to 10).

This means that the club are likely to finish on 72 points, which won’t be enough to finish inside of the top six.

8th) Lincoln City – 61 points

Moving onto League One’s most in-form side, Lincoln City have risen from nowhere to move to within touching distance of the play-off places and a potential place in the Championship next season.

Remaining fixtures;

• Leyton Orient (H)
• Carlisle United (A)
• Reading FC (A)
• Wigan Athletic (H)
• Oxford United (A)
• Cheltenham Town (A)
• Portsmouth FC (H)

Despite having a couple of difficult league matches on the horizon, Lincoln’s current form matched with their upcoming fixtures presents them with an excellent opportunity to finish inside the top six.

What is their expected points finish?

Throughout the season so far, Lincoln City have a PPG of 1.56, although that has risen to a whopping 2.50 over the last eight matches. This means that the Imps are expected to earn a further 10.92 to 17.5 points, averaging at 14.21 (rounded down to 14).

This will allow the Imps to finish the League One season on 75 points, which will see them finish above both Stevenage and Oxford United.

9th) Blackpool FC – 60 points

Neil Critchley’s Blackpool side have remained within touching distance of the top six for the vast majority of the campaign, but it now appears as though they may have left themselves with too much to do.

Remaining fixtures;

• Derby County (A)
• Wycombe Wanderers (H)
• Cambridge United (H)
• Fleetwood Town (H)
• Carlisle United (A)
• Barnsley FC (H)
• Reading FC (A)

The Tangarines have a tricky Easter weekend, but then face three matches against teams in the bottom five of the table which could be a major factor behind their push for the top six.

What is their expected points finish?

Blackpool have established a season PPG of 1.54 so far this season and like Lincoln, their form PPG has also increased to 1.63. This means the club are expected to earn an additional 10.78 to 11.41 points, averaging out at 11.1 (rounded down to 11).

This will place the club on 71 points, which will be just short of the top six.

10th) Leyton Orient – 58 points

Finally, Richie Wellens’ Leyton Orient have also been a regular feature of the top six fights but they face the difficult task of catching up to the likes of Oxford and Lincoln.

Remaining fixtures;

• Lincoln City (A)
• Peterborough United (H)
• Cheltenham Town (H)
• Exeter City (H)
• Derby County (A)
• Fleetwood Town (H)
• Shrewsbury Town (A)

Unfortunately, Leyton Orient’s Easter weekend will see them face two promotion-chasing sides, which could end their top-six hopes altogether.

What is their expected points finish?

So far this season, Leyton Orient have earned a PPG of 1.49, but this has also increased to 1.63 after an up-turn in form. This means Richie Wellens’ side are expected to earn between 10.43 and 11.41 points, averaging at 10.9 (rounded up to 11).

This will allow the club to finish on 69 points which won’t be enough to keep them in contention.

Based on PPG, Who will finish sixth in League One?

For this section, I have compiled three tables based on season PPG, form PPG and the average points each team are expected to earn.

Here are the results…

Who do I think will finish sixth?

Leyton Orient and Blackpool have left themselves with too much to do in my honest opinion, which will rule them out. Stevenage have had an outstanding season and it will be a success even if they don’t make the top six, but I believe they’ll just fall short.

This leaves Oxford United or Lincoln City. Des Buckingham’s Oxford have the best squad in this list, whilst Lincoln City are the division’s most in-form side and I think it will go down to the wire. However, I think Lincoln City will nick it narrowly.

• 6th) Lincoln City (Playoffs)
• 7th) Oxford United
• 8th) Stevenage FC
• 9th) Blackpool FC
• 10th) Leyton Orient

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